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Canarias ante la crisis

El Reino Unido afronta el declive de su petróleo y su gas

 La Cámara de los comunes del Parlamento británico, a través de su Comité de energía y cambio climático, ha publicado el informe “Petróleo y gas off-shore del Reino Unido” en el que se reconoce explícitamente el declive del petróleo de extracción local, así como así como las posibilidades de disminución importante de las inversiones en el sector de la extracción de combustibles fósiles en alta mar (yacimiento del Mar del Norte. El Informe reconoce en todos sus escenarios de trabajo un declive importante de la producción de petróleo en el país, lo que tendrá consecuencias evidentes sobre la economía de esta importante economía mundial, haciéndola cada vez más dependiente de la obtención de recursos energéticos del exterior. Se reconoce igualmente (además de fallos estrepitosos en las predicciones sobre producción realizadas en 1999) que “los nuevos yacimientos que alimentan la producción declinante británica son más pequeños que los antiguos, y además con tasas de declive mucho más rápidas”: las mayores inversiones que hasta este momento se realizaban - con un importante punto de inflexión y descenso previsto para los próximos años - no han evitado ese declive geológico. Aunque el Informe comienza diciendo que “es vital el cambio hacia la descarbonización de la economía del Reino Unido para afrontar sus obligaciones de lucha contra el cambio climático, por lo que debe disminuir el uso de combustibles fósiles”, inmediatamente después se afirma que “Pero mientras tienen lugar estos cambios, el Reino Unido todavía precisará de usar el petróleo y gas que restan en su plataforma continental”, y que hoy suministran el 70% de la energía que usa diariamente el país. En el texto se llega a afirmar que, de mantenerse esta tendencia de falta de inversión y declive, en el año 2020 el Reino Unido únicamente podría satisfacer el 12% de su demanda de petróleo con producción interior.   El informe reconoce el declive del petróleo entorno al 5% anual desde 1999, así como la posibilidad de importantes pérdidas de empleo (en el peor de los casos, hasta 50.000 trabajadores) y producción en los próximos años, debido al descenso de inversión en el sector. En ese sentido, los parlamentarios urgen a medidas fiscales y de otro tipo, que sirvan de apoyo a la prospección y extracción en zonas como la vertiente oeste de las Islas Shetland, al norte de Escocia.   Al tiempo, el Informe habla del “fin del petróleo barato” en el Reino Unido, asumiendo que precios bajos del barril de petróleo disuadirían de la inversión y acelerarían las ya importantes tasas de declive de extracción hoy existentes.     Reuters: Action needed to tap energy reserves Tue Jun 30, 2009 12:10am BST   By Michael Kahn LONDON (Reuters) - Britain needs to do more to help industry tap the country’s remaining oil and gas reserves to ensure its future energy supplies, a government committee said in a report issued on Tuesday. High costs, low prices and lack of affordable credit in a global recession are bedevilling oil and gas companies operating in Britain, making it critical for government action to help fuel investment to maintain production, the report found. “We are very concerned at the bleak prospects for investment in the oil and gas industry,” the Energy & Climate Change Committee said in the report for Parliament. “If the industry’s worst case scenario is realised in 2010, 50,000 jobs could be lost and production could fall by millions of barrels. The government must do what it can to facilitate investment.” Oil and gas production in the nation is declining about five percent annually after peaking in 1999. Government estimates for future production range from 11 billion to 37 billion barrels of oil equivalent. RISK OF DISRUPTIONS Energy security concerns are also key considerations when it comes to boosting Britain’s oil and gas sector, especially as much of the country’s electricity generating capacity is set to close over the next decade, the report noted. The risk of future disruptions due to political and economic turbulence — highlighted by Russia and Ukraine’s ongoing gas dispute — also reinforces the importance of domestic supply, the report found. “In this context the importance of domestically produced oil and gas is obvious and the case for government doing all it can to help maximise economic production is compelling,” the committee said. One thing government ministers should do is work with banks to ensure the energy sector can borrow what it needs to maintain jobs and production during the recession. A new “field allowance” and other measures will also not be sufficient to create the competitive investments in both existing and new fields to deliver a hoped for extra 2 billion barrels of oil, the committee added. The members also urged ministers to work with industry to exploit reserves west of Shetland, an area the committee said potentially offered a fifth of the country’s remaining oil and gas resources. “Britain must appreciate the importance of the resources west of Shetland,” the report states. The report comes as Britain and other European Union nations are moving to a low carbon economy, less dependent on fossil fuels blamed for fuelling climate change. But that does not mean the government should take the pedal off oil and gas production during the transition, the committee members said, urging the government to make the most of the country’s own reserves during this time. “It is in Britain’s interests to exploit its remaining oil and gas resources in a strategic manner, both to help achieve a secure supply of energy and to support the many workers and companies reliant on the industry,” the committee said. (Editing by James Jukwey)  

Petróleo nigeriano

Un ciudadano español consume al día diecinueve veces más petróleo que un nigeriano. Por su parte un residente en Canarias consume veintiocho veces más que un nigeriano, dada la alta dependencia de las islas de este combustible. Buena parte de ese crudo proviene, como sabemos, del África subsahariana. A propósito de la visita del Presidente del gobierno español a Nigeria, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero ,Según los datos de la administración norteamericana, en el año 2008 Nigeria, que ha sido uno de los países con mayor crecimiento de extracción de crudo en los últimos años, “produjo” una media de 2.17 millones de barriles diario de petróleo, y exportó ocho de cada diez barriles, sobre todo a los EE.UU y a los países de la Unión Europea , sumando estas exportaciones el 70% del total, y estando entre la nómina de principales exportadores de crudo del Mundo. Todo ello en un país en el que la población con acceso a la electricidad es el 40% del total (y donde el número de habitantes ha registrado un crecimiento anual de cerca del 3% en las últimas décadas, alcanzando más de 150 millones en el año 2008, según las Naciones Unidas). En Nigeria se despliega el mayor número de empresas internacionales privadas de extracción de petróleo que hoy existen, si exceptuamos a los Estados Unidos. Están presentes todas las grandes del sector, que han visto en el amplio Golfo de Guinea una vía de intentar mantener su poder de extracción, ante la evidencia de que los países con mayor volumen de reservas gestionan con empresas estatales la extracción. Los primeros descubrimientos de petróleo en Nigeria, protagonizados por la holandesa Shell , datan de los años cincuenta del pasado siglo. Comenzó el país en 1958 a extraer cinco mil barriles al día de petróleo y llegó a un primer pico de extracción en el año 1978, con un segundo cenit en el año 2005, algo más de 2,5 millones de barriles al día, convirtiéndose en el undécimo productor mundial de crudo. El techo de descubrimientos de petróleo en este país tuvo lugar a finales de los años setenta, según la recopilación del geólogo Jean Lahèrrere, registrándose después – en los años 90 – una nueva (aunque menor) oleada de hallazgos de yacimientos gigantes, con un antes y un después entre el descubrimiento de petróleo en tierra (siempre en el entorno del delta del Río Níger) y la proliferación de la tecnología “off-shore”, mar adentro, en la búsqueda de yacimientos de alta mar, de importante productividad en los primeros momentos pero también de altas tasas de declive en una segunda fase. Los descubrimientos de yacimientos significativos en alta mar han pasado ya su techo en la pasada década. El investigador de la Universidad sueca de Uppsala, Kristofer Jakobsson, estimó un cenit de producción en Nigeria sobre el año 2010-2012, aunque los conflictos existentes en el Delta del Níger, unido a los recortes de producción de la OPEP (organización a la que Nigeria pertenece desde 1971) han reducido drásticamente la extracción de crudo en más de un 20% en los últimos cuatro años. Del total de las exportaciones de petróleo de este país, España recibe el 5% y los EE.UU. el 44%. Diversos analistas han advertido que el techo de producción de Nigeria puede haberse alcanzado ya, y a ello contribuiría, además del pasado cenit de descubrimientos, la gran tensión existente en una zona donde diferentes movimientos civiles y militares – en forma de guerrillas – están cuestionando – de forma pacífica y también con sabotajes armados y ataques a oleoductos y plataformas – los perjuicios de la industria petrolera en su entorno y la palpable inequidad existente en el reparto de un combustible que ven cómo se exporta masivamente mientras ellos tienen un muy escaso acceso a él. Tanto el gobierno estatal como las mismas petroleras privadas han intentado, con poco éxito y aún menores escrúpulos hacia la integridad de esas poblaciones, aplacar la larvada insurrección de los habitantes de la zona. Las estimaciones realizadas para Nigeria en cuanto al gas natural, sin embargo, contemplan posibilidades de expansión de la producción, entre otras cosas debido al aprovechamiento del gas flaring resultado de la extracción de crudo. Diversos países muy consumidores de petróleo, conscientes de las dificultades del futuro de producción del crudo, han estrechado lazos con Nigeria (uno de los países del Mundo con el índice de desarrollo humano más bajo) con la intención de asegurarse el suministro en los próximos años. Existe una creciente competencia en este y otros países, porque a la tradicional apetencia norteamericana se suma la creciente demanda europea – que ve declinar sus recursos endógenos – y los gigantes asiáticos. Un ciudadano español consume al día diecinueve veces más petróleo que un nigeriano. Por su parte un residente en Canarias consume veintiocho veces más que un nigeriano, dada la alta dependencia de las islas de este combustible. Buena parte de ese crudo proviene, como sabemos, del África subsahariana. En general, la tendencia es el incremento del “conflicto por los recursos” de los hidrocarburos en esa zona, en palabras del investigador M.T. Klare, debido a que los límites de extracción geológicos y los conflictos internos agudizarán los problemas de exportación en un mercado volátil que ya es consciente de que la demanda energética mundial es superior a la oferta existente, con tendencia creciente.

Julio de 2008: cenit del petróleo

 Varios importantes geólogos y analistas del sector de los combustibles fósiles han mostrado su convencimiento de que julio de 2008 supuso una especie de involuntario paso del rubicón hacia un terreno socioeconómico desconocido en los tiempos contemporáneos: entienden que hace algo menos de un año se registró el mayor volumen extraído y procesado de líquidos combustibles de la Historia (con h mayúscula). Como ha repetido hasta la saciedad Colin Campbell, el ex - geólogo de BP o Texaco (entre otras compañías), esta fecha - cuya veracidad tardaremos años en corroborar - no es tan importante como lo es la certeza de que nos acercamos - debido a la velocidad creciente de nuestro apetito energético - a la segunda era del petróleo, de tendencia declinante continua en su disposición, por envejecimiento irreversible de los yacimientos de petróleo. Según la mayoría de estos estudiosos, el fin del petróleo barato supondrá el fin del crecimiento económico sostenido como hoy lo conocemos, dada la íntima relación entre disponibilidad de este combustible y capacidad de expansión del PIB. Por tanto, la crisis económica que hoy vivimos no sería un episodio cíclico más de la historia del capitalismo globalizado sino, vista en perspectiva, el comienzo de una era de convulsa adaptación de la economía a los límites impuestos por la naturaleza, usando de nuevo una expresión de Campbell. El presidente de la Asociación para el estudio del cenit del petróleo y del gas (ASPO), el también geólogo Kjell Aleklett usa una gráfica analogía que nos sirve para ilustrar el poder calorífico del petróleo: el trabajo que permite 50 litros de gasolina equivale al que realizan mil personas durante un día. Si extendemos esta comparación al consumo de petróleo de más de catorce mil millones de litros al día que sirve a un parque de vehículos de cerca de 1.000 millones como hay hoy en el Planeta, y a los centenares de miles de embarcaciones o aeronaves, a decenas de miles de tractores, y un largo etcétera, se puede fácilmente entender la difícil papeleta de sustituir ese ingente subsidio energético fósil, y la quimera de querer, además, crecer económicamente (esto es, usar más energía) año tras año sin el suplemento de la calidad y versatilidad del crudo. Aunque tiene un carácter casi de blasfemia en algunos cenáculos cuestionar el crecimiento del PIB, no parece que existan alternativas serias de recuperación ni brotes verdes convencionales con el recurso básico de nuestra civilización en situación de incapacidad de crecer para atender a la demanda, y menos aún para poder “financiar” crecimientos que es improbable que se mantengan para amortizar la inversión y devolver lo prestado. El Mundo en el año 2008 llegó a extraer y procesar aproximadamente 86.5 millones de barriles de líquidos combustibles, según el informe mensual que, usando datos oficiales, realiza la asociación Aspo Netherlands: el 85% de ese porcentaje proviene del crudo convencional, y el restante 15% de una suma de “líquidos del gas natural”, “pseudo-petróleos” como las arenas bituminosas, o un millón y medio de barriles diarios de agrocombustibles. Todos estos tienen menos retorno energético que el petróleo convencional, y su creciente importancia en la tarta energética tiene que ver con el agotamiento de la capacidad de crecer del crudo fácil. Precisamente el análisis de esta asociación se dirige hacia la constatación de que estamos asistiendo al declinar de la producción por parte de los países de fuera de la OPEP, y a la dificultad de éstos últimos de compensar - sobre todo a partir del año 2010 y de forma grave en el año 2012 - los declives cada vez mayores de los yacimientos de oro negro; declives mayores porque la madurez y declinar de los supergigantes yacimientos descubiertos hace más de cuarenta años se está intentando compensar con la multiplicación en la explotación de medianos y pequeños yacimientos con tasas de descenso en la producción abrumadoramente mayores.   A estos factores habrá que añadirle el importante incremento del consumo por parte de los países productores, hasta hace una década casi despreciable, y que va camino de suponer cerca del 10% del consumo global de crudo. Evidentemente, un factor aún más trascendente es la incipiente incorporación de los llamados países emergentes al club del crecimiento en el consumo y, por tanto, a la pugna por la energía que lo sustenta. De hecho, años antes del probable cenit del año 2008, la espiral alcista del crudo desde 2004 respondió esencialmente a la constatación de que la oferta mundial de petróleo no era suficiente para atender la demanda, lo que dio lugar a un proceso de destrucción de esta última, que hoy vivimos en forma de desempleo creciente y decrecimiento económico.    La imposible predicción del futuro está llena, además, de incertidumbres sobre la estabilidad política de los productores, los efectos multiplicadores de la crisis sobre los propios sectores energéticos de extracción, y un largo etcétera de variables que conviene tener en cuenta y que afectarán - como ya afectan - a la extracción de crudo. Parece que está finalizando la era de la “negación del problema”, y ya importantes representantes del stablishment y  la alta política hablan de la cuestión como un importante reto socioeconómico en los próximos años. Como es sabido, aceptar la dimensión de un asunto es el primer - aunque no suficiente - paso para poder abordar el aprieto económico y energético que viviremos, y que se plasma en cómo podrá afrontar nuestra sociedad “adicta al petróleo” - en palabras del ex - presidente G.W.Bush - las tensiones consecuencia de la poco probable posibilidad de volver a crecer económicamente durante épocas sostenidas, como hasta ahora ha ocurrido de forma que algunos incluso consideraban natural.

Descenso del 20% de los pasajeros del tráfico aéreo en Canarias

Diferentes medios de comunicación como el Diario de Avisos o La Provincia, recogen la noticia del descenso del número de viajeros en Canarias entre enero y mayo de 2009, en un porcentaje del 19.5%, lo que consolida una tendencia iniciada en el año 2008, de repercusión grave de la crisis económica y energética sobre un sector de gran importancia para la economía de las Islas Canarias. El transporte aéreo está especialmente afectado por la falta de expectativas de crecimiento económico, y la crisis financiero - energética está provocando un descenso importante del número de aerolíneas y conexiones aéreas. El declive del petróleo - que algunos geólogos establecen comenzó en julio de 2008 - acelerará esta tendencia en el futuro, lo que afectará en buena medida al futuro económico  y social del archipiélago. Noticia del Diario de Avisos: El número de viajeros en los aeropuertos de Gran Canaria y Tenerife Sur bajaron un 13,3% y un 16,2% respectivamente con lo que al primer aeródromo llegaron 624.948 pasajeros y al segundo 455.223, según informó ayer Aeropuertos Españoles y Navegación Aérea (AENA). Los aeropuertos españoles recibieron 68,6 millones de pasajeros durante los cinco primeros meses del año, lo que supone un descenso del 14% con respecto al mismo periodo del año anterior. De esta cifra total 2.106.896 viajeros se registraron en Canarias. Las cifras en el resto de terminales insulares también arrojan una caída en toda la región y así en Tenerife Norte hubo 335.650 pasajeros (-9,6%); en Lanzarote, 319.452 (-24,5%); en Fuerteventura, 272.587 (-21,1%); en La Palma, 80.945 (-12,2%); en El Hierro, 15.171 (-11,1%) y, en La Gomera, 2.920 (-16,9%). En cuanto al número de operaciones registradas en este mismo mes en el Archipiélago fueron un total de 24.293, siendo el aeropuerto de Gran Canarias con 7.167, el que más registró; no obstante la cifra representó una caída del 17,8% respecto al año anterior. Al aeropuerto de la cocapital canaria, le siguieron los aeropuertos del Norte y el Sur de Tenerife con 5.390 y 3.252 operaciones respectivamentes lo que supuso una caída del 9,6 y el 25,1%. El resto, igual Las caídas en el número de operaciones en las Islas está en consonancia con lo sucedido en el resto del Estado en donde hubo un descenso del 13,2% en el número de operaciones, que se situaron en 859.924 movimientos, y del 18,3% en el transporte de mercancías. Noticia de La Provincia: JAVIER BOLAÑOS Gran Canaria vuelve a convertirse en mayo en el aeropuerto turístico canario que mejor está soportando la pérdida de pasajeros, a pesar de sufrir una disminución de 95.608 viajeros, casi un 13,3% respecto al mismo periodo del año pasado. En conjunto, Canarias sufre una reducción de 409.926 usuarios, casi un 19,5%, según Aeropuertos Españoles y Navegación Aérea (AENA). Los ocho aeropuertos de Canarias registraron el pasado mes un movimiento de 2.106.896 usuarios de entrada y salida, frente a los 2.516.822 personas que lo hicieron en el mismo periodo del pasado año. Es decir, se contabilizaron 409.926 viajeros menos, que representan un 19,5% menos. Estos datos ratifican una vez más el parón que sufre el tráfico aeroportuario. Y no sólo en las Islas, sino en el conjunto de España, donde la merma alcanzó el mes pasado casi un 12%. Gando está sufriendo menos que otros aeropuertos canarios el descenso de la actividad turística. Las estadísticas de AENA indican que en mayo entraron y salieron por sus instalaciones un total de 624.948 personas, lo que supone 95.608 usuarios menos que durante 2008, que en términos porcentuales representa una merma interanual de casi el 13,3%. Mientras, en el acumulado de estos cinco primeros meses del año la caída es del 11%, que suponen 488.758 viajeros menos. En cambio, la bajada experimentada por el principal aeropuerto canario, Tenerife Sur, es superior al 16%. En términos reales, se registró un descenso de 88.251 pasajeros, ya que durante 2009 se contabilizaron 455.223 usuarios. Por su parte, AENA contabilizó en Fuerteventura el movimiento de 272.587 viajeros, esto es, 73.026 menos que el pasado año. Es decir, se cuantificó una bajada de algo más del 21%. El resto de aeropuertos locales menos turísticos también sintieron los efectos de un fuerte descenso del tráfico. Tenerife Norte registró una caída del 9,6%, que supone 35.561 pasajeros menos. El descenso del El Hierro fue de algo más del 11%, frente al 12% de La Palma. Y, por último, el aeropuerto de La Gomera padeció una disminución de casi el 17%.

Artículo de opinion: “Volatilidad del crudo”

 La volatilidad del precio del crudo es algo que ya los geólogos de la Asociación para el estudio del cenit del petróleo y del gas (ASPO) preveían desde hace años, como también advirtieron de la crisis financiera resultante del freno que supuso la escalada del petróleo para la economía mundial. Todo ello dicho sin muchas algaradas y sin que ninguno de ellos tenga un MBA o cualquier otro artilugio de formación en la gestión empresarial al uso, que precisamente suele garantizar que los análisis estén ausentes de anclaje en la realidad física, que es muy tozuda. La tendencia alcista que el precio del petróleo inició, especialmente a partir del año 2004, no es fruto de la casualidad, ni culpa absoluta de los despiadados broker, hoy demonizados, pero en aquellos años figuras endiosadas por la prensa de todos los colores, y deslumbrantes emblemas de éxito e inversión rentable. A partir de ese año la producción de petróleo convencional (el 85% del crudo del mundo y el mejor desde el punto de vista del retorno energético) entró en una meseta muy estable, que dominó siempre in crescendo la extracción mundial de ese recurso. Sin embargo, esa meseta venía a entrar en claro conflicto con una economía rauda con creciente exigencia de energía, especialmente con el tirón de los gigantes asiáticos, empeñados en incorporarse al ritmo de desarrollo occidental, y que parecía sentirse orgullosa de las infinitas construcciones - en adosados o en rascacielos - que la burbuja financiera alimentó hasta hace dos telediarios. La espiral demoníaca del crudo tuvo su primera y brillante presentación en sociedad en julio de 2008, cuando alcanzó la nada desdeñable cifra de los 147$, dando paso a una auténtica huida en desbandada de la economía global hacia los cuarteles de la liquidación de deudas que se sospechaba no iban a ser devueltas. Que nuestro modelo productivo acelerado no precisa de límites físicos para dar rienda suelta a sus crisis cíclicas es de todos conocido; sin embargo, los límites de la expansión petrolera han supuesto un verdadero freno a la globalización que alimentó la economía mundial, y que ha sido el santo y seña de nuestros particulares tiempos modernos. Como es evidente, en el teatro del petróleo, principal recurso de nuestra civilización, tienen un papel destacado los productores, y entre ellos la OPEP. Estos países parecen querer jugar a manejar los precios, aunque vemos cada vez más claro que las riendas del control del importe del barril a medio plazo hace ya un tiempo que se fueron de sus manos; porque, al contrario que lo ocurrido durante décadas, su producción no es suficiente por sí sola para cubrir los déficit crecientes de extracción de otros países que extraen petróleo fuera de su ámbito. La OPEP, también adicta al petróleo - sobre todo al consumo de su  petróleo por parte de otros - precisaría garantizar crecimientos económicos robustos que mantuvieran sus economías, mucho más frágiles de lo que pensamos; los consumidores ricos y los avispados capitales globales son conocedores de los límites físicos, y entienden que cualquier proceso de recuperación en el consumo llevará a una competencia - hoy pacífica - a través de los precios, que subirían de forma volátil, al hablar de un recurso ya claramente insuficiente para alimentar la gran maquinaria de devolución de deuda en el futuro que es nuestra sociedad de producción y consumo crecientes. El resultado de esta dinámica será fruto de la intervención de varios factores: límites claros de expansión petrolera (inclusive los escenarios “optimistas” de la Agencia Internacional de la Energía plantean un “crash” petrolero en pocos años) y tendencia posterior al declive (algo que resulta aún más importante); incertidumbre creciente sobre la viabilidad de proyectos de petróleo no convencional con una economía de baja demanda de petróleo; desconfianza de los mercados que observan que las sacudidas del crudo pueden anegar claramente las posibilidades de recuperación económica y, por tanto, persistencia de los procesos de crisis y amagos de salir de ella; etc. Todos estos elementos se conjugan, junto a otros más mundanos - necesidad de los Estados de los países más ricos de incrementar su recaudación; conflictos larvados en importantes zonas petroleras; etc. - para garantizar volatilidad de los precios del crudo, como estamos viendo. En el periodo 2005 - 2008, el precio del petróleo se multiplicó por cuatro. Ahora, en el periodo del primer semestre de 2009 el precio ya se ha duplicado, tras la estrepitosa caída del año 2008. Todo esto no había ocurrido en la historia del petróleo sin que hubiera estado precedido de conflictos bélicos o incidentes geopolíticos graves. Así, parece que existen elementos estructurales importantes en el futuro del mercado del crudo que, aunque obviados en buena manera por los manuales convencionales, presidirán su precio a partir de estos años - y con él, el devenir de nuestro futuro como sociedad con alto consumo energético -, no siendo el elemento principal en ese conjunto de variables otro sino el probable y más o menos inminente declive del conjunto de la producción mundial, fruto del descenso que la industria de este sector viene registrando en los volúmenes de petróleo descubierto desde hace más de cuatro décadas.

Véspera de Nada

Efectos económicos xerais do teito do petróleo

O texto que reproducimos a continuación procede do libro Un futuro sin petróleo. Colapsos y transformaciones socioeconómicas do profesor de Economía Sustentable da UPV-EHU Roberto Bermejo publicado a finais do pasado ano (pp. 131 e 132). É un moi clarificador resumo do panorama que lles espera ás nosas sociedades como consecuencia do teito ou cénit do petróleo. Los techos del petróleo y del gas supondrán un colapso económico. (…) se producirá un crecimiento explosivo del precio del petróleo (…) aumentan los analistas que prevén precios superiores a 200 dólares (…) en un contexto de gran volatilidad (…). La alta volatilidad se producirá porque, cuando suba mucho el precio, se reducirá drásticamente el consumo y los precios caerán con fuerza. Este hecho activará de nuevo la demanda y el precio alcanzará nuevas cotas. Ese ciclo se repetirá muchas veces, hasta que cambie el modelo energético. Esta dinámica traerá consigo una situación caótica, no sólo en lo económico, sino también en los político. La conjunción de la escalada de los precios del petróleo (reforzada por las del gas y del carbón), de los materiales y de los alimentos está activando ya fuertes tensiones inflacionistas que se reforzarán en el futuro. Y los Gobiernos se verán en la disyuntiva de atajarla elevando mucho el tiepo de interés, con lo cual deprimirán la economía aún más, o aceptar una hiperinflación (y sus efectos desestabilizadores para la economía) para evitar deprimir la economía aún más. Se producirá una aguda escasez de dinero, porque en el sistema financiero los bancos lo crean a partir del endeudamiento. El sistema funciona en una economía en crecimiento, porque los deudores verán aumentadas sus rentas y podrán saldar las deudas, pero no en una economía en recesión. Lo más probable es que, al igual que en la década de los treinta del siglo XX, se creen numerosos sistemas de dinero local. Además, se hundirá el sistema monetario internacional (SMI) basado en el dólar, junto con el sistema financiero mundial. Pero este comercio se reducirá drásticamente, y especialmente el más lejano, lo cual obligará a crear economías fuertemente descentralizadas a todos los niveles: local, comarcal, regional y estatal. (…) Los sectores con más potencial descentralizador serán el energético y el agrícola. Las grandes empresas financieras verán reducido su volumen fuertemente por el colapso del sistema financiero internacional. Las de producción verán imposible continuar con su potente comercio intraempresarial (que supone alrededor del 40% del comercio internacional), lo cual hará inviables numerosas plantas (aparte de la reducción del volumen de producción producida por el impacto de la crisis económica). Así que su tamaño será mucho menor, y sus plantas, situadas en Estados diferentes, serán mucho más autónomas. El comercio internacional se realizará básicamente con los Estados geográficamente más próximos. Se producirá y construirá poco, pero aumentarán las actividades de reparación, remanufacturación, rehabilitación, reciclado, etc. El mantenimiento de las infraestruturas de transporte menos necesarias será muy precario. Los capítulos principales de inversión serán en eficiencia, en sistemas de captación de energías renovables y en la adaptación y modernización de las redes de transporte colectivo y de mercancías. La capacidad de gasto de los Gobiernos se reducirá mucho, al mismo tiempo que se dispararán las necesidades de inversión en las reconversiones sectoriales y las del gasto social.

Gordon Brown reclama un plan urxente para evitar que o prezo do petróleo rache coa recuperación económica

Parece que a alarma lanzada polo Comisario europeo da Enerxía (e outros axentes políticos e económicos) vai callando nalgún goberno europeo gravemente preocupado pola recuperación da súa economía. E nada menos que o do Reino Unido, que segundo Rob Hopkins, o fundador do movemento das Cidades en Transición Enerxética, aseguraba sen rubor algún que o teito do petróleo non sería algo do que preocuparse ate o 2020: The British Government still takes the position that peak oil is something we need not worry about until at least 2030. …aínda nos lembraba Hopkins o día 23. Se cadra Hopkins aínda non escoitara as noticias cando publicou ese post: Brown demands emergency plan to stop oil wrecking recovery. Aínda que non lle boten a culpa ao teito do petróleo, a preocupación é curiosamente coincidente coa de Andris Piebalgs: Gordon Brown ordenou aos seus ministros do Tesouro e de Economía que deseñen plans para afrontar prezos en alza do petróleo e a seca de crédito para as empresas británicas, no medio de temores de que a recuperación da economía do país descarrile. Brown busca un acordo internacional que coute o aumento do custo do cru, que case chegou a 72$ o barril o pasado venres. Coas economías do Golfo (incluída Arabia Saudita) en risco de caer en recesión no que queda de ano, segundo previsións do Fondo Monetario Interncional, os gobernos occidentais temen que os países da OPEP terán un forte incentivo para restrinxir a produción e elevar aínda máis os prezos. (…) A preocupacion agora en Whitehall é que uns prezos máis altos das materias primas disparen a inflación e tenten o Banco de Inglaterra a apretar a súa política antes de que economía estea de novo en pé. (…) (…) Dixo que unha suba de 25$ nos tres últimos meses era unha preocupación crecente: “Un repunte nos prezos dos recursos básicos podería ralentizar a recuperación. Debemos actuar -conxuntamente con outros países- para reducir a volatilidade dos prezos”, dixo. Apuntando a axenda política do goberno, Darling dixo que Gran Bretaña quere mellorar a transparencia do mercado do petróleo, eliminar as barreiras á subministración de enerxía e mellorar a eficiencia enerxética. O goberno cre que a actual prezo do petróleo non está xustificado pola debilidade da economía mundial e que a acción internacional podería poñelo de novo nun nivel máis axeitado. (Perdoade a imprecisión da apurada tradución.) É curioso que pretendan que por arte de maxia a acción concertada dos gobernos do mundo poida facer que un recurso finito imprescindible para o funcionamento da economía mundial poida manter un prezo baixo nun contexto de demanda crecente (recuperación económica) e oferta minguante (teito do petróleo). Cando abandonarán as súas fantasías anticientíficas e os mitos do crecemento perpetuo? Ou xa as abandonaron pero fan como que non diante do público, con tal de non recoñeceren que co teito de petróleo non vai haber recuperación que valla? Mentres, claro, está a OPEP para lle botar a culpa. E se non, serán os especuladores, ou se cadra pasado mañá… os terroristas ou Irán.

Lugares do mundo que se están a preparar para o teito do petróleo

Esta semana puiden ler un artigo de Rob Hopkins no seu blog Transition Culture no que fai un moi bo repaso aos lugares do mundo que se están a preparar para o impacto do cénit ou teito do petróleo. Estes pioneiros deberían ser un modelo que seguirmos con urxencia nos concellos galegos, pois segundo moitos o teito xa se produciu o ano pasado e estamos comezando unha costa abaixo que vai empeorar, e moito, as consecuencias da recesión económica, de tal maneira que esta derivará ou ben nun progresivo (ou relativamente súpeto) colapso das nosas sociedades, ou ben forzará unha viraxe radical cara unha sustentabilidade real e un decrecemento económico e enerxético. A continuación farei un resumo do que Hopkins nos conta, baseado nun repaso que á súa vez fixo da listaxe que mantén o PostCarbon Institute estadounidense. Lembra que todo comezou co Plan de Acción para o Declive Enerxético (PDF) que el contribuía a crear en Kinsale (Eire) e que foi o comezo de todo o movemento espallándose a outras comunidades que polo mundo xa estaban matinando sobre o mesmo problema. Hopkin clasifica as iniciativas que teñen xordido desde entón, en 4 tipos: Iniciativas lideradas por gobernos municipais. Estudos sobre os impactos máis amplos do teito do petróleo sobre a sociedad. Propostas de resposta ao problema nun contexto nacional. Plans de Decrecemento Enerxético impulsados por movementos sociais 1. Plans de resposta municipal ou rexional Estes están a xordir maiormente nos EUA cun primeiro en Portland (Oregón) en Xullo de 2007 baixo o título de Descending the Oil Peak: navigating the Transition from Oil and Natural Gas ao que seguiu un plan semellante en Oakland (California) (The Oil Independent Oakland Action Plan (PDF)) e en Xuño de 2008 o Vision Plan for the City of San Buenaventura que Hopkins considera o mellor ate o momento, froito do traballo interdisciplinar de diversos profesionais e técnicos aínda que deixa de lado aspectos importantes como a sanidade e mais a educación. Outras cidades onde os gobernos municipais xa comezaron planificar a súa Transición cara un futuro sen petróleo son San Francisco (PDF) e Berkeley (PDF) ademais de Hamilton (PDF) en Canadá. Nun nivel menos desenvolto están varias cidades que polo de agora limitáronse a aprobar resolucións acerca do cénit do petróleo como Nottingham no Reino Unido (No web das Postcarbon Cities hai un amplo listado destas resolucións e un mapa de respostas locais). 2. Estudos sobre os impactos a nivel nacional En 2006 o goberno irlandés encargou un estudo acerca dos periogos do cénit do petróleo para a economía irlandesa (PDF), e en Xullo de 2008 o goberno galés fixo outro tanto (PDF). En Xullo de 2008 a Local Government Association británica emitiu un informe titulado Volatile Times (PDF), que exploraba cales podería ser os impactos do cénit do petróleo e mais da mudanza climática sobre os gobernos locais do país. E mesmo desde o colectivo empresarial británico se estudou o tema (PDF) en outubro do 2008 concluíndo que o teito se produciría probablemente en 2013 con graves consecuencias para a economía e a comunidade empresarial do país. 3. Propostas de accion a nivel nacional En 2007 o Centre for Alternative Technology publicou o informe Zero Carbon Britain, un intento de deseñar unha estratexia nacional para que o Reino Unido sexa neutral en canto a emisións de carbono (no que atinxe á xeración de enerxía) para dentro de 20 anos. Outras publicacións nunha dirección semellante son Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air e Can Britain Feed Itself. Aquí penso que a Hopkins lle esquecen os plans de países como Suecia, estados como Queensland ou as experiencias de Cuba liberándose do petróleo no seu Periodo Especial. 4. Plans para o Declive Enerxético (ou Energy Descent Action Plans, EDAPs) Deseñar un Energy Descent Action Plan é o paso final do proceso de Transición en 12 etapas que emprega o movemento das Transition Towns creado polo propio Hopkins, e varias cidades están traballando nel (o propio Hopkins anuncia o borrador da de Totnes, actual paradigma do movemento para os vindeiros meses). Tras Kinsale veu Sunshine Coast (Australia), Forest Row (Reino Unido), Oxford (só o apartado de transición no transporte), Stroud (só o apartado de alimentación), etc. A este imprescindible traballo de recopilación de modelos, cara os que todos teremos que volver os ollos con máis ou menos urxencia en busca de referentes cando nos deamos convencido de que coas políticas actuais non imos a ningures, e ao que fai o Postcarbon Institute dos EUA, iremos achegando o noso gran de area en forma de breves páxinas que podedes atopar na columna dereita deste blog, baseadas principalmente no libro do profesor Bermejo, Un futuro sin petróleo - Colapsos y transformaciones socioeconómicas.

A dependencia do petróleo do noso modo de alimentarnos

Tamén durante a preparación do artigo sobre as Cidades en Emerxencia Enerxética para a revista Tempos Novos, pedín a opinión de Lidia Senra, secretaria de organización do SLG acerca do tema seguinte: Ata que punto é dependente o noso modelo de alimentación do petróleo, comezando pola produción agrogandeira e rematando pola gran distribución comercial? Os consumidores e os mesmos produtores non son conscientes desa dependencia. Cal pensas que sería o camiño para rachar con ela? Que outro modelo de alimentación sustentable sería posible? Lidia Senra: Na actualidade tanto o modo de producción como a comercialización dos productos agrários son tremendamente dependentes do petróleo. Co modelo de producción imposto polas políticas agrarias que estamos sofrindo na actualidade, no proceso de producción dos alimentos hai unha dependencia, total do gasoleo para mover as maquinarias. Temos tamén dependencia do petroleo nos transportes dos alimentos dos animais, Europa é fortemente dependente e importa grandes cantidades de millo e de soia e outros productos para os pensos, transporte de sementes, fertilizantes, pesticidas, etc. A esto habería que engadir todos os productos que se elaboran con derivados do petroleo como poden ser plásticos, tuberías para regadíos,… A dependencia é tanta que en canto sube o petróleo, practicamente todos os insumos suben, e esto nótase tremendamente nos costes de producción. Se abordamos a comercialización, tamén podemos observar a forte dependencia que temos. A grande distribución move cantidades inxentes de productos alimentarios de punta a punta do planeta. A inmensa maioría dos alimentos que se venden nos supermercados instalados no noso territorio, teñen percorrido moitos miles de quilómetros. Logo están os plásticos cos que se nos obriga a envolver os productos agrarios para a venda. Agora, por decir so un exemplo, no canto de atar con algún producto vexetal os manoxos das verduras, cada vez obrígasenos máis a metelos en plásticos. Eu penso que non somos conscentes para nada desa dependencia, nin das consecuencias que este modelo ten en termos de despilfarro enerxético, nin a incidencia no cambio climático. A cousa chega mesmo a extremos tan absurdos como en ámbitos onde estas cousas deberían estar minimamente claras, como poidera ser a agricultura ecolóxica, onde se nos presentan productos ecolóxicos certificados, como por exemplo mazás que viaxan dende a Arxentina , cereais que veñen de Alemania,… (serán orgánicas, pero ecolóxicas dende o noso ponto de vista non son). O camiño para rachar con todo esto, está na información, no debate social sobre as consecuencias a todos os niveis das políticas agrarias e alimentarias que temos e no compromiso do conxunto da cidadanía para loitar para un cambio profundo das mesmas e tamén no debate para que todas e todos nós teñamos información suficiente para ser máis conscentes de que mercar é un acto político e, que non ten as mesmas implicacións mercar productos alimentarios procedentes da agricultura industrial e da grande distribución, que mercar productos do país nos mercados locais e de proximidade. Nós defendemos un modelo de producción e alimentación baseado no Dereito a Soberanía Alimentaria dos pobos. Precisamos que as políticas agrarias debe abandonen a vocación exportadora e que promovean e prioricen que cada pobo, que as labregas e os labregos de cada país, produzan os alimentos básicos para a súa cidadanía. Que os modos de producción sexan sustantábeis a nivel social e medioambiental e as explotacións o máis autosuficientes posíbeis. Un modo de producción en base á terra, sen utilizar productos que deixen residuos perigosos para a saude e para o medio. Producir prioritariamente para os mercados locais e de proximidade. Fomentar o consumo responsábel e respectuoso co medio e cos recursos. Potenciar o consumo dos productos frescos e de tempada e a granel. Apoiar a creación de iniciativas de transformación e venda dos productos en circuitos curtos. Crear redes de distribución que coloquen os productos das nosas explotacións nos mercados locais (pequeno comercio), promover que as prazas e os mercados volvan ser espazos para que as labregas e os labregos podan vender os seus productos directamente á cidadanía. Non autorizar a instalación de máis grandes superficies e inciar o proceso para ir pechando as xa instaladas

Xornadas Galegas de Economías Alternativas os días 27 e 28 de Xuño en Vigo

Retransmitimos esta interesante convocatoria: Xornadas Galegas de Economías Alternativas: troco e cesión, bancos de tempo, moedas alternativas, ferramentas financeiras éticas Centro Social do Calvario, Vigo (rúa Numancia, 3) 27 e 28 de xuño de 2009 ¿Estamos en crise? O sistema económico neoliberal, baseado no espellismo do crecemento sen freo, na especulación absurda e a depredación do medio afúndese, fagocitándose a si mesmo ¿Estamos en crise? Os bancos e as multinacionais que esquilman a terra coa súa delirante obsesión polos beneficios ven como se acenden todas as alarmas. ¿Estamos en crise? Os gobernos, cómplices durante décadas do desenvolvismo salvaxe, bótanse as mans á cabeza e declaran que chegou o momento de que a bolsa salvadora do Estado pague as facturas dos especuladores. Son eles os que están en crise, pero nós os que a sufrimos. E pretenden que, unha vez máis, as cidadáns lles saquemos as castañas do lume. É tempo de mudanzas. Cando o Estado se afunde, cobran forza unha vez máis os sistemas económicos éticos: propostas claras, viables e sensatas, respectuosas coa contorna, que non confunden benestar con incremento da produción e que apostan pola reciclaxe, a utilización consciente dous recursos, a solidariedade e o ben común. As asociacións e colectivos integrantes da rede de troco e cesión Vigotroca, Amarante, Árbore, Caleidoskopio, Verdegaia e Centro Social do Calvario, invitámosvos a participar, os próximos 27 e 28 de xuño, en Vigo, nun encontro galego de economías alternativas: bancos de tempo, troco, cesión… O obxectivo destas xornadas é propiciar un contacto entre os grupos e organizacións galegas que traballan para impulsar una economía ética. O encontro iniciarase a mañá do sábado 27 coa celebración do mercadiño mensual de troco e cesión de Vigotroca, na rúa Urzáiz de Vigo, e seguirá, tras un xantar conxunto, coa presentación dos colectivos participantes e a exposición das actividades que estades a desenvolver. Troco, cesión, bancos de tempo, moedas alternativas, instrumentos financeiros éticos… A economía real, a economía decente. E, o domingo, realizaremos un roteiro guiado polo espazo natural das Gándaras de Budiño e Ribeiras do Louro, en Porriño. Porque a economía é tamén, ecoloxía. Programa do sábado 27 de xuño 11:00-13:00 Mercadiño de troco e cesión na rúa Urzáiz, fronte ó mercado do Calvario. 14:00 Xantar conxunto das persoas asistentes ás xornadas. 16:00 Asemblea de organizacións de troco, cesión, bancos de tempo e economías alternativas. Presentación, posta en común de experiencias, propostas de futuro. 19:00 Presentación de ferramentas financeiras éticas (Coop-57, Fiare, etc.); redes de Troco (Ourense, Ferrol, etc); e moedas alternativas 21:00 Cea conxunta na Cova dos ratos, A.C. Caleidoskopio: actuacións e lecer. Programa do domingo 28 de xuño 10:00 Partida cara as Ribeiras do Louro, no Porriño. 11:00 Roteiro guiado polo espazo natural. 14:30 Xantar conxunto das persoas asistentes na Cova dos ratos, A.C. Caleidoskopio. Recórdao: os días 27 e 28 de xuño, implícate connosco en Vigo. Por ti. Por todas. Asinado: Amarante, Árbore, Caleidoskopio, Verdegaia e Centro Social do Calvario  http://vigotroca.arkipelagos.net

ASPO International

Up to 50,000 jobs could be at risk in the UK oil & gas sector

The cross-party committee, set up earlier this year to scrutinise the work of the new Department of Energy & Climate Change, has been hearing evidence on the country's energy sector over recent months. "The oil and gas industry operating on the UK continental shelf currently faces a quadruple whammy of high costs, low prices, lack of affordable credit and a global recession," said the report by the Energy & Climate Change Select Committee published today. Up to 50,000 jobs could be at risk in the UK oil & gas sector next year if ministers do not set out a more "articulate" strategy on how to maintain production levels, Read more: UK Parliament or Upstream Online

SHELL: Be prepared for next oil price spike

Royal Dutch Shell Plc's chief executive, Jeroen Van Der Veer warned that the next spike in oil prices is already in the making as demand will continue to grow and the current oil and gas industry cannot supply all the additional needs. Jeroen spoke at the 14th Annual Asia Oil & Gas Conference on 7-9 June in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. There are going to be six to nine billion people by the year 2050 and it means more "energy use", especially this part of the world, which means the world needs renewable energy and it takes four to five years to construct a refinery. "So, we think it is a good philosophy to be a high investor (now) and benefit from the lower construction prices," he said. "By the year 2050, 30 per cent energy demand will be renewable but a bulk or 70 per cent will still be fossil fuel" "Therefore in the long term the energy will not be cheap," said Jeroen, who is retiring on July 1 after being with the company for 38 years. Read more: The Malaysian Insider

Deloitte: "Time to get used to $80 oil"

The world may have to get used to an average oil price settling closer to the $80 mark, once prices settle after the past year's wild fluctuations, UK-based consulting company Deloitte said today. Just as oil at last year's peak of $147 looked excessive, so oil at last year's low of $34 looked unlikely to last, Deloitte chief economist Ian Stewart said in an internal company briefing. "Yet the factors which drove up the oil price last year are still in place. Supply is constrained by underinvestment and a shortage of skilled workers." Despite much higher oil prices the International Energy Agency reckons investment in the oil sector will fall by 15% to 20% this year... Read more: Upstream Online

CERA: "Peak Oil is Here"

CERA Global Oil Group Managing Director Jim Burkhard spoke at a CSIS session on "Transforming the Transportation Sector: Energy Security, Climate Change and Transportation". During his presentation, Mr. Burkhard explained that in acknowledging that peak oil is here, CERA's interpretation is that US gasoline demand peaked in 2008 and is expected to decline in future years. He also stated that CERA maintains its position that the reasons for US liquid fuel demand having peaked are economic and geopolitical in their nature, rather than in any way driven by geologic factors. He repeatedly came back to the notion that "peak oil is here". It commonly claimed, often used in a somewhat derogatory way, peak oil is only about geology. We rather state that peak oil is the result of a complex series of forces which include economics and the physics of oil wells. Bardi has earlier discussed the four stages of an idea and how it diffuses into public knowledge. read more

SHELL: Huge sums needed to keep energy flowing

The head of Shell, Jeroen Van De Veer, highlighted the mounting challenges facing the oil and gas industry with particular emphasis on the sheer sums of money needed to be invested to keep energy flowing. He said energy demand will double between now and 2030 and that the classical oil and gas industry cannot meet this rising demand. De Veer believes that the industry needs renewables and unconventional fuels added to the energy mix to meet rising demand. "The energy mix in the world is not the role of companies, I think it is a role for governments as they have the tools to set the energy mix," said De Veer. Read more: Upstream Online

Oil Depletion Protocol

ASPO's Stuart McCarthy on the ODP in QLD

Stuart McCarthy of ASPO Brisbane discusses the recent response to a petition for the state of Queensland to adopt the Oil Depletion Protocol and other Australian peak oil news. Read more.

The Oil Depletion Protocol in Earth Island Journal

Richard Heinberg discusses the Oil Depletion Protocol in the Winter 2007 edition of Earth Island Journal. Click here to read more.

Bush urged to break US oil dependence

By Carola Hoyos in London, Edward Luce in Washington and Krishna Guha in Beijing Published: December 13 2006 22:07 | Last updated: December 13 2006 22:07 The Bush administration should act decisively to break America's dependence on oil, said a group of leading US business executives and senior military officers in a report presented on Wednesday to the White House and Congress. The bipartisan group, which includes the chief executives of Fedex, UPS, Dow Chemicals and some of America's best known retired generals, urged Washington to recognise that "pure market economics will never solve the problem" of US oil dependency. The report poured cold water on the Bush administration's goal of reducing America's dependence on foreign oil, rather than on oil in general. It urged Mr Bush and the new Democrat-controlled Congress to set up a plan to halve the American economy's oil-intensity by 2030. George W. Bush has repeatedly identified "energy independence" and immigration reform as two of the issues most likely to attract bipartisan support following the Republican loss of control of Capitol Hill in mid-term elections last month. "Events affecting supply or demand anywhere will affect consumers everywhere," said the report, brought out by the Energy Security Leadership Council, a think tank. "Exposure to price shocks is a function of how much oil a nation consumes and is not significantly affected by the ratio of "domestic oil" to so-called "foreign oil". The report also warned Mr Bush, who is expected to announce new energy independence measures in his annual State of the Union address to Congress next month, that America's oil dependence makes it acutely vulnerable to terrorist attacks. America's transport system is 97 per cent dependent on oil. More than 90 per cent of world oil supply is controlled by foreign governments. "America must address this critical weakness." Said P.X. Kelley, a retired Marine Corps general. "An oil supply interruption cannot be reasonably dismissed as improbable." However, there is deep-seated scepticism about the willingness of the Bush administration, which has yet to endorse the theory of global warming, to take the tough steps most energy experts say are necessary to reduce America's dependence on oil. Last January Mr Bush declared that America was "addicted to oil". But Mr Bush's announcement was not followed by any significant change in energy strategy. "There is very little reason to believe that the White House will take the tough measures necessary to make this happen," said a Washington-based energy lobbyist. "There is no appetite, say, to impose a carbon tax or for putting a floor under the price of oil that would incentivise investors to put their money into alternative energy." However, the US administration wants to step up co-operation with China on energy efficiency and the use of alternative fuels. Energy and the environment will be among the topics addressed in Friday's final session of the US-China strategic economic dialogue involving top officials meeting in Beijing. The dialogue is the brainchild of Hank Paulson, US Treasury Secretary, who has a strong track record as an environmentalist and is treated with suspicion by some US conservatives as a result. Lack of binding targets for China and other big emerging market countries such as India to limit their greenhouse gas emissions was one of America's principal reasons for refusing to ratify the Kyoto accord. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006 See article here.

EU report calls for energy efficiency to be a priority

The Industry and Energy Committee says there should be binding targets for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and on increasing the use of renewable energy sources. These views are set out in a wide ranging report on the Commission's energy strategy proposals, adopted unopposed on Thursday. In its report, drawn up by Eluned Morgan (PES, UK), the committee welcomes the Commission's green paper on a European strategy for sustainable, competitive and secure energy, but stresses that changing conditions in the broader global energy market need to be taken into account. MEPs in the committee want a systematic approach considering production, distribution and consumption in order to develop a policy which secures affordable energy. A binding CO2 target for 2020 and changes in Emissions Trading Scheme  To tackle climate change, MEPs say EU leaders should agree within the next year on a binding CO2 target for 2020 and an indicative one for 2050. They say the existing Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) needs to be changed, to include a move towards auctioning or benchmarking based on output - and also to bring in further emitting sectors including all types of freight transport.  Energy Efficiency to be a priority across the board The report asks the Council and Commission to make the EU the most energy efficient economy in the world by 2020 and to set energy efficiency measures as cross-cutting priority for all EU policy areas. It supports an EU target for energy efficiency improvements of at least 20 per cent by 2020.  MEPs call for an EU strategy on transport energy use, aiming at the phasing out of fossil fuel, a reduction in oil dependency and the gradual introduction of  clean energy. Targets for renewables supported - nuclear power is up to Member States In order to help diversify energy sources, the committee says the EU needs a stable long-term policy framework, with  binding sectoral targets for renewables to reach 25 per cent in primary energy by 2020 - and a route map to reach 50 per cent by 2040.  The committee recognises the role that nuclear energy plays in some Member States as part of the energy mix and as a way of avoiding CO2 emissions, but says decisions on the future of nuclear power must be taken by the Member States individually. Consumers at the centre of energy policies MEPs in the committee stress that consumers must be placed at the centre of all future energy policies and that energy poverty should feature more clearly in the Commission's proposals. Consumers should have easy access to price and choice information, to an easy method of switching energy provider and a right to be heard by the regulators in each Member State. EU should speak with one voice with third countries The committee says a common stance vis-à-vis third countries is needed to increase the EU's ability to negotiate with energy producing and consuming countries. The Commissioner responsible for energy should, say MEPs, work to a well defined mandate with a long-term energy planning vision. MEPs urge the Commission and the Member States to take very seriously the real danger of a deficit in gas supplies from Russia after 2010.  They insist on the ratification of the Transit Protocol and the Energy Charter Treaty, which are instrumental in ensuring much needed foreign investment in Russia's energy infrastructure and to assure sufficient gas supply to the EU. 23/11/2006Committee on Industry, Research and EnergyChair : Giles Chichester (EPP-ED, UK) Procedure: Own Initiative ReportPlenary vote: December, Strasbourg Original story here.   

Queensland, Australia petition to adopt the ODP

If you are a resident of Queensland, Australia, click here to read about and sign the petition to Parliament!

The Oil Drum

Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living - Richard Duncan

This is a guest posting of Richard Duncan's latest "Olduvai" update, which is also featured in the Summer 2009 issue of The Social Contract Quarterly www.thesocialcontract.com. The essay explores energy use and population and as with previous updates arrives at some rather grim conclusions. On a side note, the paper Richard Duncan wrote with Walter Youngquist in 1999 (when oil prices were in $10-$15 range and stock markets were at all time highs) predicting a 2007 world oil peak was not only prescient and ahead of its time using oil forecasting heuristics, but was part of the core readings from 2003 that caused me to leave the Wall St path to study resource depletion full time. (I encourage those who have not done so to read it: Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production). Figure 5. Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standards of Living Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living By Richard Duncan "Standard of Living" is often (not always) measured by money spent per head. Economists acknowledge that this is a poor measure of welfare -- especially during these times of economic turmoil when fiat money becomes unable to purchase basic necessities (e.g., Zimbabwe, recent food riots). Since the consumption of energy is the prerequisite for all economic activity, "energy consumption" instead of "money consumption," is a more accurate long term metric for measuring welfare. Abstract This study is based on: (1) historic population and energy data from 1965 to 2008 and (2) backup studies by several scientists. The Olduvai Theory is explained by disaggregating the World into the U.S., the OECD nations, and the non-OECD nations standards of living (SL). The U.S. SL peaked in 1973 (Figure 1). The World SL rapidly increased from 2000 to 2007 (Figure 2). This increase was caused by just a few non-OECD nations (Figure 3). The OECD SL peaked in 2005 (Figure 4). The Olduvai Theory shows each SL curve trending toward the same average SL value that the World had in 1930 (Figure 5). Introduction The Olduvai Theory (OT) is defined by the rise and fall of the World standard of living (SL). The main population data are from OECD (2008) and the main energy data are from BP (2008). The OT is quantified by dividing World population (P) into World energy consumption (E): SL = E/P. 1 Suddenly however, in June 2008 I was pressed to explain the rapid rise in the World SL from 2000 to 2007. The cause turned out to be the rapid rise of the SL in just a few of the 165 non-OECD ('underdeveloped') nations: namely China, India and Brazil. In contrast the SL of the 30 OECD ('developed') nations peaked in 2005 and has since declined. Population and energy data from 1965 to 2007, OECD data for 2008 and early 2009, and OECD projections to 2010 are the basis for a scenario toward re-equalizing the World SL from 2008 to 2030. Backup studies are referenced, quoted and discussed: M. King Hubbert presented an Olduvai-like hypothesis to the AAAS Centennial Conference in 1948 and published it in Science in 1949. Jay W. Forrester in 1971/1973 used feedback modeling to show the likelihood of overshoot and collapse of the World 'STEP' system. Walter Youngquist (advance copy ms. GeoDestinies, 2009) describes the grave problems resulting from U.S. and World population growth coupled to the depletion of Earth resources. Three Geo/STEP Scientists This section highlights how a Geophysicist, a Systems Scientist and a Petroleum Geologist viewed/view the past and project the future of Industrial Civilization. M. King Hubbert (1903-1989) Geophysicist and Professor Emeritus, Columbia University -- gave an invited presentation to the Centennial Conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in 1948 titled "Energy from Fossil Fuels." In it he sketched and discussed an Olduvai-like scenario. His presentation was published in Science, 1949. Human Affairs in Time Perspective The present state of human affairs can best be appreciated in the light of a time perspective, minus and plus, of some tens of thousands of years from the present, as depicted in Fig. 8 [frame #1]. On such a time scale the phenomena we have discussed are represented by abrupt, nearly vertical rises from zero or near zero to maximum values. The consumption of energy from fossil fuels is thus seen to be but a "pip," rising sharply from zero to a maximum, and almost as sharply declining, and thus representing but a moment in the total human history. Likewise the consumption of energy per capita [Fig. 8, frame #3}, after having risen very gradually from 2,000 to possibly 10,000 kilogram calories per day, is seen to increase suddenly to a maximum value of several times the highest previous value. Again it is physically possible to maintain a high value, as indicated by Curve I, on a stable basis for an indefinite period of time from current energy sources, particularly direct and indirect solar radiation. It is also possible, however, that through cultural degeneration this curve may decline, as in Curve II, to the subsistence level of our agrarian ancestors. 2 Viewed on such a time scale [Fig. 8, frame #4], the curve of human population would be flat and only slightly above zero for all preceding human history, and then it too would be seen to rise abruptly and almost vertically to a maximum value of several billion. Thereafter, depending largely upon what energy supplies are available, it might stabilize at a maximum value, as in Curve I, or more probably to a lower and more nearly optimum value, as in Curve II. However, should cultural degeneration occur so that the available energy resources should not be utilized, the human population would undoubtedly be reduced to a number appropriate to an agrarian existence, as in Curve III. These sharp breaks in all the foregoing curves can be ascribed quite definitely, directly or indirectly, to the tapping of the large supplies of energy stored up in the fossil fuels. The release of this energy is a unidirectional and irreversible process. It can only happen once, and the historical events associated with this release are necessarily without precedent, and are intrinsically incapable of repetition. It is clear, therefore, that our present position on the nearly vertical front slopes of these curves is a precarious one, and that the events which we are witnessing and experiencing, far from being "normal," are among the most abnormal and anomalous in the history of the World. Yet we cannot turn back; neither can we consolidate our gains and remain where we are. In fact, we have no choice but to proceed into a future, which we may be assured will differ markedly from anything we have experienced thus far. M. King Hubbert, Science, 1949, p. 103-109 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jay W. Forrester Electrical Engineer, Computer Scientist and Professor Emeritus, Sloan School of Management, MIT -- has a remarkable record of innovations and applications in both hardware and software. This essay focuses on his groundbreaking book, World Dynamics (1971/1973) wherein he uses feedback control theory to model the World STEP system. The World Situation Many global attitudes and programs seem to be based on accepting future growth in population as preordained and as the basis for action. But, if we make provision for rising population, population responds by rising. What is to stop the exponential growth? This book describes the circular processes of our social systems in which there is no uni-directional cause and effect. Instead, a ring of actions and consequences close back on themselves. One can say, incompletely, that population will grow and that cities, space, and food must be provided. But one can likewise say, also incompletely, that the provision of cities, space, and food will cause population to grow. Population generates the pressures to support growth of population. But supporting the growth leads to more population. Growth will stop only in the face of enough pressure to suppress the internal dynamic forces of expansion. Many programs--for example the development of more productive grains and agricultural methods--are spoken of as "buying time" until population control becomes effective. But the process of buying time reduces the pressures that force population control. Any proposed program for the future must deal with both the quality of life and the factors affecting population. "Raising the quality of life," means releasing stress, reducing crowding, reducing pollution, alleviating hunger, and treating ill health. But these pressures are exactly the sources of concern and actions that will control total population to keep it within the bounds of the fixed world within we live. If the pressures are relaxed, so is the concern about how we impinge on the environment. Population will then rise further until the pressures reappear with an intensity that can no longer be relieved. Trying to raise quality of life without intentionally creating compensating pressure to prevent a rise in population density will be self-defeating. Efforts to improve quality of life will fail until effective means have been implemented for limiting both population and industrialization. Without effective legal and psychological control, population grows until stresses rise far enough, which is to say that the quality of life falls far enough, to stop further increase. Everything we do to reduce those pressures cause the population to rise farther and faster and hastens the day when expediencies will no longer suffice. People are in the position of a wild animal running from its pursuers. We still have some space, natural resources, and agricultural land left. We can avoid the question of rising population as long as we can flee into this bountiful reservoir that nature provided. But the reservoir is limited. Exponential growth cannot continue. The wild animal flees until he is cornered, until he has no more space. Then he turns to fight, but he no longer has room to maneuver. He is less able to forestall disaster than if he had fought in the open while there was still room to yield and to dodge. The world is running away from its long-term threats by trying to relieve social pressures as they arise. But, if we persist in treating only the symptoms and not the causes, the result will be to increase the magnitude of the ultimate threat and reduce our capability to respond when we no longer have more space and resources to invade. What does this mean? Instead of automatically attempting to cope with population growth, national and international efforts to relieve the pressures of excess growth must be reexamined. Many such humanitarian impulses seem to be making matters worse in the long run. Rising pressures are necessary to hasten the day when population is stabilized. Pressures can be increased by reducing food production, reducing health services, and reducing industrialization. Such reductions seem to have only slight effect on quality of life in the long run. The principal effect will be in squeezing down and stopping the runaway growth. … The long-term future of the earth must be faced soon as a guide for present action. Goals of nations and societies must be altered to become compatible with that future, otherwise man remains out of balance with his environment. Man can do vast damage first, but eventually he will yield to the mounting forces of the environment. Can the traditions of civilization be altered to become compatible with global equilibrium? Jay W. Forrester, World Dynamics, 1973, p. 123-125 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Walter Youngquist Geologist, draws from his experience in living and working abroad, and travels in some 70 countries to observe the vital relationship of population to available Earth resources. He is particularly concerned about continuing population growth against declining both nonrenewable and renewable resource bases--fertile soil and fresh water being examples of the latter. Selections from the Introduction, ms. advance copy We are relative latecomers on the scene, and the Earth existed for several billion years very well without us. But with our arrival and our development of culture to the technological age in which we now live, in a very brief time we have had an impact on the Earth beyond what any other organism has ever had. We therefore live in a unique, and what is likely to be a very brief time in human history. Some of us have been very fortunate to live in these times near or at the top of the pyramid of technological and medical advances. But we are at the same time living at a great turning point in Earth and human history. It is apparent that current political, economic, and social efforts are to keep things as they are--not to change. People in developed countries do not like changes in their lifestyles … if they believe they are good now. But changes come and are unavoidable. … As much as the future changed during less than in my lifetime, the future of most of those reading this book will surely be equally or more changed from what is the present. Successfully adjusting to a different future from what has been enjoyed by at least some the past few hundred years is the challenge lying now directly ahead. … In earlier centuries, with many fewer people, these Earth resources were exploited only very slowly and in minor amounts. But within the past few hundred years, with the arrival of the Industrial Revolution … the rate and volume of resource exploitation has greatly increased, … It was the use of these resources that has been the base for the rise of our present civilization, allowing some segments of society to achieve, … a standard of living never before imagined. Accompanying this rise in standard of living has been a huge increase in population, from an estimated 610 million in 1700 to the current approximately 6.7 billion. This has been a truly astounding event made possible chiefly by three factors: great medical advances including sanitation, the widespread use of high energy density fossil fuels, and the use of these fossil fuels to greatly enhance agricultural production … [It] is the huge rise in population and related increased Earth resource consumption … that is probably the salient fact of these truly remarkable recent few centuries. … But these materials … can be extracted and used only once. … Can we continue to maintain the present high standard of living for some of us, by using truly renewable Earth resources … instead of an inheritance from the past? … Much of the discussion in the following chapters is related to stress on Earth mineral and energy resources, and stress on the environment from population growth. Equally and perhaps more important … are social stresses resulting in part from depletion of resources, such as water supplies and fertile soils … and resulting food shortages causing riots. Also population is growing … faster than are jobs. … Until recently, the outlet for stress from a growing population was migration … but this outlet no longer exists. … Even the United States, the United Kingdom, and European countries may show stress in several ways including generally rising unemployment, and antagonism toward immigrant labor … One fact is abundantly clear: we have already exceeded the permanent carrying capacity of the Earth, and the number one problem is to reduce population in an orderly fashion to fit into the new renewable resources paradigm. … [Nearly] all governmental leaders worldwide are committed to keeping and expanding the present agendas of resource consumption … with the rallying cry of "sustainable economic growth." The underlying basic problem of population growth is rarely addressed--absent from most political agendas as being "politically incorrect." … [Growth] based upon continuing to exploit the finite resources of the Earth is not possible. Yet this is the current basis of the world's developing and developed economies. … We need to be as self-sufficient, dependent on resources from local economies … for this has to be a part of any sustainable future. … History is informative and gives us a perspective on how we came to where we are today. But it is the future in which you will live and the future is "not what it used to be." But it is now arriving … bringing with it more than 190,000 people each day to live on depleting resources. … It is the purpose of this volume to provide a perspective on the past, but more importantly provide a possible and hopefully a fairly realistic view of what the future may hold. … [Namely] that on this finite Earth high consuming societies are eventually going to be relegated to being an artifact of history. … Our modern, developed societies tend to be removed, by their present degree of affluence, from the environment as the basis for our existence. Food comes from the supermarket, clean water comes from the faucet. But the closer people live to the margin of existence, the more they realize the vital importance of fertile soil, and safe drinking water, … How we try to navigate the choppy waters to the future, will determine to a large extent when and in what condition we will arrive to the new land of sustainable renewable Earth resources. … The continued almost inevitable growth of population … against the depletion of Earth resources combine to form the main challenge before us. … Those who will be living at the end of this century will see much of this land of the future come into view, but even there and then as now, Earth resources will continue to be the base for human existence and will inevitably exert final control over the destinies of nations and individuals. We are made of Earth materials, and its biological products, and on these we survive. To continue to negatively impact our environment is a form of suicide. "Mother Earth" is not an abstract concept but very much a reality, for from Earth we came, on it we depend for our existence. … Walter Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- The American Example Obvious Responses Will Not Suffice The dynamic characteristics of complex social systems frequently mislead people. … [Urban policies for example] are being followed on the presumption that they will alleviate the difficulties. … In fact, a downward spiral develops in which the presumed solution makes the difficulty worse and thereby causes redoubling of the presumed solution so that matters become still worse. The same downward spiral frequently develops in national government and at the level of world affairs. Judgment and debate lead to programs that appear to be sound. Commitment increases to the apparent solutions. If the presumed solutions actually make matters worse, the process by which this happens is not evident. So, when the troubles increase, the efforts are intensified that are actually worsening the problems. Jay W. Forrester, 1973, p. 93-94 Figure 1 shows the U.S. standard of living (SL) during 37 years. Figure 1 shows the U.S. standard of living (SL) during 37 years. Evidence in Figure 1 shows that the U.S. SL grew dramatically from 1965 to its all-time peak in 1973. Then, after an erratic 21 years, it went into an accelerated decline from 2000 to 2007. Moreover, recent data show that the decline accelerated in 2008 and into 2009. Details follow. Growth--Peak--Decline: From 1965 to 1973 the U.S. SL surged reaching its all time peak in 1973. This was followed by a dip-and-rebound from 1973 to 1979. Then from 1979 to 1983 came a precipitous plunge wherein the U.S. SL fell by 14.5% (8.92 boe/c) in 4 years. A rough recovery came from 1983 to a high in 2000. Then from 2000 to 2007 the U.S. SL declined by 4.1% (2.46 boe/c) in 7 years. Historical correlations: The U.S. SL grew swiftly during low energy prices from 1965 to 1973. Then in 1973-74 -- correlated with an Arab-Israeli war -- several OPEC nations banded together and refused to export oil to the U.S. Next in 1979 came the fall of the Shaw of Iran -- reputedly a 'puppet' of the U.S. -- accompanied by a steep rise in the price of oil and a plunge in the U.S. SL from 1979 to 1983. This was followed by an erratic struggle wherein the U.S. SL reached a brief high in 2000. Then, beginning with the Dot.com bust, came the ominous decline from 2000 to 2007. U.S. population vs. energy: The U.S. population grew from 211,909,000 in 1973 to 301,104,000 in 2007 -- an increase of 42.1% or 89,231,000 people in 34 years. At the same time U.S. energy consumption lagged at 31.6%. The net result was that the U.S. SL fell by 7.4% from 1973 to 2007. 3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- The United States annually takes in more immigrants than do all other nations combined. Somalians now live in Minnesota. Sudanese live in Kentucky. Medicaid is received by 14.8 percent of households headed by Americans, and 24.2 percent by households headed by immigrants. Many compassionate Americans feel that it is our duty to take in more and more immigrants. However, at the current rate of approximately 2.5 million a year, this accounts for only 3 percent of the 80 million people added to world population annually. The United States cannot continue to act as a safety valve for even a small portion of world population growth. Very near the U. S., Haiti has 9 million people living in an area smaller than Malheur County Oregon. Haiti is on international food welfare. We ship food to Haiti, which simply results in more Haitians to whom to ship food next year. More than 27 countries now exhibit this same circumstance. Population is a homegrown problem, and it must be recognized and solved at home, without exporting it. "There is nothing more dangerous than a shallow-thinking compassionate person." -- Garrett Hardin. Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 20 The Olduvai Theory: Background The fifth revolution will come when we have spent the stores of coal and oil that have been accumulating in the earth during hundreds of millions of years … it is obvious that there will be a very great difference in ways of life … a man has to alter his way of life considerably, when, after living for years on his capital, he suddenly finds he has to earn any money he wants to spend … This change may justly be called a revolution, but it differs from all the preceding ones in that there is no likelihood of its leading to increases of population, but even perhaps to the reverse. Charles Galton Darwin, 1953, p. 52 The similarities and differences in the shape of the Olduvai/World curve in Figure 2 are compared to the shape of the U.S. curve (Figure 1, previous) as an aid to understanding both. Figure 2. Olduvai/World Average Standard of Living Note well Figure 2 vis-à-vis Figure 1: (1) Both the World SL and the U.S. SL grew strongly from 1965 to 1973: 27.8% for the World SL and 28.2% for the U.S. SL. (2) Compare the ups and downs in each curve from 1979 to 2000 wherein there was a net decline in each curve: 1.9% decline in Figure 2 and 2.8% decline in Figure 1. (3) In contrast -- the two curves differ markedly from 2000 to 2007: the World SL increased by a strong 9.7% while the U.S. SL decreased by 4.1%. The strong correlation between the Olduvai/World SL and the U.S. SL from 1965 to 2000 is evidence that the same events must have influenced both curves during these 35 years. So we ask, "What likely caused the noted difference between the two curves from 2000 to 2007?" This question is discussed and answered in the next two sections. 4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- There is coming this century, in places, already here, an inevitable collision between resources available on a finite Earth and rising population demands from both growth and hopes for a more affluent existence. Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 33 In 1972 the presidential appointed Rockefeller Commission was to examine the future well being of the United States. At that time the U. S. population was approximately 207 million, and the Commission reported they could see no advantage in having more people. But in 2009 the U. S. had 307 million and still growing. Albert Bartlett has stated: "Can you think of any problem, on any scale from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way, aided, assisted, or advanced by having larger populations at the local level, the state level, the national level, or globally?" Looking inevitably toward a renewable resource-based future, present population has already exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth, but by 2050 another 2.5 billion are projected to be here. The worldwide number one problem is population, for, as is the motto of one environmental group "Whatever your cause is, it is lost without population control." Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 20 OECD SL and Non-OECD SL OECD Composite Leading Indicators reach new low The OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for January 2009 continue to point to a weakening outlook for all the major seven economies, with the OECD total falling again to a new low and little clear indication of stabilizing soon. The outlook has also continued to deteriorate in the major non-OECD member economies … The CLI for the OECD area in January … was 9.1 points lower than in January 2008. The CLI for the United States in January … was 10.8 points lower than a year ago. … The CLI for China in January 2009 … was 14.8 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for India in January … was 9.6 points lower than in January 2008. The CLI for Russia … was 19.4 points lower than a year ago. In January 2009 the CLI for Brazil … was 10.1 points lower than a year ago. OECD (2009b) By most accounts there are 195 nations (countries) in the World. The OECD comprises the 30 'developed' nations and the non-OECD comprises the 165 'underdeveloped' nations. For example, the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and Japan are OECD nations. In contrast China, India, Russia, Brazil and Ethiopia are non-OECD nations. The Olduvai/World curve comprises both the OECD nations and the non-OECD nations. Figure 3 depicts the Olduvai/World data disaggregated into one curve for the OECD nations a second curve for the non-OECD nations. Figure 3. OECD SL and non-OECD SL Compared The OECD document (2009b, above) and Figure 3, taken together; reveal several significant facts to explain the recent upshot of the Olduvai/World curve (Figure 2, previous): (1) The OECD SL curve from 2000 to 2007 decreased by 0.8% (0.27 boe/c). (2) The non-OECD SL curve increased by 28.1% (1.62 boe/c). Thus the rapid rise in the Olduvai/World curve from 2000 to 2007 was entirely caused by growth in the non-OECD SL and none of it caused by the OECD SL. (3) The OECD SL reached an all-time maximum in 2005. (4) Then from 2005 to 2007 it decreased by 0.8% (0.30 boe/c). (5) Further, the entire OECD SL fell by 9.1 CLI points during 2008. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- "Growth" -- A reaffirmed global objective [In] response to the global economic meltdown, the G-20 was formed consisting of the leaders of the 20 biggest, richest, and emerging economies. A summary statement of their objectives was released and printed in full in … November 16, 2008. One of the clearly stated objectives was to "restore global growth," to enhance "economic growth," and foster "sustainable growth." In total, the term "growth" in various contexts appears nine times. An additional objective is "to stimulate domestic demand …" In all uses of the term "growth" the G-20 group meant it ultimately in terms of material things. It is clear the fact that "sustainable growth" is an oxymoron … Continued growth in use of both nonrenewable and renewable natural resources is the problem, not the solution. …" We are already exploiting the Earth's vital resources at an unsustainable rate. Demand is exceeding resource supplies to the extent that even now more than half the world is in poverty. Standard of living … is most easily measured by per capita consumption of energy. In the United States this peak was in 1973, and now going down quite rapidly. Whatever gains may have been accomplished by the laudable efforts of efficiency and conservation … have been more than cancelled by increase in population, suggested also by the fact that the U. S. is the only industrialized nation with a significant growth in population, now about three million per year. … Nationally, 80% is due to immigration, in California, nearly 100%, where by 2030 20 million more people are expected to arrive adding to the 38 million there now. Youngquist, advance ms. copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 33 Focus on OECD Standard of Living GDP to plummet 4.3 percent across OECD countries in 2009 as unemployment climbs sharply Economic activity is expected to plummet by an average 4.3 percent in the OECD area in 2009 while by the end of 2010 unemployment rates in many countries will reach double figures … Amid the deepest and most widespread recession for more than 50 years, international trade is forecast to fall by more than 13 percent in 2009 and world economic activity to shrink by 2.7 percent. … In the United States, activity will fall sharply in the near term, but the country could begin to pull out of the recession in early 2010, assuming the effectiveness of the strong stimulus packages and more stable financial and housing markets. … In the large emerging economies activity is slowing as access to international credit dries up, commodity prices fall and export demand weakens. … The Interim Outlook adds that the risks of an even gloomier scenario outweigh the possibility of a quicker recovery. … OECD (2009a) Figure 4. The OECD SL: Peak Revealed Figure 4 focuses on OECD data from 1992 to 2007. Four key facts emerge: (1) The OECD SL grew by a remarkable 8.6% (2.77 boe/c) from 1992 to its all time maximum in 2005. (2) Then it declined by 0.8% (0.30 boe/c) from 2005 to 2007. (3) Economic activity in the OECD area is expected to plummet by an average 4.3 percent in 2009. (4) The U.S. is the largest economy in the OECD, passed its peak SL in 1973 and its SL has since declined. These facts mean that the OECD maximum in 2005 will, I assume, be the all-time OECD SL peak. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Increasingly, from across the globe, nightly television brings to our living rooms photos of malnourished people, particularly touching are the starving children. Advanced countries can provide the means and the knowledge for a given country to adjust its population to its sustainable food resource base, but implementation of that action becomes an individual responsibility, and collectively a national responsibility. Thus far this most fundamental of all humanity's problems is consistently ignored by all--or nearly all--public officials everywhere. It has never, to my knowledge, become part of any political platform or a politician's agenda seeking office or one seeking to remain in office. All of the above also relates to the United States. The number one, most important factor in all of this is current size of population and above all, continued population growth. But this overriding consideration is never recognized. The word "population" does not appear anywhere in the G-20 statement. If this document represents the forward "thinking" of the world leaders of the biggest and richest economies, we are in very deep trouble." Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 20 Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living The real issues, I believe, rest on the impossibility of a long-term favorable future for the human species if different parts of the Earth remain in grossly different stages of development. On a long-term basis it simply is not possible to contemplate a life of prosperity and luxury in a few favorable cases on the Earth existing permanently alongside poverty and starvation everywhere else. Sooner or later, standards of living work themselves to a pretty constant level, like water finding its own level. Sir Fred Hoyle, 1964, p. 54-55 Figure 5 depicts four curves, one for each SL category we've discussed. Figure 5. Toward Re-Equalizing the World SL The vertical scale of Figure 5 goes from 0.0 boe/c to 64.0 boe/c to accommodate all of the SL curves previously shown. Historic data appear from 1990 to 2007 and -- along with other data and many references -- provide the basis for the Olduvai scenario shown from 2008 to 2030. 5 In Figure 5 the U.S. curve (#4) in 2007 represents 4.5% (0.301 billion) of World population and had a SL of 57.5 boe/c. In contrast, the non-OECD curve (#1) in 2007 represents 82.3% of World population and had a SL of 7.4 boe/c. This difference cannot last for long. The following scenario projects how "Mother Nature" will resolve this problem. 6 The Olduvai Scenario: The U.S. SL plunges (curve 4); the OECD SL dives (curve 2); the non-OECD SL levels off and then sinks (curve 1); the Olduvai SL (curve #2) peaks in 2010 7 and then declines to a scant 3.53 boe/c in 2030. That SL for the World in 2030 will equal the same SL the World had in 1930 -- thus giving Industrial Civilization a "pip" of 100 years. In other words: The falling World SL will eventually limit both World population growth and industrialization. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Population now has grown beyond the former abundance of relatively inexpensive basic resources. As costs of the necessities of life rise, strains are appearing across the world. Even in what has been called "the richest nation" the United States the fabric of everyday life is coming under stress. With the addition each year of three million people, the stress can only increase. One can begin to feel a growing uneasiness about the future, both here and abroad. There is good cause for unease, with world population increasing at the rate of more than 80 million a year continuing the assault on the life-sustaining environment. Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 20 The irreconcilable current trends of a growing population and declining supporting resources seem not yet to be recognized at any levels of political leadership. However, these two facts will collide head-on this century. At best, this will result in a halt to population growth. At worst it could be chaos. The ability of the Industrial Revolution and related technologies to find and exploit the Earth's resources at an unsustainable rate for a fortunate relatively few societies, by its very success carries within it the seeds of its own destruction. We inevitably face a future of less. However, bringing this message to the developed and developing world's citizens is not being done. Discussion of this topic and population growth unfortunately remains politically incorrect. Economists and political leaders nearly everywhere continue to endorse the illusion that more people consuming more resources ("buy more"--"increase demand") is the road to permanent prosperity, whereas now the exact opposite is true. Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 20 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The average U.S. standard of living (SL, Fig. 1) peaked in 1973; from 1973 to 2007 it decreased by 7.4%; the U.S. composite leading indicator (CLI) in January 2009 was 10.8 points lower than in January 2008. Conclusion 1: The U.S. SL will continue falling long into the future. The Olduvai/World SL (Fig. 2) reached a temporary high in 1979; from 1979 to 2000 it decreased by 1.9%; however from 2000 to 2007 it increased by 9.7%; the increase was entirely caused by increases in a few non-OECD nations. Conclusion 2: The World SL itself will soon begin to decline. The OECD SL (Figs. 3 & 4) reached its peak in 2005; from 2005 to 2007 it decreased by 0.8%; its "CLI was 9.1 points lower in January 2009 than in January 2008; economic activity is expected to plummet by an average 4.3 percent in the OECD area in 2009 and by the end of 2010 unemployment rates in many OECD countries will reach double figures." Conclusion 3: The OECD SL will continue to fall. The non-OECD SL (Fig. 3) increased by 28.0% from 2000 to 2007 and this caused the rapid rise in the Olduvai/World SL during those years (Fig. 2). However, "In the large emerging economies activity is slowing as access to international credit dries up, commodity prices fall and export demand weakens." Further: The CLIs for China, India and Brazil all fell sharply in 2008. Conclusion 4: The non-OECD SL has already begun to fall. The Olduvai Scenario (Fig. 5): The U.S. SL falls by 90% from 2008 to 2030. The OECD SL falls by 86%. The non-OECD falls by 60%. The OECD SL melds with the non-OECD SL in 2030 putting the World SL at 3.53 boe/c in 2030. Conclusion 5: The World SL reaches the same value in 2030 that it had in 1930, giving Industrial Civilization a duration of 100 years. Projections regarding the United States: (1) We will refuse to solve our own problems so Mother Nature will "solve" them for us. (2) Sooner or later industrial decline will cause population decline and, tit-for-tat feedback, population decline will cause industrial decline. (3) The U.S. population distribution in 2100 will look more like the rural geography of 1900 than like the urban geography of today. (4) Trying to stimulate -- or even maintain -- the present level of domestic demand of nonrenewable and renewable Earth resources will fail. (5) Multiculturalism will cause chaos during the transition to localism. Acknowledgments Dr. Walter Youngquist and Dr. Colin J. Campbell have shared their keen insights over many years. John Gibbons, publisher of http://www.thinkorswim.ie/ motivated this study just as the world economy imploded. Dr. Euan Mearns has demonstrated an astute and useful way to analyze oil forecasts. Definitions 1. G means billion. 2. boe refers to the average energy content of a barrel of oil. 3. E means energy consumption in G boe. 4. P means population in G. 5. Standard of Living (SL) is the ratio of E and P: SL = E/P. 6. Geo/STEP refers to complex Geo/social-technical-economic-political systems. 7. Scenario means, "An outline for any proposed or planned series of events, real or imagined." End Notes 1. This is Ackerman's Law, discussed in Duncan, 2005-2006, p. 2-3. 2. M. King Hubbert in 1949 projected that the duration of Industrial Civilization would be more than 1,000 years, some ten times that of the Olduvai Theory. 3. "Re-equalization of living standards: It will be a long slow process but I think the trend will be there this century. You might note also that immigration tends to do the same thing -- people migrate out of resource scarce poor countries to countries with more resources -- the migrants use more resources and this cuts down total available for all. The USA is a good example. People use energy -- more people use more energy, and if there is not enough to go around at low cost, everybody sees a cut in living standards. So migration is a factor in equalization of living standards." (Walter Youngquist, letter, 8/28/08) 4. The noted Olduvai cartoon (Duncan 1996) can be viewed at here 5. "The expanding economy of the First Half of the Age of Oil led to increasing globalization based on growing world trade and financial hegemony by powerful countries. But the Second Half will likely see reversion to localism as different communities come to terms with the changed circumstances and find new sustainable patterns of life to match the resources available to them." (Colin J. Campbell, 2009, p. 4) 6. "Forcible imposition of population control would be seen by most people as a sufficiently unfavorable change in the social environment that they might prefer that the forces take the tangible forms of lowered material standard of living and reduced food supply." (Jay W. Forrester, 1973, p. 122) 7. Latest data at this writing suggest that the OT Peak actually occurred in 2008, but it was then too late to change Figure 5 and the associated text.   SOURCES Ackerman, F. L. (1932). The technologist looks at social phenomena. In Introduction to Technocracy by Howard Scott (1933). John Day Co., NY. BP (2008). British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy www.bp.com. Campbell, C. J. (2009). ASPO Newsletter No. 100. April: www.aspo-ireland.org/contentFiles/newsletterPDFs/newsletter100_200904.pdf. Darwin, C. G. (1953). The Next Million Years. Doubleday. Garden City, NY. Duncan, R. C. (2005-2006). The Olduvai Theory: Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization. Winter. www.thesocialcontract.com. Duncan, R. C. (1996). The Olduvai cartoon is shown at: www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/olduvai.htm. Forrester, J. W. (1971/1973). World Dynamics. Wright-Allen Press. Cambridge, MA. http://sysdyn.clexchange.org/people/jay-forrester.html. Hoyle, F. (1964). Of Men and Galaxies. University of Washington. Seattle. Hubbert, M. K. (1949). Energy from Fossil Fuels. Science, v. 109, p. 103-109. www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_from_Fossil_Fuels (historical). OECD (2009a). GDP to plummet 4.3 percent across OECD countries in 2009 as unemployment climbs sharply. 31 March. www.oecd.org. OECD (2009b), OECD Composite Leading Indicators reach new low. 6 March. www.oecd.org. OECD (2008). Factbook: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics. Total Population Table (.xls). www.oecd.org. Youngquist, W. (2009). GeoDestinies, 2nd Edition, Forthcoming: National Book Company, Portland, OR.

DrumBeat: July 3, 2009

Eager to Tap Iraq's Vast Oil Reserves, Industry Execs Suggested Invasion Two years before the invasion of Iraq, oil executives and foreign policy advisers told the Bush administration that the United States would remain "a prisoner of its energy dilemma" as long as Saddam Hussein was in power. That April 2001 report, "Strategic Policy Challenges for the 21st Century," was prepared by the James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy and the US Council on Foreign Relations at the request of then-Vice President Dick Cheney. In retrospect, it appears that the report helped focus administration thinking on why it made geopolitical sense to oust Hussein, whose country sat on the world's second largest oil reserves. "Iraq remains a destabilizing influence to the flow of oil to international markets from the Middle East," the report said. Crude Oil Falls to $66 in New York, 10% Below This Year's High (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures in New York fell below $66 a barrel, a 10 percent decline from this year's high, marking a market "correction." Crude oil is set for a third weekly drop after U.S. unemployment rose to the highest in almost 26 years, signaling the world's largest energy user remains mired in recession. Prices may drop again next week on speculation that U.S. fuel inventories will climb as the weak economy curbs demand, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. "It has been a double whammy for crude oil," said Chris Jarvis, president of Caprock Risk Management LLC in Hampton Falls, New Hampshire. "You've got a stronger dollar and weaker- than-expected economic data, so that was a huge catalyst to start selling crude." Russia's call to raise cost of gas falls on deaf ears Moscow has asked Seoul to readjust the price of the liquid natural gas that Russia began exporting to Korea this year after Russian government officials complained that the price agreed upon in 2004 is too low. But Seoul officials have refused to renegotiate the deal, which was sealed five years ago. According to officials of Korea's Knowledge Economy Ministry and Korea Gas Corp., Russia recently made an official request to raise the price of the liquid natural gas from the Sakhalin gas reserve during the latest session of the Korea-Russia Joint Commission on Economic, Scientific and Technological Cooperation. The meeting was held in Seoul on July 1. Kashagan development costs slashed The cost of developing Kazakhstan's huge Kashagan oilfield will be cut by at least $1 billion as the global crisis drives down machinery prices, Kazakh Energy Minister Sauat Mynbayev said today. The oilfield, in the north-east of the Caspian Sea, is due to come onstream in 2012. Kazakhstan's government had earlier estimated its total cost at $136 billion. Russia Gazprom plans $2 bln Eurobond in two tranches MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's gas export monopoly, Gazprom, plans to issue a Eurobond in two tranches denominated in dollars and euros and worth up to $2 billion in total, banking sources told Reuters on Friday. The monopoly plans to channel part of the proceeds to its oil arm, Gazprom Neft, to help it finance a buying spree. Turkey gives green light to EU gas pipeline deal EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS -- Turkey will host the signing of an inter-governmental agreement on the EU-backed Nabucco gas pipeline on 13 July, in a major breakthrough for the long-delayed project aimed at reducing Europe's gas reliance on Russia. Book Review: Blackout Coal. Under the surface we seem to have a lot of it. It's fairly inexpensive but this is changing as demand rises to meet increased energy needs especially in countries like China. So we have a lot, its cheap, let's use it, what's the problem? Right? Wrong! Author Richard Heinberg writes in Blackout: Coal, Climate and the Last Energy Crisis, "In short: two of the defining trends of the emerging century--the development of the Asian economies and climate change--both center on coal. But coal is finite non-renewable resource. Thus, a discussion of the future of coal must also intersect with a third great trend of the new century: resource depletion." Iranian cleric: British Embassy staff to be tried A top Iranian cleric said Friday that some of the detained Iranian staffers of the British Embassy in Tehran will be put on trial, and he accused Britain of a role in instigating widespread protests that erupted over the country's disputed presidential election. What's the tipping point for revolution? Skepparkroken, Sweden -- How can it be that 70,000 protesters in Leipzig in 1989 tore down the Berlin Wall, while up to a million protesters in Tehran in 2009 managed only -- so far -- to trigger repression? Or, to phrase it differently, what's the tipping point for revolution? Just when does civil society trump entrenched political power? KFC's proposal: First pot pies, now potholes Everybody needs a little KFC. But maybe not Chicago. The fast-food chain has sent off a letter to the nation's mayors, offering to patch their potholes for free. The company will leave behind a stenciled brand on the patch informing people the road has been "Re-Freshed by KFC." Oil's record high, one year later: Crude is less than half its $145 peak of last July 3 - as a global economic slowdown zaps demand NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- One year ago, on July 3, 2008, oil prices settled at a record high -- a once-unthinkable $145.29 a barrel On Thursday, it settled at $66.73, less than half the record price, following a $2.58 decline. In between, a global demand surge morphed into a global economic slowdown -- one that would drive the price of oil as low as $33.87 in December -- followed by the partial recovery that has been underway since. A year ago, oil was driven higher by two factors. One was the emergence of new global economic powers such as China, India and Russia, competing with the United States and the West for the world's oil. The other was a weak dollar, the currency of crude trading. Oil May Fall on U.S. Fuel Inventories Increase, Survey Shows (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall on speculation that U.S. fuel inventories will climb as the recession curbs demand in the world's biggest energy-consuming country. Eighteen of 37 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 49 percent, said futures will decline through July 10. Nine respondents, or 24 percent, said the market will be little changed and 10, or 27 percent, forecast that oil prices will rise. Last week, 55 percent of analysts said prices would drop. OPEC and IEA Agree Not to Disagree: A Good Omen for the Industry For a change now, the OPEC viewpoint seems to be gaining ground, getting the due attention it deserves. This was not based on rhetoric or partisan energy politics, it was based on facts, simple and pure facts, one could say now without the fear of being ridiculed. The world of energy today increasingly appreciates that wide scale speculation in oil markets carries tremendous risks. When Asian energy ministers met in Japan earlier this year, the issue of speculation was underlined, with everyone -- producers as well as the consumers -- emphasizing it could cause havoc to the global energy markets. Interestingly now even the IEA, the OECD energy watchdog and the EU are also emphasizing that oil markets risk another speculative bubble unless the financial sector is reformed, reined in and transparency is enhanced. Canadian Superior granted bankruptcy protection Canadian Superior Energy Inc. said its application seeking court protection from creditors was successful, staying all claims against the oil and gas producer and its assets. The court order, effective until March 25, allows the company to prepare a plan to payoff creditors, including the proposed sale of a stake of 25% or more in a promising gas discovery in Trinidad and Tobago. Pumped storage hydro plants enjoy dual boost Scottish and Southern announces plan for first new UK pumped storage plants in more than 30 years, as US government releases fresh hydro funding. Interest in bees and chickens soars ahead of last Royal Show In the past year, the smallholder retailer Countrywide has seen a 40 per cent increase in net sales across all poultry products in the past year. Simon McEwan, editor of Country Smallholding magazine, said: "Many suppliers report that business has been very brisk over the past year. From humble beginnings in the 1970s, the grow-your-own revolution is gathering pace. "Concerns about food security, climate change, food miles and the energy crisis are also considerations. No doubt the credit crunch is having an effect too." Organic Farms as Subdivision Amenities SOUTH BURLINGTON, Vt. -- The bewildered Iowan who converted his farm into a ballpark in "Field of Dreams" in 1989 might reverse the move today. From Vermont to central California, developers are creating subdivisions around organic farms to attract buyers. If you plant it, these developers believe, they will buy. Increasingly, subdivisions, usually master-planned developments at which buyers buy home sites or raw land, have been treating farms as an amenity. "There are currently at least 200 projects that include agriculture as a key community component," said Ed McMahon, a senior fellow with the Urban Land Institute. A Farmer in Suburbia, Not So Far Afield Set among the rolling green hills of Loudoun County, Jim Dunlap's farm hasn't changed much since the 1780s. The original fieldstone farmhouse, designed by William Penn, is still there, albeit larger after two additions. So is the stone smokehouse and a spring house. There are peach trees, raspberry bushes and vegetables. If Isaac James, a former owner and the great-grandfather of outlaw Jesse, were to visit, he would see just one real difference: SnowBear Farm is now the only farm in sight. The property is surrounded by huge suburban mansions with wide, empty lawns. Of course, these days it's more surprising to find a working farm than McMansions in Loudoun. But Dunlap, a retired CIA operations officer, wanted to farm here. His little piece of suburbia is perfectly situated for a small farmer just starting out: The land is fertile, and the location, just 55 miles from Washington, puts him within striking distance of lucrative urban farmers markets, where prices and demand are high for produce grown without pesticides or chemical fertilizers. "We need to take a lot of this land that's used for pet horses and giant lawns and find ways to grow food on it again," Dunlap said. "My work is an experiment to figure out how we can do it." Bike shop puts neighborhood teens to work Humboldt Park-area kids coming into program learned bike repair and became owners of the bikes they worked on. Gregorio Lozada was one of them and is now a bike mechanic employed here. "My mind is set to put things together, take 'em apart, so I can sit here and take this bike apart and I can put it back together. It's easy for me," said Lozada. Green Power Takes Root in the Chinese Desert DUNHUANG, China -- As the United States takes its first steps toward mandating that power companies generate more electricity from renewable sources, China already has a similar requirement and is investing billions to remake itself into a green energy superpower. Through a combination of carrots and sticks, Beijing is starting to change how this country generates energy. Although coal remains the biggest energy source and is almost certain to stay that way, the rise of renewable energy, especially wind power, is helping to slow China's steep growth in emissions of global warming gases. While the House of Representatives approved a requirement last week that American utilities generate more of their power from renewable sources of energy, and the Senate will consider similar proposals over the summer, China imposed such a requirement almost two years ago. Oil hovers above $66 in Asia after weak jobs data SINGAPORE -- Oil prices hovered above $66 a barrel Friday in Asia in light holiday trading a day after grim unemployment numbers from the U.S. and Europe sent crude prices tumbling. Oil brokerage PVM names rogue trader LONDON (Reuters) - PVM Oil Futures Limited said on Friday that Steve Perkins, a senior broker based at the firm's London office, was responsible for unauthorized trades earlier this week which landed the firm with a loss of nearly $10 million. The London-based brokerage said Perkins had taken the unauthorized positions in Brent crude futures early on Tuesday morning. The heavy buying of Brent futures in Asian trade on Tuesday caused global crude prices to spike to their highest level this year, in a move traders and analysts had previously struggled to explain. OPEC Says 'Satisfied' With Current Crude Oil Price (Bloomberg) -- OPEC is "satisfied" with the current oil price, OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said today in Beijing. The current price is "good for all of us, the consumers and the producers," de Vasconcelos said. The world economy has recovered and "this price is a balanced price for us," he told reporters at the Global Think Tank Summit. Saudi Arabia May Cut Heavy-Oil Price as Processing Profits Drop (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia may lower the official price of its heavy oil grade sold to Asia from a six-year high as processing profit for fuel used by ships and power plants declined in the previous month, refinery officials said. Qatar to Roll Back Crude Oil Supply Cut in August, Refiners Say (Bloomberg) -- Qatar Petroleum will supply full contracted volumes of crude oil to term customers in Asia in August, rolling back a 15 percent cut imposed in July on one of its grades, refinery officials said. The state-owned company last month pledged full volumes of its Qatar Land grade for July, but cut Qatar Marine shipments by 15%, traders at two refiners who hold one-year contracts said today. They asked to remain unidentified because of confidentiality agreements with the supplier. Europe urged to stockpile gas European countries were urged to start stockpiling gas reserves for the winter as another gas crisis involving Russia and Ukraine is looming. The European Commission said a repeat of January's energy shortfall was likely if Ukraine failed to raise €4.2m needed to pay for Russian gas supplies required to fill its storage facilities. Venezuela, China May Sign New Loan-for-Oil Accord, Chavez Says (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela and China Development Bank Corp. are discussing a third $4 billion infrastructure loan to be paid in oil, President Hugo Chavez said. "This bank is the one with the most money in the world," Chavez said late yesterday on state television. "It has half the money in the world and is allied with Venezuela." PetroChina boosts output at Sulige gasfield BEIJING (Reuters) - Top oil and gas firm PetroChina raised daily output at its largest Sulige gasfield, in northern China's Ordos Basin, to 25.6 million cubic metres, up 67 percent from last July, its parent CNPC said. The Reasons Behind Big Oil Declining Iraq's Riches Any notion that the invasion of Iraq was simply an oil grab took another hit on Tuesday when Baghdad opened the bidding on the rights to develop its massive energy reserves. In a day-long auction of eight huge oil fields -- some of the world's biggest -- virtually all the 41 foreign companies invited to bid by the Iraqi government balked at the Baghdad terms. The only contract signed was a 20-year deal for a consortium led by BP and China's National Petroleum Corporation to develop the giant Rumaila field in southern Iraq. "Frankly I did not think it would be such a fiasco and embarrassment for the government," says Rochdi Younsi, Director of Middle East and Africa for the Eurasia Group in Washington. "It shows the level of disconnect between the Ministry of Oil and the oil companies." Iraq over optimistic on oil, output to fall - IEA LONDON (Reuters) - Iraqi plans to raise oil output to 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2017 are likely to be over optimistic, the International Energy Agency said on Monday, saying oil capacity could fall over the next two years. The IEA said in its Medium-Term Oil Market Report it had taken a very conservative view of Iraqi production capacity for 2008/14 despite tremendous international interest in the country's oil development projects. It forecast Iraqi oil production capacity would fall to as low as 2.23 million bpd in 2010/11 before gradually rising to 2.7 million bpd by 2014. The country's oil production is now between 2.3 million and 2.4 million bpd, industry sources say. China's CNPC, Cnooc Group Said to Seek Stake in Repsol's YPF (Bloomberg) -- Repsol YPF SA is in talks with China National Petroleum Corp. and China National Offshore Oil Corp. about a sale of a stake in its Argentinean unit, three people familiar with the discussions said. Nigeria, Algeria, Niger Sign Accord on Gas Pipeline (Bloomberg) -- Nigeria, Algeria and Niger signed an agreement on a proposed Trans-Saharan pipeline that will ship natural gas from Nigeria to Europe. The accord was signed by Nigerian Petroleum Minister Rilwanu Lukman, Niger's Energy Minister Mohammed Abdullahi and his Algerian counterpart Chakib Khelil in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, today. EnCana hit by fifth explosion An explosion that damaged a natural-gas pipeline in northeast British Columbia this week is likely linked to earlier attacks on energy facilities in the area, the RCMP said yesterday. US envoy returns to post in Venezuela CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- A U.S. envoy who was expelled last year by President Hugo Chavez said Thursday he hopes to re-establish dialogue after resuming his post in Venezuela. Ally's Ouster Gives Venezuela's Chávez a Stage, an Opportunity CARACAS, Venezuela -- An ally was in trouble, toppled in a military coup. And the television cameras were rolling. The ouster of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya could not have been better scripted for another Latin American leader who has taken center stage: Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. The populist firebrand has been Zelaya's most forceful advocate and could win international accolades if the Honduran eventually succeeds in regaining power. $49M power line project will support crude oil pipeline A new $49 million electric transmission line is being planned to support the TransCanada Keystone crude oil pipeline project that will run through central Nebraska. A month with no driving explores a car-crazy culture Beginning Tuesday follow along with News reporter Fred Davies as he tosses his car keys and embarks on a month of no driving. A multi-part feature will examine the state of transportation in Oceanside, as he delves into a car crazy (some might say addicted) culture and discovers what all that driving means for livability in the region. The state of public transit, how municipalities fare in addressing accessibility, health impacts, potential fixes, their cost and who might pay for it, will all be grist for the mill. Japan may add noise to quiet hybrid cars for safety TOKYO (AFP) -- Japan's near-silent hybrid cars have been called dangerous by the vision-impaired and some users, prompting a government review on whether to add a noise-making device, according to an official. Spain backtracks on nuclear power phase-out MADRID (AFP) -- Spain's government said Thursday it would allow the country's oldest nuclear reactor to operate beyond its intended 40-year lifespan, reversing a policy of gradually phasing out nuclear power. Through a combination of carrots and sticks, Beijing is starting to change how this country generates energy. Although coal remains the biggest energy source and is almost certain to stay that way, the rise of renewable energy, especially wind power, is helping to slow China's steep growth in emissions of global warming gases. EPA extends comment period on biofuel standard WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday said it was extending the comment period on a draft rule that aims to cut greenhouse gases emitted by biofuels. The proposed changes to the 2007 U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard attempt to make production of corn-based ethanol more efficient and increase output of advanced biofuels. Another endangered elephant dies in Indonesia: WWF Five of the eight elephants have died near or inside the concession area. Three were killed for their tusks and four were poisoned after eating palm oil plants doused in toxic chemicals. "Some people are trying to protect their palm oil crops in the area by pouring insecticides on the plants. Maybe it's not intentional but it has killed a few elephants," Syamsidar said. Conflicts between wild animals and humans are on the rise on Sumatra, where legal and illegal logging is rapidly reducing the tropical jungle. EPA allows TVA to dump spilled coal ash in Ala. BIRMINGHAM, Ala. -- The nation's largest utility can dump millions of tons of coal ash from a Tennessee spill into an Alabama landfill, federal regulators said Thursday, despite criticism that the plan is unfair to one of Alabama's poorest counties. Exxon, Valero Face New Curbs on Cancer-Causing Gases (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama is considering new curbs on U.S. oil refineries whose gas emissions pose a cancer risk to hundreds of thousands of people living near the plants, setting up a potential conflict with companies over the cost of new regulations. The White House suspended a ruling signed by President George W. Bush four days before he left office that found refiners were adequately controlling benzene and other cancer- causing gases, said Cathy Milbourn, a spokeswoman at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Federal 'organic' label's integrity under fire: Consumers who pay up to twice as much don't always get what they expect WASHINGTON - Three years ago, U.S. Department of Agriculture employees determined that synthetic additives in organic baby formula violated federal standards and should be banned from a product carrying the federal organic label. Today the same additives, purported to boost brainpower and vision, can be found in 90 percent of organic baby formula. The government's turnaround, from prohibition to permission, came after a USDA program manager was lobbied by the formula makers and overruled her staff. That decision and others by a handful of USDA employees, along with an advisory board's approval of a growing list of non-organic ingredients, have helped numerous companies win a coveted green-and-white "USDA Organic" seal on an array of products. Incredible shrinking sheep blamed on climate change Sheep living on a remote island off the coast of Scotland have been shrinking for 20 years. Now it seems shorter winters caused by climate change are responsible. Los Angeles will end use of coal-fired power LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Los Angeles will eliminate the use of electricity made from coal by 2020, replacing it with power from cleaner renewable energy sources, Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said. Consumers of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, the largest city-owned utility in the United States with 1.45 million electricity customers, will see higher power bills in the fight against climate change, he added in his inaugural speech for his second four-year term as mayor on Wednesday. Indian FM urges 'ambitious but fair' climate targets TOKYO (AFP) -- India's foreign minister on Friday called for an ambitious but fair greenhouse gas reduction target under a new climate treaty, saying any pact should not hinder the economic growth of developing countries. Study: Tropical rain band is shifting north - Warming suspected; freshwater shortages for some Pacific isles likely Earth's most prominent rain band, near the equator, has been moving north at an average rate of almost a mile a year for three centuries, likely because of a warming world, scientists say. The band supplies fresh water to almost a billion people and affects climate elsewhere. If the migration continues, some Pacific islands near the equator that today enjoy abundant rainfall may be starved of freshwater by midcentury or sooner, researchers report in the July issue of the journal Nature Geoscience.

Risk Assessments: Playing the "What If?" Game

I spend a lot of time playing "What if?" It is an important aspect of my line of work, but we all do this to some extent. I do it when I am driving - "What if that car at the next intersection pulls out in front of me?" - when I am working "What if that high pressure line ruptures?" - and at home - "What if I wake up and find the house is on fire?" I also spend a lot of time pondering the question "What if there are energy shortages in the near future?" When we do this, we are generally trying to understand the potential consequences of various responses to a given situation. This sort of exercise is a form of risk assessment, and it is a very important tool for making decisions about events that could impact the future. Sometimes the consequences are minor. If I choose not to take an umbrella to work and it rains, there is probably a small consequence. If I choose to pass a car on a blind hill, the consequence may be severe, and may extend to other people. In this essay I will explore the implications of the question: "What if I am wrong on peak oil or global warming?" What If I'm Wrong About Peak Oil? I guess it was my training as a scientist that instilled in me the position that conclusions are tentative. (I was two years into a Ph.D. in chemistry before I decided the job prospects were better for a chemical engineer). They are subject to revision as additional data come in, and you have to always be willing to consider that your preconceptions may be wrong. But acknowledging that I could be wrong has to go hand-in-hand with the consequences of being wrong. I have formulated a lot of "what if" questions around timing and consequences of peak oil. My view on peak oil is that it presents an enormous challenge for humanity, that global oil production will peak within 10 years (if it hasn't peaked already), and that there is no easy solution. I see spiking oil prices and the subsequent fallout as a prelude to what lies ahead. These views have influenced my profession, where I have chosen to live, what I read, and what I say to others. Fear of peak oil has influenced some people not to attend college, or to quit their jobs and move away to remote locations. It has even caused some people to decide against having children. But what if I am wrong about the timing/consequences of peak oil? How would that impact me? For me, this one has low consequences. If I am wrong and we have adequate oil supplies for the next 40 years, then perhaps I live a more frugal life than I might have otherwise. I prefer to walk, ride a bike, or take a train instead of hopping into a car to drive some place. When I drive, I probably drive a smaller car than I would have otherwise. I grow some of my own food. Then again, I have always been frugal, so perhaps I would have done all of these things regardless. The one thing that it may have impacted upon in a major way is my interest in energy. But if I am right, then I have plans in place to manage the impact as well as I can. Those plans start with minimizing my energy consumption. It is my small insurance policy. If the worst case turns out to be right, then there isn't a lot I can do except try to make sure my family and I are in circumstances that minimize the risk. Further, I have done a lot of work that is aimed at improving our energy security in the years ahead. That work includes promoting renewable energy technologies that I think can make a long-term contribution, but also arguing for conservation, and better utilization of our own natural resources. So if I am correct, then I have chosen to work on things that have the potential to mitigate the consequences. But what if the other side is wrong? Government agencies devoted to monitoring our natural resources often reassure us that there is plenty of oil for decades to come. But what if the government, industry, etc. turn out to have missed the mark on peak oil? In that case I think we will be in for a lot of trouble. If the peak comes quickly and the decline is steep, I believe we will be wholly unprepared. There is not a cheap, easy substitute for oil. Much higher prices will be inevitable in such a situation. Industries - such as the airline industry - won't be prepared and we will see perhaps entire sectors go bankrupt. While I do believe that over time we can transition to natural gas vehicles (and I don't think the situation with natural gas is as dire), that will take some time. If the government is wrong and the peak happens much sooner than expected, we will be in for a very difficult transition period. In other words, their consequences of being wrong are much worse than my consequences of being wrong. If they are wrong, people may starve during a difficult post-peak transition. If I am wrong, we move to a healthier, more sustainable lifestyle. What If I am Wrong on Global Warming? Another question I think a lot about is "What If I am Wrong on Global Warming?" I come down on the side that human activity is contributing to global warming, yet the scientist in me reminds me that "conclusions are tentative." But each camp has elements that feel -- all too often with religious fervor - that the other side's position will lead to either environmental or economic devastation. So we get a lot of vitriol in this discussion, which I don't like. If the Al Gore contingent is correct, then we are facing some very major problems. As I have written before, I don't expect us to be able to rein in carbon dioxide emissions, so I see a future with ever higher atmospheric CO2, and potential environmental devastation if Al Gore is correct. On the other hand are those who believe that human activities play little or no role in global warming. They view the opposition as putting global economies at risk by putting a price on carbon emissions. While I think environmental devastation is a much worse consequence than economic stagnation, the impact of that could be pretty severe as well. What I would prefer to see -- instead of two opposing camps dug into bunkers and tossing verbal grenades at each other -- are more open minds on both sides. I would like to see the sides posing the question "What if I am wrong?" Another good question to ask in these sorts of debates is "Is there any evidence that would convince me that I am wrong?" I don't know what scientists will say when they look back at this issue a hundred years from now, but I don't want to see the debate squelched by those who shouted the loudest. In conclusion, I never discount the possibility that I could be wrong about any number of things. I would say that precious few of my views are embedded in granite. That's why I write; to discuss, debate, learn, and change my mind when reason dictates that. But before you decide to respond to this essay with a strongly worded opinion, ask yourself the question "What if I am wrong?"

DrumBeat: July 2, 2009

Hurricanes May Increase in Gulf as El Nino Shifts in Pacific (Bloomberg) -- A shift of warming patterns in the Pacific Ocean may mean more seasons of increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic and more storms entering the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico, according to a study in the journal Science. The warming of Pacific waters -- a phenomenon called El Nino -- has been moving toward the central Pacific, meaning more storms will form in the Gulf and Caribbean, researchers at Georgia Institute of Technology said in the study. Traditionally, when the eastern Pacific warms up, hurricane activity in the Atlantic falls. Number of active oil rigs up by 11 HOUSTON (AP) -- The number of rigs actively exploring for oil and natural gas in the United States rose by 11 this week to 928, the third consecutive week for an uptick after months of declines. Of the rigs running nationwide, 688 were exploring for natural gas and 229 for oil, Houston-based Baker Hughes Inc. reported Thursday. Eleven were listed as miscellaneous. The report was released a day early because of the July Fourth holiday. 4th pipeline bombing in northeastern B.C. A fourth explosion has occurred at an EnCana Corporation natural gas facility in northeastern B.C, just east of Dawson Creek. RCMP said EnCana gas line workers discovered a partially destroyed metering shed on Sunday at a wellhead near the community of Tomslake. Investigators said the damage was the result of what appeared to be a deliberate attack similar to three other blasts that occurred at Encana operations in October. Mexico's Credit Rating Will Be Cut in Third Quarter, Loser Says (Bloomberg) -- Mexico's credit rating will be cut in the third quarter as the government struggles to muster congressional support for legislation that would ease the nation's dependence on oil revenue, said Claudio Loser, a former International Monetary Fund Western Hemisphere director, ANALYSIS - In China, India, higher fuel prices not yet high enough NEW DELHI/BEIJING (Reuters) - At some point, the theory goes, Chinese and Indian consumers will begin to feel the pain of rising fuel costs, adjusting their habits to use less gasoline, just as motorists from Japan to America have done. But even after a pair of surprise prices hikes this week, taking Chinese pump rates to their highest ever and elevating the cost of gasoline well above relatively cheap American petrol, officials and analysts are agreed: we're not there yet. The economic expansion of the world's two most populous nations underpins the base case for medium-term oil bulls who believe $70 a barrel is only the beginning, but the question of demand "elasticity" -- whether fuel use contracts in the face of higher prices -- could call those forecasts into question. Russia's new oil export route forces hard choices MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia is not producing enough oil to fill a new $4 billion pipeline to the Baltic, which is meant to cut reliance on export routes via neighbouring states, without making hard choices about flows through other outlets. Diverting exports from other routes would risk losing market share to rival OPEC producers or harming ties with key energy partner Germany. Gazprom's Recent Deals Should Be a Red Flag to the Rest of Europe Presumably the wily Azeri president Ilham Aliyev is well aware of Gazprom's practices, and is watching Gazprom's heavy-handedness with Turkmenistan carefully. So why would he deal with this devil? Perhaps this is wishful thinking on my part, but what would make sense is that Aliyev is losing patience with European dithering over Nabucco. By showing a willingness to deal with Gazprom, he is sending a shot across the bow of the EUnuchs, letting them know with actions rather than words that they need to move sooner rather than later or Nabucco is going to turn into a, well, pipe dream. Will the Europeans get it through their thick skulls? I highly doubt it. They are so divided--with Russia and Gazprom merrily promoting and exploiting those divisions--that they will be mightily pressed to get their act together soon. If they don't, Azerbaijan may figure that it has no real alternative but Gazprom. And what a pity that would be. Phil Flynn: Life Liberty and Oil! How can you have prices rise when demand is so bad? There were no fireworks on the demand side as the EIA reported that total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 18.4 million barrels per day, down by 5.8 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.2 million barrels per day, up by 0.9 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged about 3.4 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 9.4 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 13.2 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year. It is the less than spectacular supply and demand numbers, especially compared to a year ago, that leads market critics to say the market is out of whack with the fundamental realities. How Institutions Manipulate the Price of Oil A recent article shows the chart to the left which demonstrates the correlation between crude oil prices and the size of the passive long-only institutional investor. Obama energy policy to cost taxpayers President Obama has targeted oil, natural gas and coal - all carbon fuels - for higher taxation, an energy expert told a Tulsa luncheon on the eve of the "cap and trade" vote last week in the U.S. House. Bob Tippee, editor of the Oil & Gas Journal, told a meeting of the Energy Advocates that Obama wants to adopt the "California view." Obama's policy would cost the oil and gas industry at least $50 billion a year. Mexican Oil Revenues Fall 10% Despite Hedging Mexico's oil-export tax revenues totaled 363.58 billion pesos ($27.34 billion) between January and May, 10.3 percent less than in the same period of last year, officials said. That drop occurred even though the Mexican government -- acting last summer when oil prices were widely predicted to fall from a record high of $140 a barrel -- hedged the price of crude exports at $70 a barrel for all of 2009. Energy Minister urges talks over North Sea tax breaks New Energy Minister Lord Hunt called last night for more dialogue between the offshore oil and gas industry and the Treasury over the tax breaks needed to maximise the extraction of North Sea resources. Addressing a Subsea UK reception in the Commons, he gave a muted response to the highly-critical report issued by the Commons energy and climate change committee, which warned that without more help to encourage development and exploration, the industry could go into decline and put 50,000 jobs at risk. Is Madison making the right choices on transit? Madisonians, like most Americans, are in denial about the impact of peak oil and global warming. It will not be possible to continue our car-oriented lifestyles and sprawling development mentality and still meet urgent carbon-reduction goals. Authorities should make transit decisions with an eye on a very different future, not the antiquated status quo of the past 50 years. Money train: The cost of high-speed rail The president is pledging $13 billion for a high speed rail system, but some experts fear it will never cover its own costs. House Probes Resignation at Amtrak WASHINGTON -- A House committee is investigating the recent resignation of Amtrak's inspector general, citing concerns about oversight at the publicly funded corporation at a time when it is set to spend more than $1 billion in federal stimulus funds. Is Bicycling Bad for Your Bones? In his study, the bone density of 32 male, competitive bike riders, most in their late 20s and early 30s, was compared to that of age-matched controls, men who were active but not competitive athletes. Bone scans showed that almost all of the cyclists had significantly less bone density in the spine than the control group. Some of the racers, young men in their 20s, had osteopenia in their spines, a medical condition only one step below full-blown osteoporosis. "To find guys in their twenties with osteopenia was surprising and pretty disturbing," Smathers says. The alternative choice - Steven Chu wants to save the world by transforming its largest industry: energy WHETHER Steven Chu, America's energy secretary, would be flattered or horrified by the comparison is unclear, but he and Margaret Thatcher have something important in common. They are both scientists who have risen to political power. That Mr Chu has a Nobel prize for physics, whereas Lady Thatcher swiftly abandoned chemistry for the more lucrative pastures of the law, does not make the comparison unfair. What matters is that both of them understand something that some politicians from softer intellectual backgrounds often seem to forget: you cannot negotiate with nature. Nor can you ignore it, for it will not go away. Lady Thatcher showed her mettle in this regard in 1989, when she became the first politician of stature to raise the alarm about global warming. When her adviser Crispin Tickell pointed out to her that the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was rising and that carbon dioxide was a greenhouse gas, she got the point instantly and alerted the world in a speech to the United Nations. Mr Chu's job is harder: he is charged with spotting, nurturing and promoting promising energy technologies, thereby helping America to create the tools that the world needs to wean itself off fossil fuels. Wesley Clark: Ethanol's field general (Fortune Magazine) -- If ever there were an industry in need of a general, it's the ethanol industry. Already under siege from food companies blaming biofuels for rising grocery prices, ethanol companies are now seeing their profit margins crushed by falling prices for their product. Compounding the problem, many environmentalists -- who five minutes ago seemed to be in ethanol's corner -- have turned against the corn-based fuel. Reporting for duty in ethanol's counterattack: Wesley Clark, the retired four-star general and former NATO commander, who signed on in February as co-chairman of an upstart ethanol trade group called Growth Energy. Clark, 64, has fully embraced the private sector since ending his run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004. In addition to co-chairing Growth Energy, Clark is on the board of Dutch wind-turbine maker Juhl Wind and serves as chairman of the New York investment bank Rodman & Renshaw. At Growth Energy, Clark has lobbied against efforts in California to hold ethanol accountable for deforestation in Brazil, he's pushed back against claims that diverting corn to ethanol drives up food prices, and he's spoken out in favor of a Growth Energy proposal to increase the maximum allowable ethanol blend in conventional gasoline to 15% from 10%. Oil Falls, Gasoline Drops to 5-Week Low as U.S. Payrolls Slip (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell and gasoline slipped to a five-week low on a report showing the U.S. unemployment rate rose last month, a signal that fuel demand in the world's largest energy-consuming country will be slow to rebound. Energetic blackmail IN BLACKMAIL timing can be everything. The governments of Russia and Ukraine have cause to ponder this after failing to extract billions of euros from the European Union in the name of keeping Russian gas flowing to Europe next winter. Thanks to recession and competition from cheaper suppliers, European demand for Russian gas has fallen. It is also summer. So right now governments and gas companies are unusually brave over threats to cut off the gas. They have resisted pressure to give Ukraine a huge loan that both the Russians and Ukraine's squabbling leaders say is needed to avoid another dispute like the one that blocked Russian gas in January, affecting 18 of the 27 EU countries. Whether Europe's nerve will hold as winter approaches remains to be seen. Russia supplies 42% of all EU gas imports, and its share is rising. Russia's Gazprombank puzzles analysts as NPLs stable MOSCOW (Reuters) - Gazprombank, the banking arm of Russian state energy company Gazprom, puzzled analysts on Thursday by showing its share of non-performing loans (NPLs) stayed unchanged in the first quarter of 2009. Top Russian banks such as state-controlled Sberbank (SBER03.MM) and VTB (VTBR.MM) are struggling with losses as bad loans rise. BP shuts alternative energy HQ BP has shut down its alternative energy headquarters in London, accepted the resignation of its clean energy boss and imposed budget cuts in moves likely to be seen by environmental critics as further signs of the oil group moving "back to petroleum". Beacon Power, Nordic Windpower Get Loan Guarantees (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Energy Department issued $59 million in conditional loan guarantees to Beacon Power Corp. and Nordic Windpower, part of a four-year-old program for alternative energy that has yet to finance any projects. The conditional loan guarantees announced by the department today, which are the second and third issued, are contingent on the companies providing further financing. Estimating errors in U.S. oil demand (Reuters) - The market is transfixed by the weekly inventory and consumption estimates for crude oil and products published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). But the backward-looking nature of parts of the reporting system makes it liable to miss turning points. Consumption and exports numbers are especially vulnerable to errors. For the last three years, preliminary estimates for U.S. petroleum consumption (more formally called "product supplied to the domestic market") published in the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) have been revised down when more comprehensive data becomes available in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) published six weeks later. The core of the problem is the statistical system's struggle to account for soaring exports of refined products, especially distillates to Europe. Because the agency is systematically under-estimating exports, it is over-estimating consumption, and being forced to trim the figures when more data becomes available. John Michael Greer: Where Economics Fails Understand current economic thought and you understand most of the mistakes that are dragging industrial civilization down to ruin. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), a branch of the US government, has become infamous in the peak oil scene over the last decade or so for publishing estimates of future petroleum production that have no relationship to geological reality. Their methodology, as described in EIA publications, was simply to estimate probable increases in demand, and then to assume that increased demand would automatically be met with a corresponding increase in supply. Quite a few peak oil writers have suggested some dark conspiracy behind this blithe disregard for the limits of a finite planet, but it takes only a few minutes' worth of reading to identify the real culprit as the standard notion of the law of supply and demand taught in every first-year economics textbook today. Iraq to push back second oil bidding round Iraq is planning to push back its second oil bidding round to develop 11 oil and gas fields after a disappointing showing in the first offer. The process had been scheduled to be completed by end of this year. But Oil Ministry spokesman Assem Jihad says the second round will be held at a later date that has yet to be determined. Oil's history, for better or worse On June 1 1932, some 7½ months after they sunk a drill into the ground in the shadow of a scraggly hill called the "Mountain of Smoke", a group of prospectors and scallywags led by the New Zealand owner of a pharmacy in Aden hit oil 35km south of Manama. Today, like a metal shrub with twisted branches, a capped well juts from the rocky ground marking the original spot where the massively prolific Arabian Oil Basin was first tapped. Nearby is a plaque commemorating Jabal Ad Dukhan No 1 and a museum bearing the sign, "It All Began in Bahrain". Pakistan: Vegetables getting out of common man's reach LAHORE - The transporters, businessmen, growers, consumers and general public have strongly rejected the sharp increase in the fuel prices announced by the so-called people friendly PPP-led government and said that it would push more people below the poverty line besides multiplying the miseries of the already inflation-stricken public. Weak auto sales continue into June NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Most major automakers reported weaker than expected U.S. sales for June, proving yet again that the industry's pain hasn't ended. But there are some glimmers of hope. Rail crisis: London-to-Edinburgh route to be nationalised The government is to nationalise Britain's largest rail franchise after National Express confirmed that it can no longer afford the £1.4bn east coast contract. In a serious blow to franchise policy, the Department for Transport will take the London-to-Edinburgh route into public ownership at the end of the year. The transport secretary, Lord Adonis, said the contract will be put back up for auction to private companies at the end of next year but it is expected to fetch much less than £1.4bn, leaving the state with a gap in its rail budget. "It is simply unacceptable to reap the benefits of contracts when times are good, only to walk away from them when times become more challenging," said Adonis. First Biodiesel Pipeline Starts Operations A commercial shipment of biodiesel has moved through a pipeline in the United States for the first time, according to Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, a pipeline company. A 5 percent biodiesel blend moved from Mississippi to Georgia, and also from Mississippi to Virginia, via the Plantation Pipe Line Company, which is owned jointly by Kinder Morgan with a 51 percent stake, and Exxon Mobil with 49 percent. Last December, Kinder Morgan announced that the nation's first ethanol pipeline had begun service. Heading into the holiday: Fewer miles at higher cost The nation heads into the Independence Day holiday weekend amid the longest and steepest decline in driving since the invention of the automobile. Since the number of miles traveled by motor vehicles in the USA peaked in November 2007, the nation's 12-month total has dropped by 123 billion miles, or slightly more than 4%. That's a bigger decline than the drop of just above 3% during the 1979-80 Iranian revolution that triggered a spike in gasoline prices in the USA. The 4% drop is the equivalent of taking between 8 million and 10 million drivers off the road. "We may be witnessing the beginning of a fundamental shift in American driving habits," says Ed McMahon, senior research fellow at the Urban Land Institute, a non-profit group that promotes innovative development. Oil Falls to Lowest in a Week on Forecast U.S. Shed More Jobs (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell to the lowest in a week before a report forecast to show U.S. unemployment increased last month, signaling the world's largest energy user remains mired in recession. U.S. fuel demand in the four weeks ended June 26 dropped 5.8 percent from a year earlier, while demand for distillate fuel including heating oil and diesel, fell 9.4 percent, according to a Department of Energy report yesterday. The Labor Department will likely report the U.S. shed an additional 365,000 jobs in June, a Bloomberg survey showed. Barclays Raises U.S. Oil Forecast 15% on Fundamentals (Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc raised its third-quarter forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude oil by 14.5 percent from an estimate in June, citing expectations for fundamentals in commodity markets to return to "normalcy." The forecast for benchmark futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange was revised to $71 a barrel from $62, Barclays Capital analysts led by Paul Horsnell said in a weekly report yesterday. Barclays increased its projections for Brent crude by 9.5 percent to $69 a barrel and left forecasts for the fourth quarter and 2010 unchanged. 'Oil over $100 would hurt global economy' "Hopefully in the third quarter and fourth quarter, it won't surpass $100 as this will fuel recession again," Sheikh Ahmad al-Abdullah al-Sabah told reporters in parliament. Oil had already hit the price that Opec was looking for in the second half of the year, he said. Speculators and US dollar weakness were among the factors behind the rise, Sheikh Ahmad said. Asian LNG Spot Trade May Shrink 73% This Year, Repsol Says (Bloomberg) -- Shipments of liquefied natural gas to Asia from the Atlantic Ocean area may shrink by about 73 percent this year as Japan and South Korea, the world's biggest buyers, cut imports, said an official from Repsol YPF SA. Supplies of spot LNG from projects from countries such as in Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Egypt and Algeria may fall to about 4 million metric tons this year, or to 2006 levels, from about 15 million last year, said Strategic Planning Director Ane Arino Ochoa at Spain's largest oil company. "We expect a reduction in LNG traded this year because of the economic crisis," she said after speaking at the Next Generation LNG conference in Singapore yesterday. "There will be a surplus of LNG in the global markets in the short term." India Gas Demand Set to Rise as Fertilizer Makers Add Capacity (Bloomberg) -- India's demand for natural gas is set to increase as fertilizer makers spend as much as 50 billion rupees ($1 billion) in the next three years to boost capacity by 35 percent, an official said. Fertilizer companies may need an additional 24 million cubic meters a day of gas to feed new plants and existing ones that are switching from using naphtha and fuel oil, Satish Chander, director-general of the Fertilizer Association of India, said by telephone from New Delhi. India - Econ survey: decontrol petrol, diesel prices NEW DELHI (Reuters) -- India should end controls on prices of petrol and diesel and allow entry for private and foreign firms in the energy sector, a finance ministry survey said on Thursday. PVM Loses About $10 Million in Unauthorized Trades Bloomberg) -- PVM Oil Futures Ltd., a unit of the world's biggest broker of over-the-counter oil derivatives, said it lost just under $10 million as a result of unauthorized trading in futures contracts on June 30. "As a result of a series of unauthorized trades, substantial volumes of futures contracts were held by PVM," Robin Bieber, director of PVM Oil Futures Ltd., said in an e- mailed statement today. "When this was discovered the positions were closed in an orderly fashion. PVM suffered a loss totaling a little under $10 million." BP Pay Changes for Contract Workers Threatens North Sea Strikes (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc, Europe's second-largest oil company, plans to cut pay for North Sea contract staff, risking strike action later this year. BP wants to reduce the cost of offshore platform workers employed through contractors and plans to end discretionary payments including overtime built-in to the day rate and automatic night shift payments. The changes cut pay as much as 20 percent for 800 people, union leaders say. Are we at the peak of oil production? There are some that believe that the ever increasing rise in gas prices over the past years is a clear indication of peaking. The spike of oil prices and crash in 2008 is said to be the peak point of production. This is a question we cannot fully know the answers to till probably 5 or 10 years out. Raymond James, the investment company that the Buccaneers football team's stadium is named for, released a press release declaring peak oil: "represents a paradigm shift of historic proportions. Unfortunately, mankind better get ready to live in a peak oil world because we believe the 'peak' is now behind us." Flashing Lights on the Console KMO welcomes Albert K. Bates back to the program, and they sit down together for a chat with Richard Heinberg, author of Peak Everything. Albert admits that he's finding it hard to maintain his "soft lander" status in the face of mounting evidence, and Richard talks about the themes in his new book, Blackout: Coal, Climate and the Last Energy Crisis. Our idea of progress must change We've raised our standard of living to record heights -- so high, in fact that, if everyone lived like we do in North America, we would need three or four earths. To keep our way of life rolling along, we need to make more things. As the satirical newspaper The Onion put it, quoting a fictional Chinese worker: "Often, when we're assigned a new order for, say, 'salad shooters,' I will say to myself, there's no way that anyone will ever buy these . . . One month later, we will receive an order for the same product, but three times the quantity . . I hear that [North] Americans can buy anything they want, and I believe it, judging from the things I've made for them. And I also hear that, when they no longer want an item, they simply throw it away. So wasteful and contemptible." But such is our personal measure of progress: whoever has the most stuff when they die, wins. Nova Scotia needs a new deal I want to come back to a second to the beginning of this. I'm not sure that what we want to look at is called "recovery." I think we're talking about a restructuring of the economic system and it won't look the same---it can't look the same. I've got a quote here from George Monbiot, who says, "Climate breakdown, peak oil and resource depletion will all dwarf the current financial crisis, in both financial and humanitarian terms." So unless we start thinking long-term, this current economic meltdown is going to seem like very small potatoes. Feds, Colo. hash out agreement on oil, gas rules DENVER -- Colorado's new oil and gas rules, denounced by the industry as the most burdensome in the country, now apply to federal land as well as private and state land. Stricter oil and gas regulations took effect on private and state land in Colorado on April 1. Enforcement of the rules was delayed on federal land to give state and federal officials time to sort through any conflicts. Oil Contract Rows Rock Uganda Ahead of Production The Ugandan government is embroiled in disputes with politicians and activists over its failure to reveal the contents of contracts with oil-exploration companies operating in the country ahead of the start of oil production on the Ugandan side of the Albertine Rift on the country's western border. Iran 'disqualifies' EU from talks The EU is no longer qualified to take part in talks on Iran's nuclear programme, Iran's military chief says. Maj-Gen Hassan Firouzabadi, Iran's chief of staff, accused the EU of "interference" in riots which followed June's disputed presidential elections. Kenya unveils renewable energy drive NAIROBI (AFP) -- Kenya on Wednesday unveiled extensive plans to invest in renewable energy, including free distribution of one million energy-saving light bulbs in exchange for ordinary bulbs. The measures announced by Prime Minister Raila Odinga also include subsidising the price of solar water heaters for public institutions, firms and households. Kenya: Sex in a Time of Famine "Prostitution seems to be the only option out of hunger. The relief food offered by the government is too little and irregular," says Mr Keleli. About 75 per cent of people in this region live below the poverty line. The land is semi arid and unproductive, with very little economic activity. Charcoal burning has for a long time been the only means of upkeep. But with the current drought, trees have diminished, leaving residents with no reliable source of livelihood. Clean Energy Investment Leaps In Second Quarter LONDON - Global investment in clean energy and climate-friendly technologies leapt in the last three months but full-year levels won't recover until 2010 or 2011, analysts said on Wednesday. Falling energy demand and more expensive debt have hurt large renewable projects for example in wind and solar power. Recession has cut risk appetite, curbing funding for clean technology start-ups. But global clean energy investment rebounded in the past three months, after a 44 percent collapse in the first quarter, and stimulus spending could spur a return to last year's funding levels in 2010, according to research group New Energy Finance. "It's a big bounce back," said Michael Liebreich, NEF chief executive, referring to preliminary numbers to be published later this week or next. Brazil launches bus powered by hydrogen fuel cells SAO PAULO -- Sao Paulo state officials have launched what they say is Latin America's first passenger bus with an electric engine powered by hydrogen fuel cells. Gov. Jose Serra says the bus will start test runs on the streets of South America's biggest city in August and will be joined by three similarly powered vehicles next year. The Future of Transport With Peak Oil just around the corner, humans are going to be faced with very few options for mobility in the future -- stop travelling or find alternative forms of transport. Imagine travelling with dozens of balloons or in a futuristic-looking helium ship or maybe in a car made of vegetables and powered by chocolate. Sound too good to be true? Check out our collection of the craziest forms of green transport. UK Wind Boom Spikes Prices, Threatens Plants: Study LONDON - The dramatic growth in wind turbines around the British Isles may lead to huge spikes in power prices by 2030 and threaten the viability of backup plants needed for calm periods, according to Poyry Energy Consulting. Britain and Ireland have ambitious targets to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions, with wind turbines expected to reduce most of the climate warming gasses from the power sector. But the level of wind energy envisaged will lead to extreme price swings by 2030, with times of negative prices when the wind blows hard and spikes to almost 8,000 pounds per megawatt hour when the wind drops, according to a new study by Poyry. Group: World failing to halt biodiversity decline GENEVA -- Governments are failing to stem a rapid decline in biodiversity that is now threatening extinction for almost half the world's coral reef species, a third of amphibians and a quarter of mammals, a leading environmental group warned Thursday. "Life on Earth is under serious threat," the International Union for Conservation of Nature said in a 155-page report that describes the past five years of a losing battle to protect species, natural habitats and geographical regions from the devastating effects of man. Brazil flora risk greater than thought: study RIO DE JANEIRO (AFP) -- Nearly 2,300 plant species are at risk of disappearing from flora-rich Brazil, many more than once thought, according to an academic study released on Wednesday. The research, carried out by 175 scientists, indicates the Brazilian government has dramatically underestimated the risk to the country's plant species caused by deforestation, fires and urbanization. Controlling Immigration Critical to Meeting Goals on U.S. Greenhouse Emissions, Finds New Report by FAIR Immigration, Energy and the Environment addresses America's stifled immigration policy debate: it finds that America's massive immigration-fueled population growth was the single largest contributing factor to the nation's increased energy consumption and carbon emissions over the past 35 years. Even without a massive amnesty for illegal aliens supported by President Obama and congressional leaders, immigration will be the driving factor as U.S. population approaches the half billion mark by mid-century. Canada and Japan blocking climate-change deal, Sir David King warns Canada and Japan were blocking a possible deal on climate change at the Copenhagen summit, Sir David King, the former Chief Scientific Adviser, warned yesterday. Speaking at the World Conference of Science Journalists, Sir David said that the two countries had stepped into the breach left by the Bush Administration, which had strongly resisted cutting CO2 emissions. "Copenhagen is faltering at the moment," said Sir David. "The Americans are now fully engaged. But several countries are blocking the process." Senate May Pass U.S. Climate Bill, Reject Treaty, Kerry Says (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Senate may pass legislation to slow climate change and then fail to approve a global treaty that commits nations to do so, Senator John Kerry said. Kerry, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, will be a leader in Senate efforts to place the first domestic curbs on greenhouse gases, after the House approved a measure last week. Even if a Senate bill passes, there may not be enough support to ratify an international accord incorporating the U.S. commitments, the Massachusetts Democrat said in an interview. China blasts US climate bill BEIJING (AFP) -- China said on Thursday that it was "firmly" opposed to provisions in a new US clean energy bill that will make it easier to impose trade penalties on nations that reject limits to globe-warming pollution. "China is firmly opposed to such measures," vice foreign minister He Yafei told reporters in Beijing. "We are firmly against such attempts to advance trade protectionism under the pretext of climate change. It is not conducive to world economic recovery. It serves nobody's interests."

Dopamine Returned on Energy Invested (DREI)?

On a steamy Friday night my 10 year old son and I headed over to the rodeo grounds. It is only about a mile from our home and within the city limits, though on the eastern edge where the town merges into the valley landscape of pastures and tree-lined creeks and ditches. As we approached, it was obvious that a large crowd had gathered. A long line extended from the ticket booth and the stands looked nearly full. Friends had tipped me off about what was going on only 10 minutes earlier, while thousands of others had obviously been looking forward to this event. It was a truck and tractor pull. On a hot summer night truck pull fans fill the stadium at the rodeo grounds in Willits, CA. Behind the dust is a weighted sled, called Terminator, that eventually forces the truck to stall. Truck pull images by Ree Slocum. I place this sport in the same category as NASCAR, demolition derby, drag racing, and motor cross: An internal combustion engine of one sort or another propels a vehicle with a driver. Speed, power, agility, longevity or luck may sort among winners and losers. In this particular version, a weighted sled steadily increases the resistance the further it travels. Vehicles pull until they stop, usually in an engine stall and a cloud of dust. Because Willits is a relatively small town, anonymity is not possible once you become involved in community affairs. I am on the board of a couple of non-profits related to energy and sustainability, have a radio show on a local station, two kids in the school system, and run a small farm that serves local customers. I brought attention to the subject of peak oil in October of 2005 by showing the film The End of Suburbia every other week for about a year. I offer this background because people who know me would likely surmise (correctly) that if I were "supreme ruler" nothing like this would ever happen. I asked a city councilor in attendance (the same person who alerted me to its occurrence) if this event is in conflict with the City's pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 90% below 2005 levels by 2050, a goal I had a hand in developing? The City of Willits and a who's who of community organizations also signed a sustainability vision statement I wrote. Was this part of that vision? She just smiled and remarked that energy isn't expensive enough yet. I was recognized by a member of the Frontier Day's Committee, which are the folks who run the rodeo grounds. He sided up to me to verbalize how he saw the equations balancing out with respect to the spectacle. "Using a lot of fuel, aren't they?" He spoke directly into my ear to compensate for the cylinder blasts. "But you know, this is a big crowd and it really helps us cover the cost of our lease. It's the first time we've done this." I simply smiled and gave a nod. The crowd was big. Ten times bigger, in fact, than any I had been able to attract with notions of peak oil, economic collapse, relocalization, renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, or a host of other hot topics. What should I make of that? My son shouted out a running commentary that reflected my own mixed emotions. As the announcer explained in testosterone-laden tones, the turbo diesels spent about a minute "Building their Boost!" before releasing the clutch. During this process, black soot emerged from pairs of thick chrome pipes to neck craning heights, which served to tense the crowd. On several such occasions my son looked up at me to say, "They're polluting the Earth!" And yet, perhaps ten seconds later as the truck stalled some 300 ft down the dirt track we whooped excitedly with everybody else. Our brains were being whip lashed by dueling neurotransmitters. The neocortex was giving us one signal, namely "Polluting Earth Bad," while the limbic system was giving us countervailing signals, specifically "THIS IS SO COOL!" In fact, that is the other phrase my son used often that night. So on a cycle that repeated every several minutes, I would pump my fists and shout "YEAH!", but as the rush of dopamine waned, nagging concerns regarding the energy expenditure would re-emerge. Sometimes the motions of a really fine vehicle, such as the ones propelled by jet engines, would keep me "amped" even while the track was being prepared between runs by rumbling dozers, rollers, and the periodic water truck. (I am not going to delve into the neurophysiology and evolution of the brain in this post. Please see this one instead.) I found myself drawn to the particular form of White Lightening. It wasn't of the largest class of trucks, and the length of its pull disappointed somewhat, but the elegance of its lines and the beauty of its exhaust flames can't be denied. It wasn't only the fuel injection on a 2000 hp engine going full tilt for 10 seconds that bothered me, but the knowledge that these beasts were coming from all over the state. The names of the vehicles I remember include White Lightning, Semper Fi and Get it Done (which ended up being the big winner, pulling the Terminator sled over 350 ft, dragging it out of bounds and finishing in a perilous side-ways slide). The geographic names included San Luis Obispo, Red Bluff and Bakersfield. And my son and I constituted the majority of the subpopulation that made it to the rodeo grounds via the most energy efficient transportation device every made--the humble bike running at less than one horsepower and burning non-fossil carbohydrate fuels. I don't want anybody to get the impression that I judge the people who regularly attend diversions such as the truck pull much differently than my own cohort. The following is a list of low Dopamine Returned on Energy Invested (DREI) activities undertaken by friends and family. These are people who I have personally addressed on the subjects dear to readers of The Oil Drum, and some of them even help me try to "save" civilization, the planet, and other important stuff. • Fly to Las Vegas to see Cirque du Soleil. This is remarkably common and not limited to any one individual. The most recent "must see show" was The Beatles Love, and I admit it looks awfully tempting! Although I have not seen the performance, I gather from this image that I would be pleasured by it. • Spend a week on a Cajun Dance Cruise ship. My wife and I are invited to this one yearly, and it is especially difficult to pass up. • Ski in the Rockies. Ski in the Sierras, etc. • Vacations in Europe, Asia, etc. I haven't done any carbon footprint analysis to compare the truck pull to the diversions more in line with my own tastes and those of my peers. Obviously they all use gargantuan amounts of energy. I am a firm believer in the notion that the one-time endowment of Earthly oil should be viewed as a precious gift, and that if any of it needs to be used to it should be allocated towards deploying the technology and infrastructure that would lower our ecological footprint enough not to despoil our home. Anytime I see gallons of fossil fuels being burned I realize that the btus released are enormous, dwarfing the potential power output of human bodies or domesticated animals. Without a renewable energy infrastructure in place before depletion of oil sets in, I fear social convulsions of the worst sort. For example, if we lose our energy slaves will we somehow justify human ones again? And yet we burn it up so frivolously. This final quote from my son summarizes the situation aptly: "Dad, this is so crazy!" Nate Hagens and I discussed this topic as part of one of our radio interviews. On that program Nate recommended trying to discover diversions that use little energy, in other words, have a high DREI. I doubt most of the crowd at the truck pull had listened to any of my shows. But even among those of us "in the know," a challenge we face is dealing with the addictive aspects of energy intensive activities. On the way back home I met John Jeavons and related my recent experiences. He commented on a time in Mexico, where he was teaching GROW BIOINTENSIVE farming in a workshop. It was in a port city and one day an impressively enormous cruise ship loomed over the docks, its thousands of passengers disgorging into the streets and tourist shops. He thought about the amount the urine and feces produced each day on a ship like that, how much food could be grown with it, and knowing that the mineral wealth of the modern food system and the resulting effluent came from mines and natural gas wells that were low entropy geological riches scooped up using machines running on oil…and yet it was all being dispersed into the ocean. We like to share stories on Campfire. So I'd like to hear from you about the following: 1. Have you been able to move away from low DREI habits and replace them with high DREI ones? 2. What experiences have you had like mine and John Jeavons', being simultaneously awed and disgusted by the excesses of our world? 3. Why should I deprive myself of the great hedonistic pleasures of the age of oil if I can still afford them since very few others willingly curtail? 4. Is information sufficient to change behavior, and if not, what does? 5. I recognized very few faces at the truck pull, even though I live in a small town. What does this say about the cultural diversity of society and does that diversity make it more or less challenging to adapt to change? Story Update: Coverage of the event in The Willits News is now available.

Energy Bulletin (peak)

ODAC Newsletter - July 3

A weekly review from a UK perspective - "The first round in the great Iraqi oil sale was an interesting affair if not a very conclusive one. In the live TV auction which took place on Tuesday, only one deal was reached as international oil companies refused to meet the terms demanded... read more

BLM Opens Doors for SW Solar Grand Plan

Just a year and a half after a breakthrough Solar Grand Plan study was published in the January 2008 Scientific American, the U.S. government has begun plans to implement major elements of such a Plan. read more

It's not black or white

If we are to have any chance of working our way out of this mess, we must avoid regressive thinking, stay calm, appreciate complexity, and think clearly about the right course of action. I'm going to take a proper look at speculation in the oil market to see what the problems are and what we might actually do about them. read more

Debt, oil and healthcare reform

...the ongoing healthcare debate in Washington is anachronistic. A future oriented analysis has to include two driving forces: first, the long-term consequences of the fiscal/economic crisis and, second, the arrival of geological peak oil... read more

Peak oil notes - July 2

A weekly round-up including: - Prices and production - The auction read more

Global Public Media

Peak Moment: Permaculture for Humanity

Deconstructing Dinner: Sailing Vegetables in Puget Sound /The Local Grain Revolution VIII: Sourdough Waffles

Deconstructing Dinner: Sailing Grain (The Local Grain Revolution Part VII)

Crop to Cuisine: Food & Wine Magazine Celebrates Sustainable Food in Aspen

Reality Report: Michael Bomford Interview

Google News

Are we at the peak of oil production? - Creative Loafing Tampa

Are we at the peak of oil production?Creative Loafing TampaIn the late 1970s, Jimmy Carter made a speech to the nation about the peak oil problem, He asked the country to seek a sustainable lifestyle. ...and more »

The Peak Oil Crisis: Stifling a Rebound - Falls Church News Press

ArabianBusiness.comThe Peak Oil Crisis: Stifling a ReboundFalls Church News PressOil producers made one last effort to keep up with demand and in doing so may have pushed world oil production to an all time high - the "peak" in peak oil. ...Beware of another oil shockLivemintThere are five supply-side issues that could cause oil prices to ...Seeking Alphathe energy report - The Fed's Fickle Finger of Fateeltee.de - trade the futureall 1,638 news articles »

Lawrence Roulston: Challenges and Enormous Opportunities in ... - Seeking Alpha

Lawrence Roulston: Challenges and Enormous Opportunities in ...Seeking AlphaTER: The first issue of GreenTech Opportunities focused on two key factors for a pending demand for changes in our fuel consumption: 1) peak oil/gas - we ...and more »

Book Review: Blackout - Domestic Fuel

Domestic FuelBook Review: BlackoutDomestic FuelBest estimates are that the world will see Peak Coal by 2025 and many believe that the world has already witnessed Peak Oil. Now, you're just waiting for me ...and more »

Peak oil v home-made jam - Times Online Blogs

Peak oil v home-made jamTimes Online BlogsBelieve it or not, I don't like writing scare stories, such as my recent post on peak oil, which won a flurry of passionate comments, and nor do I enjoy ...and more »

Oilism

Crude Oil: Focus on OPEC

OPEC has more reason than ever to cut the oil productions. Will the oil cartel be able the push back oil prices again? “A price of 75 dollars a barrel is fair for oil producers and consumers. This is said by Saudi Arabia last year, according to Bloomberg. With this in mind is a further reduction of [...]

Perfect Time to trade Longterm Oil Positions

Crude Oil exchange is described as a free market economy because investors are not really sure whether their invested money will get any revenue or not, because of it's volatile nature. We do not have to mention that the price of barrel of crude was just less than 7 months ago above 130 USD! Some [...]

Oil Shortage likely from 2010

From next year a lack of oil arise as the world economy recovers from the current deep recession. This is said by the chief executive of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Nobuo Tanaka, he states that oil producers are investing too little in new projects with current market circumstances. ”The demand for oil is very low because of the extremely poor economic [...]

Oil Price Down the Drain Due Credit Crisis and Gas Conflict

By signing the gas agreement between Russia and Ukraine the oil price fell back sharply. The price of a barrel of U.S. light crude oil now hovers around 34 dollars, a decrease of over 7 percent with earlier this week. In December 2008, crude oil prices fell for the first time since the summer of 2004 [...]

Russia stops supplying Europe with gas via Ukraine

KIEV - On Wednesday Russia shut down all gas deliveries intended for the European market through the pipelines in the Ukraine because of the gas conflict between Kiev and Moscow. This is said by the Ukrainian national gas company Naftogaz. About 80 percent of Russian natural gas that is destined for Europe passes through pipelines in [...]

PeakOil.com

Lawrence Roulston: Challenges and Enormous Opportunities in Alternative Energy

The Energy Report caught up with newsletter writer and analyst Lawrence Roulston, who recently launched the GreenTech Opportunities newsletter. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Roulston gives us his thoughts on developments that are happening in the alternative energy field, and ideas for profiting in a changing world.

Ethanol interest appears to wane with the economy

Minnesota has been an unofficial testing ground for using ethanol to fuel vehicles, but after years of steady increases, interest appears to be waning. Despite a push from the governor and an increase in the number of so-called flexible-fuel vehicles on the road — which can run on either gasoline or a mostly ethanol blend — sales of E85 have dipped in recent months, beyond the normal decline in winter months.

Uncle Sam to pond scum: I want you!

LOGAN, Utah (AP) — Somewhere among the beakers and the bubbling green-tinged tanks in this Utah State University lab, Jeff Muhs is searching for champion pond scum for Uncle Sam. If he and others like him around the country are successful, algae-based biofuel could one day power one of the world's biggest gas guzzlers: the U.S. military.

Shell ceases production in Niger Delta

Royal Dutch Shell has suspended its operations in the Western Niger Delta, giving into increasing pressure from the MEND rebels in the region. Shell confirmed the closure of its oil plants in the region following a spike in attacks on the company's facilities and employees, Nigerian media reported.

Nigeria, Algeria, Niger Sign Accord on Gas Pipeline

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Nigeria, Algeria and Niger signed an agreement on a proposed Trans-Saharan pipeline that will ship natural gas from Nigeria to Europe. The accord was signed by Nigerian Petroleum Minister Rilwanu Lukman, Niger’s Energy Minister Mohammed Abdullahi and his Algerian counterpart Chakib Khelil in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, today. The project will cost an estimated $10 billion, he said at the signing ceremony.

Aleklett Energy Mix

Tällberg Forum 2009

The Tällberg Forum for 2009 is over and I must summarise four intensive days, my expectations, what I experienced and how this year's forum influenced me and my future activities. The Tällberg Forum has been held on a lesser scale for many years. However, 5 years ago the forum grew to become a meeting place for around 400 people from all over the world. Politicians, industry leaders, researchers from various disciplines, representatives of international organisations and representatives from various NGOs (Non-Governmental Organisations). We all mixed together in an environment where casual clothing is donned and the formal wear from our baggage is left dangling on coat hangers in our rooms. The fact that the name tags only state ones name and that we are then thrown together promotes the possibility of interesting meetings. As an example I can cite the concluding round table discussion where one of my Ph.D. students discussed the future with Kenya's ambassador to Sweden, a meeting that would never have happened under conventional protocol. The organiser's hopes can be summarised in the following lines from what they call the "Tällberg Forum Companion", "The objective for this year's forum is to help participants get new insights about the word today and the converging crises we see. These insights and the ever-deepening understanding of the human and natural systems we live in can then influence our practical ideas for policy, strategy and institutional development." Tällberg is a place where nature, culture and humanity is combined in an positive way. This year the forces of nature had decided to place a shining sun in the sky every day for 20 hours. It felt like a "thank you" for everything that the Tällberg Forum is trying to do for Mother Earth. (Detailed program for the Tällberg Forum of 2009) We who came to Tällberg on Wednesday afternoon could enjoy Mattias Klum's wonderful photographs, some of them portraying the beauty of nature but also images that showed how we humans can be destructive and forever after leave our mark on nature. We who read National Geographic always enjoy our Swedish photographer's fantastic photojounalism. When Bo Ekman opened his year's forum the theme was "How on Earth can we live together, within the planetary boundaries?" The first one to describe the limits within we live was Emanuel Mori, the President of the Federated States of Micronesia, an island group spread over an area the size of the USA but only two metres above sea level. What will happen when the sea-level rises? In the last 100 years it has risen by 20 centimetres but if the coming 100 years brings a rise of one metre it will be a catastrophe. The current rate of sea-level rise is actively discussed in the research world. Many believe that it is human activity that has caused an increase in the world's temperature and that this causes the glaciers to melt and the sea-level to rise. For many of the world's inhabitants it is current political activities that are more devastating than future catastrophes. A clear example is Rwanda. For us it is incomprehensible that, during such a short interval, so many could be so cruelly tortured and slaughtered. Now they are trying to build a new Rwanda and Rosemary Museminali, Rwanda's foreign minister described this work. You will note that Rwanda came to be a personal theme for me during this year's forum. It is not possible to describe everything that was discussed and that happened in Tällberg, but if you want to spend a few hours listening to the plenary activities you can go to the website for "video on demand" and experience what I experienced. There you will find, among other things, the two speeches that I mentioned above. (link to webpage) What is not documented is all the work that went on in about 40 workshops. The first lot of workshops were "Reality Check Sessions" and, the one I participated in was, (not entirely unexpectedly) Energy. The moderator for Energy was Ged R. Davis, Co-President, Global Energy Assessment, IIASA, Vienna. Since our research group had just concluded an analysis of the International Energy Agency's future oil production scenario described in their "World Energy Outlook 2008" report, I was keen to show some of our images and discuss the results. Ged suggested that I should show only two images during the 100 minutes that the workshop would occupy. I explained that I needed to show more but did not receive any sympathy. The most important thing was the agenda that he and Global Energy Assessment had prepared. Any other energy future did not seem plausible. The basic theme was BAU, "Business As Usual" and what reductions were required to break that trend. After about an hour and many attempts I was finally allowed to show my "two pictures". While one cannot review the world's future oil production with only two images the presentation went a little longer. It was interesting to study Gus' reaction. First he sat a little nonchalantly and could not see my images but suddenly he moved and positioned himself right at the front and began to ask questions. What I showed was that BAU is not a future possibility. From now on we will have decreased carbon dioxide emissions from oil. We have reached the Peak of the Oil Age. During those final minutes left to me the real future was discussed. If you ask the participants in this year's forum what was the high point then most will cite the presentation that John Liu made on Friday evening. (If you have time I recommend that you watch his 20 minute presentation.) I have known John for almost 20 years. When he was a TV cameraman for CBS and was documenting what was happening around the planet, I was a nuclear physicist studying interactions important for understanding how the chemical elements of our planet were formed. In the autumn of 2006 we met once again in Beijing and we discovered that, during the previous 15 years we had developed towards the same goal of trying to do something meaningful for our planet's future. In 2006 John was putting together 10 years of documentation on "China's Loess Plateau Watershed Rehabilitation Project" and I was researching the global energy system. To my surprise those involved in the Loess Plateau project had not made a study of the changes in that area's energy system and the idea for a new project was born. The next summer my student Kersti Johansson travelled to China and did a fantastic job. She succeeded in showing that it was new possibilities to mine coal locally that gave the people a new energy source during the construction phase of the project. When nature in that area could once again generate biomass, then coal use decreased. The conclusion was that, in all similar projects, one must first study the local energy system and plan for provision of an alternative source of energy during the implementation phase. (Read report to SIDA conference 2008) At the end of his presentation John mentioned the work that we are planning together in Rwanda and it is therefore that Rwanda is a principal theme for me. On Saturday and the morning of Sunday we had two workshops. The first was about "Integrated Poverty Eradication and Large-scale Ecosystem Rehabilitation". The invitation said this, "Functional models of integrated poverty eradication and large-scale ecosystem rehabilitation have been found and documented. New development projects are being designed and implemented based on this thinking. This workshop is designed to share information and experiences to expand on the theoretic basis for integrated poverty eradication and large-scale ecosystem rehabilitation." Sunday's workshop concerned "Restoring Rwanda's Ntoruko Highland Wetlands", the Rwandan project that we had discussed for two years. The invitation had the following text, "The Ntoruko highland wetlands in Rwanda feed the headwaters of the White Nile and Congo Rivers. Farming activity in the mountains puts pressure on the ecosystem, substantially damaging the wetlands. Conditions suggest potential for successfully restoring ecosystem function, bringing prosperity to the area. Political will and technical understanding of the challenges indicate that the Ntoruko highland wetlands could become a prototype for integrated projects worldwide. This workshop seeks to inform a blueprint for restoration of the wetlands that will engage and employ local people rather than displace them, altering both the development trajectory and ensuring the restoration of this unique and important ecosystem." John showed films from the area and we saw that there were similarites with the Loess plateau. Then Kersti, Kristofer and Karin, my students, reviewed the various projects that we have undertaken and that impact on the Rwanda project. When Bo Ekman summarised this year's forum he referred to John's presentation and suggested that we should try to recreate the Garden of Eden as a project for peace in the Middle East. It felt wonderful to be a part of that recreation. Now it remains to be seen whether all of those that sit on the boards of funds and research councils do what they promised in Tällberg. The day ended with food, drink and music at the hotel Klockargården. Just as I was leaving I saw that Ged R. Davis was sitting in a discussion at a table so I plonked myself down to discuss energy with him. I could not resist taking up his introductory remarks on future energy reality. I mentioned that we also have different views on natural gas and coal compared with what was discussed. During the conversation Ged Davis mentioned that he was the father of the IPCC scenarios A1, A2, B1 and B2. According to the results from our research, these scenarios are completely unrealistic. In 2007 I was commissioned by the OECD to write a report and before this year is out I hope that everything we have done on this topic will be documented in the peer-reviewed literature. My report to the OECD is available to read on the internet. In summary I can say that the main theme of this year's forum was "Copenhagen in December 2009" and "350 ppm CO2". I would have liked to have seen discussions on increased food production with reduced oil use since the world's population is still growing. I would have liked to have seen discussions on how to we can get increased economic growth (globalisation) with reduced transport and, in particular, the future problems that aviation is facing. I realise that one cannot discuss all the world's important issues in just a few days and my final judgement is that it was a successful forum. (The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios can be found at http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc%5Fsr/?src=/climate/ipcc/emission/, and I now can see that Ged Davis is author number three on the report. In figure 6.5 you have the total emission from the different scenarios (http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc%5Fsr/?src=/climate/ipcc/emission/). In the report they claim that all scenarios has the same probability to be right. The starting year is 1990 and the end year is 2100. These scenarios have been handed over to the climate researchers and from these emissions temperature changes have been calculated. The 6 degree (Celsius) increase requires an increase with a factor of 5 in emissions. Nothing is said about the enormous reserves that are needed to come down from the high emissions in 2100. I feel sorry for the climate researchers that got this unrealistic data to work with.) (Swedish)) Tällberg Forum 2009 är till ända och fyra intensiva dagar skall summeras, mina förväntningar, vad jag upplevde, och hur årets forum påverkar mig och min framtida verksamhet. Tällberg Forum har pågått i mindre skala under många år, men för 5 år sedan växte forumet till en mötesplats för cirka 400 personer från hela världen. Politiker, industriledare, forskare från olika discipliner, representanter för internationella organisationer och representanter från olika NGO:s (Non Government Organisations). Vi blandas alla i en miljö där fritidsdressen plockas fram och bagagets formella attribut blir hängande på en galge i rummet. Det faktum att namnskylten bara anger namn och att vi sedan blandas ger möjligheter till intressanta möten. Som exempel kan jag nämna den avslutande rundabordsdiskussionen där en av mina doktorander diskuterar framtiden med Kenyas ambassadör i Sverige, ett möte som aldrig hade skett med konventionella skiljelinjer. Arrangörernas förhoppningar kan sammanfattas i följande rader från vad man kallar för "Tällberg Forum Companion"; "The objectives for this year's forum is to help participants get new insights about the word today and the converging crises we see. These insights and the ever-deepening understanding of the human and natural systems we live in can then influence our practical ideas for policy, strategy and institutional development." Tällberg är en plats där natur, kultur och människa blandats på ett positivt sätt. I år hade naturens makter dessutom bestämt sig för att varje dag placerat en skinande sol på himmelen under 20 timmar. Det kändes som ett tack för allt det som Tällberg Forum försöker göra för moder jord. (Detaljerat program för Tällberg Forum 2009) Vi som kommit till Tällberg på onsdag eftermiddag kunde njuta av Mattias Klums fantastiska fotografier, dels naturens skönhet men också bilder som visade hur vi människor förstör och lämnar efter oss fotspår som för alltid förändrar vår natur. Ni som läser National Geographic får ständigt njuta av vår svenske fotografs fantastiska reportage. Då Bo Ekman öppnade årets forum var temat "How on Earth can we live together, within the planetary boundaries?" Den som först fick beskriva gränsvillkoren var Emanuel Mori, President of the Federated States of Micronesia, en ögrupp som är utspridd på en yta av USA:s storlek men bara två meter över havet. Vad händer om havsytan stiger? De senaste 100 åren har ytan stigit med 20 centimeter men om de kommande 100 åren medför en ökning med en meter blir det en katastrof. Den ökning som vi ser diskuteras i forskarvärlden och för flertalet är det mänsklig aktivitet som orsakat en temperaturökning och att denna ökning medför att glaciärer smälter och havsytan stiger. För många av jordens invånare är politiska aktiviteter i närtid mer förödande än framtida katastrofer. Ett tydligt exempel är Rwanda. För oss är det ofattbart att så många under så kort tid kunde så grymt plågas och dödas. Nu försöker man bygga upp ett nytt Rwanda och Rosemary Museminali, Rwandas utrikesminister, beskrev detta arbete. Ni kommer att märka att Rwanda kommer att bli ett personligt tema under årets forum. Det finns ingen möjlighet att beskriva allt som diskuterades och hände i Tällberg, men om ni vill tillbringa några timmar med att lyssna till planaraktiviteterna kan ni gå till sidan för "Videao on demand" och uppleva det jag fick uppleva. Där finns bland annat de två tal som jag nämnde här ovan. (länk till demandsidan). Vad som inte finns dokumenterat är allt arbetet i cirka 40 workshops. Första omgångens workshops gällde "Reality Check Sessions", och för min del blev det inte helt oväntat energi. Moderator för energy var Ged R. Davis, Co-President, Global Energy Assessment, IIASA, Vienna. Då vår forskningsgrupp just avslutat en analys av framtida oljeproduktion i World Energy Outlook 2008, Internationa Energy Agency, ville jag gärna visa några bilder och diskutera resultatet. Ged föreslog att jag skulle visa två bilder någon gång under de 100 minuter som workshopen skulle vara. Jag förklarade att det behövdes fler, men fick inte gehör för det. Vad som gällde var den agenda som han och Global Energy Assessment hade förberett. Någon annan energiframtid verkade inte möjlig. Grundtemat var att BSU, "Business as Usual" och vad som krävdes i reduktion för att bryta denna trend. Efter drygt en timma och flera försök fick jag till sist visa mina "två bilder". Då man inte kan redovisa världens framtida oljeproduktion med två bilder blev presentationen något längre. Det var intressant att studera reaktionen från Gus. Först satt han lite nonchalant så att han inte såg mina bilder, men helt plötsligt flyttade han sig och satte sig längst fram och började ställa frågor. Vad jag visade var att BSU inte var en framtida möjlighet. Vad det gäller koldioxidutsläpp i framtiden kommer vi från och med nu att ha ett minskat utsläpp från olja. Under de minuter som fanns kvar blev det verklighetens framtid som diskuterades. Om man frågar deltagare i årets forum om årets höjdpunkt kommer de flesta att nämna den presentationen som John Liu gjorde på fredagskvällen. (Om ni har tid rekommenderar jag att ni tittar på hans presentation som tar 20 minuter.) Jag har känt John sedan snart 20 år tillbaka. Då var John TV-fotograf för CBS och dokumenterade vad som hände runt om på jorden, jag var kärnfysiker som i min forskning studerade reaktioner som var av betydelse för att förstå hur grundämnena på vår jord bildats. Hösten 2006 träffades vi på nytt i Beijing och vi upptäckte att vi under 15 år utvecklats mot samma mål, att försöka göra något betydelsefullt för vår planets framtid. John höll 2006 på och sammanställa tio års dokumentation av "China's Loess Plateau Watershed Rehabilitation Project" och jag forskade om globala energisystem. Till min förvåning hade man inte gjort en studie av förändringar av energisystemet under projektets gång och iden till ett nytt projekt föddes. Nästa sommar åkte min student Kersti Johansson över till Kina och gjorde ett fantastiskt arbete och lyckades befästa att det var nya möjligheter att bryta kol lokalt som gav folket en ny energikälla under projektets uppbyggnad. Då naturen på nytt kunde ge biomassa minskade kolförbrukningen. Slutsatsen är att man i alla liknande projekt först måste studera det lokala energisystemet och planera för ett alternativ under uppbyggnad. I slutet av sin presentation nämner John det projekt som vi tillsammans planerar i Rwanda och det är därför som Rwanda är en röd tråd för mig. På lördag och söndag förmiddag hade vi två workshops och den första behandlade "Integrated Poverty Eradication and Large-scale Ecosystem Rehabilitation" och så här löd inbjudan: "Functional models of integrated poverty eradication and large-scale ecosystem rehabilitation have been found and documented. New development projects are being designed and implemented based on this thinking. This workshop is designed to share information and experiences to expand on the theoretic basis for integrated poverty eradication and large-scale ecosystem rehabilitation." Södagens workshop behandlade "Restoring Rwanda's Ntoruko Highland Wetlands", det project som vi diskuterat under två år och inbjudan hade följande text: "The Ntoruko highland wetlands in Rwanda feed the headwaters of the White Nile and Congo Rivers. Farming activity in the mountains puts pressure on the ecosystem, substantially damaging the wetlands. Conditions suggest potential for successfully restoring ecosystem function, bringing prosperity to the area. Political will and technical understanding of the challenges indicate that the Ntoruko highland wetlands could become a prototype for integrated projects worldwide. This workshop seeks to inform a blueprint for restoration of the wetlands that will engage and employ local people rather than displace them, altering both the development trajectory and ensuring the restoration of this unique and important ecosystem." John visade filmer från området och vi fick se att det fanns likheter med Loess platån. Sedan redogjorde Kersti, Kristofer och Karin om olika projekt som vi gjort och som är av betydelse för projektet. Då Bo Ekman sammanfattade årets forum blev Johns presentation åter aktuell och han föreslog att vi skulle återskapa Edens lustgård. Det känns fantastiskt att vara en del i detta. Nu återstår det att se om alla de som sitter på fonder och forskningsmedel håller vad man lovade i Tällberg. Dagen avslutades med mat, dryck och musik på hotell Klockargården. Alldeles då jag skulle gå såg jag att Ged R. Davis satt och diskuterade vid ett bord och jag slog mig ner för att diskutera energi. Kunde inte låta bli att ta upp den inledande kontrollen av energins verklighet. Nämnde att vi har andra åsikter om naturgas och kol jämfört med vad som diskuterades. Under diskussionen nämnde Ged Davis att det var han som var pappa till IPCC-scenarierna A1, A2, B1 och B2. Dessa scenarier är enligt de resultat som vi har från vår forskning helt orealistiska. År 2007 fick jag i uppdrag av OECD att skriva en rapport och innan året är slut hoppas jag att allt finns dokumenterat i artiklar som är "peer reviewed". Min rapport till OECD finns att läsa på nätet. Sammanfattningsvis kan man säga att huvudtemat för årets forum var "Köpenhamn i december 2009" och "350 ppm CO2". Jag saknade diskussioner om ökad matproduktion med minskad oljeanvändning, världens befolkning ökar. Jag saknade diskussioner om hur man skulle få ökad tillväxt med minskade transporter, och då framförallt problem med framtidens flyg. Jag vet att man inte kan diskutera alla världens viktiga frågor på några dagar och slutomdömet är ändå att det var ett lyckat forum.

Tällberg Forum -- day one/dag ett

When one hears the word "Forum" one commonly thinks of the Davos Forum where the world's economic future is discussed. The world's future and future economy is also discussed at the Tällberg Forum, but the focus is not the world's leading economies rather than the world's future from the perspective of the common man. Simply, one can say that the Tällberg Forum is a meeting place for the world's NGOs (Non-Governmental Organisations). When, more than 20 years ago, Bo Ekman started his discussions on globalisation and other questions there was a limited group that met in Tällberg. Today we are more than 400 that meet to discuss the common man's perspective as we face the future. When Bo Ekman opened this year's forum he noted that the time factor for the progression of various events had changed, "The Change of Change". One hundred years ago changes in nature were something that took a long time. Today we see changes of, for example, the Greenland ice sheet over a time period measurable in years. Today it is human structures – everything from nation states to infrastructure -- that are more stable than natural world. A simplified picture of reality is that the world today is organised so that the USA, Europe, Russia and China are the lead players in the global game. They do not allow new members into the Security Council and they guard their positions. An important driving force for the Tällberg Forum is to fight to see that other interest groups and nations are not excluded. Bo Ekman also noted that new technology is not a source of security but, rather, indicates change -- change that can sometimes radically alter our reality. The future requires increased integration between relationships and technology and everything is needed to create increased freedom. On the horizon is a dream of a new nation, "Freedomia". Bo Ekman also asserted that global fiascos exist and the greatest are the Kyoto Treaty, the Middle East and the financial crisis. Simultaneously, the future maybe requires projects where we must artificially reduce the world's average temperature, fix the global economy and undertake a massive storage of carbon dioxide. For me this is an impossible agenda. What may be closer to reality is that we must, in future, have a solar-driven economy. (Follow the first day) (In Swedish) Då man hör ordet "Forum" är det vanligt att man tänker på Davos Forum där världens framtida ekonomi diskuteras. Världens framtid och framtida ekonomi diskuteras även på Tällberg Forum, men fokus är inte världens ledande ekonomier utan snarare världens framtid utifrån den lilla människans perspektiv. Förenklat kan man säga att Tällberg Forum är en mötesplats för världens NGO:s (Non Government Organisations). Då Bo Ekman startade sina diskussioner om globalisering och andra frågor för mer än 20 år sedan var det en begränsad skara som träffades i Tällberg. Idag är vi över 400 som träffas för att diskutera den lilla människans perspektiv iför framtiden. Då Bo Ekman öppnade årets forum markerade han att tidsfaktorn för olika förlopp hade ändrat sig, The Change of Change. För hundra år sedan var förändringar i naturen något som hade en lång tidsfaktor. Idag ser vi förändringar av till exempel Grönlandsisen som har tidsfaktorer som är mätbara i år. Idag är det mänskliga konstruktioner allt från statsbildningar till infrastruktur som är stabilare än de naturliga miljöerna. En förenklad bild av verkligheten är att världen idag är organiserad så att USA, Europa, Ryssland och Kina är huvudpersoner i det globala spelet (man släpper inte in nya medlemmar i säkerhetsrådet) och man bevakar sina positioner. En viktig drivkraft för Tällberg Forum är att kämpa för att andra aktörer och länder inte lämnas utanför. Bo Ekman markerade också att ny teknolog inte var en trygghet utan snarare markerade förändringar, förändringar som ibland radikalt förändrar vår verklighet. Framtiden krävde en ökad integration mellan relationer och teknologi och allt behövs för att skapa ökad frihet. Vid horisonten fanns en dröm om landet Freedonia. Bo Ekman konstaterade också att det fanns globala fiaskon och de största var Kyotoavtalet, Mellanöstern och finanskrisen samtidigt som det i framtiden kanske krävs projekt där det krävdes att vi måste artificiellt måste sänka jordens medeltemperatut, fixa den globala ekonomin och ha en massiv lagring av koldioxid, för mig en agenda bortom verkligheten. Vad som ändå var närmare verklighet är att vi i framtiden måste ha en soldriven ekonomi.

Norwegian oil, Tällberg och Mid-summer / Norsk olja, Tällberg och midsommar

The flow of data on the internet is enormous. The trickle that finds its way to my electronic mailbox grows day after day. Most of it is junk mail but there is always something that is relevant and some messages that must be answered. The relevant mail is also growing continuously and will soon reach the ceiling! I gave up looking through the list of spam mail long ago and I only wish that there was more mail that was caught there. We are approaching our holiday time and the question is if one should close the mailbox or not. I want to highlight a message of interest from yesterday's stream and it is from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD): The NPD will not award its IOR Prize for improved oil recovery for 2008. According to the IEA, an important feature of future oil production will be increased "oil recovery" through anticipated technology development. In 2030 the new technology will give an additional 6.8 million barrels per day from old oil fields. Saudi Arabia's large reserve numbers are based on the assumption that their "oil recovery" will increase to 70%. Today, the global average lies at around 30%. Is what we see in Norway a new trend? We are approaching mid-summer and here in Uppsala it seems that the weekend will be cold and wet. In these times when global warming is being discussed one can only state that Sweden has not had a colder June in the past 50 years. At the moment it is 14ºC and the growth in my vegetable patch has stalled. For me, a summer day is when the temperature exceeds 25ºC. At the moment I long for summer! Next week it is time for the Tällberg Forum and I look forward to some days in Dalarna. ((The Tällberg Forum: The picture lowest down to the left is from last year when, together with Chief Jake Swamp from the Akwesasne Mohawk tribe, we discussed "What lifestyles without oil?" Blog June 2008.) The theme for this year's forum is "How on Earth can we live together within the planetary boundaries?". On Sunday (28 June) we have a workshop on energy system change in Africa. Before I report on the activities at the Tällberg Forum it will be time for the mid-summer break and I wish you all Happy Mid-summer! (Swedish) Dataflödet på internet är enormt och den rännil som letar sig fram till min elektroniska brevlåda ökar ständigt. Det mesta är skräppost, men det finns hela tiden något som är relevant och några brev som kräver svar. Summan av detta flöde ökar också och är på väg att nå taket. Att undersöka listan med spampost har för länge sedan passerats och jag kan bara beklaga att det inte är fler som fastnar där. Vi närmar oss semestertider och frågan blir om man kan stänga brevlådan eller inte. Ur gårdagens flöde vill jag plocka fram ett meddelande av intresse och det är från The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD): The NPD will not award its IOR Prize for improved oil recovery for 2008. En viktig post i framtida oljeproduktion enligt IEA är ökad "oil recovery" genom ny förväntade teknik. År 2030 skall sådan ny teknik ge ytterligare 6.8 miljoner fat om dagen från gamla oljefält. Saudiarabiens stora reserver bygger på att man skall komma upp till 70% vad det gäller "oil recovery". Det globala medeltalet ligger idag runt 30%. Är det vi nu ser i Norge en ny trend? Vi närmar oss midsommar och här i Uppsala verkar det som om helgen kommer att bli kall och blöt. I dessa tider då global uppvärmning diskuteras är det bara att konstatera att Sverige inte har haft en kallare junimånad på 50 år. Just nu är det 14 grader och växtligheten i mitt grönsaksland går på tomgång. En sommardag är för mig en dag då temperaturen passerar 25 grader och just nu längtar jag efter sommaren. Nästa vecka är det Tällberg Forum och jag ser fram mot några dagar i Dalarna (Tällberg Forum: Bilden längst ner till vänster är från förra året då jag tillsammans med Chief Jake Swamp från stammen Akwesasne Mohawk diskuterade "What lifestyles without oil?" Blog June 2008.). Temat för årets forum är "How on earth can we live together within the planetary boundaries?" På söndag (28 juni) skall vi ha en workshop om energisystem förändringar i Afrika. Fram till det att det är dags att rapportera om aktiviteterna runt Tällberg blir det midsommar ledigt och jag önskar er alla en Glad Midsommar.

The Smart 2009 conference in Sydney

Six months ago, when I was invited to speak at the Smart 2009 conference, my knowledge of "Just in Time" logistics was fairly limited. Now an entire new window has been opened and I must confess that it is quite fascinating. We do teach something on logistics in our curricula called Energy Systems at Uppsala University but the question now is whether we need to increase the logistic part. The introductory speaker was Tim Costello and it was very nice to get to know him. His organisation World Vision does fantastic work and I hope that we will find a platform for future collaboration. He described the world as a being like a waterbed and those that have ever lain in a water bed together with someone will know what he means. Today's globalisation means that events such as the economic meltdown in the USA affect everyone on Earth in some way. There are many other questions that find themselves on the same bed. I will return to the waterbed later. Tim Costello thought that, during President Obama's brief time in his role, he has shown that he is the leader of the world. No one else can gather the world together towards the same goal. It is easy for me to agree with this because, since 26 January, I have often quoted President Obama's views on energy that he expressed on that day, "No single issue is as fundamental to our future as energy". Most others have other issues higher up on their agendas but we at Global Energy Systems share President Obama's opinion. Tim Costello's description of today's slavery was clear. He described the family father that is forced to loan money from his employer so that his family can eat and then must work his entire life to pay back the debt with extortionate interest. The debts of these wage slaves are inherited by their children and the entire family becomes wage slaves. This is a part of what we call globalisation. His organisation strives to give the world's children that work as slaves on e.g. cocoa plantations in Africa the possibility to go to school. According to World Vision there are today 12 million children that do not go to school because they are forced to work. Now it is time to take fair trade marking of produce seriously since the difference it would make for the price of our chocolate is minimal. He was critical of growing grain for biofuel. During the question time after his talk I asked him if he should not be critical of the enormous crop growing areas that are now being transformed into vineyards around the world. How much more food would France and other nations be able to produce otherwise? From a global perspective is it not more important to grow ethanol for our cars than to grow ethanol for our bodies? It was noticeable that he was not ready for that question and one of the reasons was, as he expressed it, that he occasionally took a glass of wine. Finally the answer came straight and clear -- wine growing should also be called into question. We live in a complex world and working to support every human's dignity should be more important for the world's leaders. Tim Costello is definitely a leader that the world needs. John Pattullo represented one of the sponsors of the conference. When I listened to his description of the flows for all the components that comprise a final manufactured product I was nearly speechless. This is usually described as efficiency. Efficiency is also the word on the lips of all politicians when they discuss the future. They want to produce the same number of products with less energy. In the systems described individuals seemed insignificant. Despite this, it is, of course, important that we learn to plan our future production to be as efficient as possible but we also need a way of measuring the human value of a product. Whether environmental certification or "humanity certification" should be most important is a question for the future. After a coffeebreak it was time for my presentation. The most difficult part of a presentation is the opening but Tim's waterbed gave me a wonderful opportunity, i.e., "Tim Costello described the world as a waterbed and I understand exactly what he means. When I arrived in Berkeley in California as a postdoc my wife and I rented a house that had a waterbed. When one of us got out of bed the other one experienced a wave surge. I remember also the poster that sat above the bed 'Too much sex makes you seasick' and that which I will now discuss, Peak Oil, has the potential to make the entire world seasick." My presentation is accessible on the homepage of ASPO Australia. It is a summary of our research focussing on transport. For Australia, transport by air is enormously important and our work on the future of aviation shook many. An article in the Sydney Morning Herald partially summarises my presentation. The comments that I received later during the conference show that it was a disturbing but appreciated presentation. Bruce Robertson is the spider in the web for the various ASPO groups in Australia. Together with ASPO members in Sydney he had planned a full program for me. Instead of the sponsored conference lunch I had a sandwich with Sydney's planning group for electric vehicles. For my part I did not even get a chance for a sandwich since time was very restricted. On our way back to the conference we stopped in Sydney's Chinatown for a working lunch. Later in the evening I had a meeting with ASPO Sydney. It began with an afternoon coffee at the hotel and then contined into the evening until a few of us ended the evening with a little food. It was very enjoyable and interesting to discuss Peak Oil with very engaged members. When I get time I will look a little more closely at some of their calculations. The late morning's specialist presentations on details in logistics were of less interest for me. Instead, Bruce and I took a longer stroll through Darling Harbour in Sydney to one of the stations of Sydney's monorail to then travel to a lunchtime presentation for a number of investors. The host for the event was Gordon Ramsay, Head of Energy Research for USB Securities Australia. The view from the boardroom high up in the finanical district's skyscrapers was grand. I had a few bites of a sandwich and then it was time for me to present the future to about 20 investors. From the questions I received it was evident that some of them had a certain amount of knowledge about Peak Oil but for others this reality was something new. It would have been interesting to be a little mouse that could sneak in and listen to the discussion that followed behind closed doors. Back to the conference and the closing talk by Australia's economics megastar Chris Richardson. His analysis of the reason for the finance market's crash was interesting. Primarily he discussed how households' wealth had grown before the crash. In Australia, the daily wage was less than what the "house had earned" [through increasing property value] during the same period. Of course, in the long run this virtual value could not increase without causing the market to crash. One reason for the increased value was that interest rates had decreased markedly and people were able to take out larger home loans. When it came to discussing Australia's future he considered that this was bright. One reason was that the slowdown in China was marginal and that Australia today relies on China's advancement. Australia is, among other things, a provider of raw materials such as coal, natural gas and iron ore. Another positive factor for Australia's future is its strong population growth. More people can buy more things. If Peak Oil was not an issue then his assertions could have been correct, but with Peak Oil just around the corner the situation can be completely different. He ended with a warning about global debt and the question was whether the world could afford any pensions in the future. One of his calculations showed that they can be forced to raise the pension age to 107 years. In future only productivity will count. During the question time I asked whether he thought that Peak Oil will affect the future. He knew about Peak Oil, but hoped that the peak year would be 2019 rather than 2009. Peak Oil would create problems in the future. In the evening ASPO Sydney had organised a public presentation but you can read more about that on their homepage (ASPO Austrailia). Friday began with the workshop I have mentioned, "Mitigating supply chain risk associated with oil supply and price volatility". The organisers wanted me to set the scene with a scenario where the world's oil production was reduced by 20%. In reality, this can only occur if the Persian Gulf is closed. An attack on Saudi Arabia's desulfurization towers could cause this. Richard Wilding then followed on with a rundown on how the flow of freight could be affected and then the delegates were divided up into groups that later reported on their opinions. The list was very long and it was an interesting workshop. Richard and I got on well together and we will see if anything comes of that in the future. One might think that nine presentations during five working days would be enough but Bruce had other ideas. Once again we took a trip to the finance district to make a presentation for another group of investors. This time they had interests in the oil industry. The host was Johan Hedström at Southern Cross Equities. Another impressive boardroom with a spectacular veiw over Sydney's harbour and Opera House. Johan came to Australia when his father was Sweden's Ambassador and, after his studies, he stayed on. It was fun to meet such a successful Swede. The lunch was pleasant and Bruce and I kept the presentation moving so that there was even time for a little food. The participants were investors in the oil and energy industy and it showed. The discussion was very much to the point. Imagine if the same clear-sightedness had existed among the politicians in Canberra! The evening ended privately with Bruce and his family. We concluded with a ferry ride on Sydney's harbour towards the Opera House that was illuminated with an artistic lighting display. When one summarises the journey that began in Geneva on 27 May and that then took me to Brazil and Australia it might sound to many like a fantastic holiday trip. Of coursse there were moments when one could enjoy different surroundings but I am, above all, grateful that the trip gave me the opportunity to meet wonderful people. I know already that my future research has been influenced and deepened by this. I have ideas for many Ph.D. projects -- now all I have to do is find financiers for this research that is of the greatest importance for our future. (Swedish) Då jag för ett halvår sedan blev inbjuden att tala på Smart 2009 var mina kunskaper om "Just in time" ganska begränsade. Nu har ett helt nytt fönster öppnats och jag måste erkänna att det är ganska fascinerande. Vi har en del logistikutbildning i vårt utbildningsprogram Energisystem vid Uppsala Universitet, men frågan är om det inte behövs mer. Inledningstalare var Tim Carstello och det var en mycket trevlig bekantskap. Hans organisation World Vision gör ett fantastiskt arbete och jag hoppas att vi skall finna en plattform för framtida samarbete.Han beskrev världen som en vattensäng och ni som någon gång har legat i en vattensäng tillsammans med någon förstår vad han medar. Dagens globalisering medför att händelser som den ekonomiska härdsmältan i USA påverkar alla på vår jord på något sätt. Det finns många andra frågor som befinner sig på samma säng. Jag skall återkomma till vattensängen. Tim Carstello menade att President Obama under den korta tid som han varit president visat att just han nu är världens ledare. Ingen annan kan samla världen mot samma mål. Då jag sedan den 26 januari citerat President Obama och hans åsikter om energi är det lätt att stämma in: "No single issue is as fundamental to our future as energy". De flesta har andra frågor högre upp på agendan men vi i Globala energisystem delar president Obamas åsikter. Tim Carstellos beskrivning av dagens slaveri var klar och tydlig. Han berättade om familjefadern som tvingades låna av sin ar betsgivare för att famlijen skulle få mat och sedan arbeta hela sitt liv för att betala tillbaka skulden med ockerränta. Skulden som dessa låneslavar har ärvs av barnen och hela familjen blir låneslavar. Detta är en del av det som vi kallar för globalisering. Hans organisation arbetar för att världens barn som arbetar som slavar på bl a kakaoplanteringar i Afrika skall få möjlighet att gå i skola. Idag är det enligt World Vision 12 miljoner barn som inte går i skolan för att de tvingas att arbeta. Merkostnaden för vår chokladbit är minimal och nu är det dags att ta rättvisemärkningen på allvar. Han var kritisk till att man odlade grödor till biobränslen. Under frågestunden frågade jag om han inte borde vara kritisk till de enorma arealer som nu förvandlas till vinplanteringar runt om i världen. Hur mycket mer mat skulle inte Frankrike och andra länder kunna producera. I ett globalt perspektiv är det förmodligen viktigare att odla etanol för våra bilar än att odla etanol för våra kroppar. Det märktes att han inte var beredd på frågan och en av anledningarna var som han uttryckte det att han då och då tog sig ett glas vin. Till slut kom svaret klart och tydligt, vinodling borde också ifrågasättas. Vi lever i en komplex värld och att arbeta för allas människovärde borde vara viktigare för världens ledare. Tim Carstello är definitivt en ledare som världen behöver. John Pattullo representerade en av sponsorerna till konferensen och då man lyssnade till hans beskrivning av flödet för alla komponenter som ingår i en slutprodukt blir man nästan stum. Effektivitet är den normala benämningen. Det är denna effektivitet som alla politiker har på sina läppar då man diskuterar framtiden. Att producera lika många enheter med mindre energi. I de system som beskrevs fanns det inte så stort utrymme för den lilla människan. Trots detta är det naturligtvis viktigt att vi lär oss att planera vår framtida produktion så smidigt som möjligt, men vi måste nog i framtiden också ha ett mått på en varas humanvärde. Om miljömärkning eller humanmärkning skall vara viktigast är en fråga för framtiden? Efter kaffepaus var det så dags för mitt föredrag. Svåraste delen på ett föredrag är inledningen, men Tims vattensäng gav mig en fantastisk möjlighet: Tim Carstello beskrev världen som en vattensäng och jag förstår precis vad han menar. Då jag kom till Berkeley i Kalifornien som postdoc hyrde min fru och jag ett hus som hade en vattensäng och då någon av oss gick upp från sängen blev det lite vågskvalp för den andre. Jag mins också den poster som satt ovanför sängen "Too much sex makes you seasick", och det jag nu skall diskutera, Peak Oil, har potential för att göra hela världen sjösjuk. Mitt föredrag finns tillgängligt på hemsidan för ASPO Australien och det är en sammanfattning av vår forskning då man placerar transporter i fokus. För Australien med sitt läge är flygtransporter enormt viktiga och vårt arbete om framtidens flyg skakade om många. En artikel i Sydney Morning Herald sammanfasttar delvis mitt föredrag. De kommentarer som jag fått senare under konferensen visar att det var ett omskakande uppskattat föredrag. Bruce Robertson är spindeln i nätet för de olika ASPO grupper i Australien. Tillsammans med ASPO- medlemmar i Sydney hade han planerat ett fullt program för mig. Istället för den sponsrade konferenslunchen blev det en smörgås med Sydneys planeringsgrupp för elektriska bilar. För min del blev det inte ens en smörgås eftersom tiden var mycket knapp och en lunch i Sydneys Chinatown blev istället dagens lunch. Senare på eftermiddagen var det ett öppet möte med ASPO Sydney. Det började med eftermiddagskaffe på ett av hotellen och fortsatte fram mot kvällen och till sist avslutade några av oss kvällen med lite mat. Mycket trevligt och intressant att få diskutera Peak Oil med mycket engagerade medlemmar. Då jag får tid skall jag titta lite närmare på en del av deras beräkningar. Torsdagen inleddes med en frukostföreläsning av professor Richard Wilding från Cranfield University i Storbritannien. Hans forskning i "Supply Chain Risk Management" v ar för mig ett helt nytt forskningsområde. Hans beskrivning av händelser kan sammanfattas med ordspråket "liten tuva stjälper ofta stort lass". Man inser hur sårbara dagens globala försörjningsflöden är för industrin. På fredagen höll Richard och jag en workshop där vi diskutera hur Peak Oil kommer att påverka framtidens globala industri. Richard lyssnade på mitt föredrag och vi inser båda att världen har en framtid som kräver planering "Outside todays box". Förmiddagens specialistföredrag om detaljer i logistik var av mindre intresse för mig. Istället tog Bruce och jag en länger promenad genom Darling Harbur i Sydney mot en av stationerna till Sydneys Monoray för en resa till gagens lunchföredrag för ett antal investerare. Värd för tillställningen var Gordon Ramsay, Head of Energy Research för USB Securities Australia. Utsikten från styrelserummet högt upp i ett av finasdistriktets skyskrapor var storslagen. Några bett på en smörgås och sedan var det dags för mig att presentera framtiden för ca 20 investerare. Av frågorna framgick det att några hade viss kunskap om Peak Oil men för andra var denna verklighet en nyhet. Det skulle vara intressant att vara en liten mus som kunde smyga in och lyssna till efterföljande diskussioner bakom stängda dörrar. Tillbaka till konferensen och avslutningen med Australiens megastjärna vad det gäller ekonomi, Chris Richardson. Hans analys av orsaken till finansmarknadens haveri var intressant. Framförallt diskuterade han hur hushållens förmögenhet hade ökat tiden innan kraschen. I Australien var inkomsterna under dagen mindre än vad "huset hade tjänat" under samma tid. Självfallet kan man inte i längden öka detta virtuella värde utan att marknaden havererar. En anledning till det ökade värdet var att räntan sjönk markant och man fick råd med större lån. Vad det gäller Australiens framtid ansåg han att den var ljus. En anledning var att inbromsningen i Kina var marginell och att Australien idag är beroende av Kinas framgångar. Man är bland annat råvaruleverantörer, kol, naturgas och järnmalm. En annan positiv faktor för Australiens framtid är den kraftiga befolkningsökningen. Fler personer kan handla mer. Om Peak Oil hade varit en ickefråga kan påståendet vara riktigt, men med Peak Oil runt hörnet kan det vara något helt annat. Han varnade slutligen för den globala skulden och frågan var om världen hade råd med några pensioner i framtiden. En av hans beräkningar visade att man kan vara tvungen att höja pensionsåldern till 107 år. I framtiden är det bara produktivitet som räknas. Under frågestunden ställde jag frågan om han trodde att Peak Oil skulle påverka framtiden. Han kände till Peak Oil, men hoppades att peakåret snarare var 2019 än 2009. Peak Oil skulle medföra problem i framtiden. På kvällen hade ASPO Sydney ordnat ett offentligt föredrag men mer om det på deras hemsida (ASPO Austrailia). Fredagen började med nämnda workshop: "Mitigating supply chain risk associated with oil supply and price volatility". Arrangörerna ville att jag skulle inleda med ett scenario där världens oljeproduktion minskat med 20%. I verkligheten kan detta bara ske om produktionen från Persiska viken stängs. En attack på Saudiarabiens avsvavlingstorn kan åstadkomma detta. Richard Wilding forrtsatte sedan med en genomgång hur varuflöden kan påverkas och deltagarna delades upp i grupper som sedan fick redovisa sina synpunkter. Listan blev mycket lång och det var en intressant workshop. Richard och jag trivdes bra tillsammans och vi får se vad det blir i framtiden. Man kan tycka att nio föredrag under 5 arbetsdagar borde vara tillräckligt, men Bruce var av annan uppfattning. Det blev på nytt en resa till finansdistrikter och föredrag för nya investerare. Denna gång med intresse i oljeindustrin. Värd var Johan Hedström på Southern Cross Equities. Ett nytt fantastiskt styrelserum med en fantastisk utsikt över Sydneys hamn och operahuset. Johan kom till Australien då hans far var svensk ambassadör och efter studierna blev han kvar. Kul att träffa en svensk i karriären. Lunchen var förträflig och Bruce och jag varvade vid presentationen så att det även blev tid för lite mat. Deltagarna var investerare inom olje- och energiindustrin och det märkts. Mycket saklig diskussion. Tänk om samma klarsynthet hade funnits bland politikerna i Canberra. Kvällen avslutades privat med Bruce och hans familj och vi avslutade med en färjtur genom Sydneys hamn mot operahuset, som för kvällen var konstnärligt dekorerat med ett ljusspel. Då man summerar den resa som började i Genève den 27 maj och som sedan tog mig till Brasilien och Australien så kan det för många uppfattas som en fantastisk semesterresa. Visst finns det minuter då man kan njuta av andra miljöer men jag är framförallt tacksam för att resan gett mig möjligheter att träffa fantastiska personer och jag vet redan nu att min framtida forskning kommer att påverkas och fördjupas. Det finns idéer för flera doktorandprojekt, nu är det bara att hitta finansiärer för forskning som är av största betydelse för vår framtid.

Canberra and the Senate public hearing

Bruce Robinson will write about this, but you can see the official announcement hear.

OilWatch

Divide and rule: the politics of climate change negotiations

The stakes Download document in PDF (doc/declaracion/decla2009_divideandrule_ingl.pdf) The IPCC has confirmed that the Earth has a limited capacity to absorb greenhouse gas emissions (i.e. a limited “emission or carbon budget”). Senior economists have confirmed that this budget could be worth in excess of one trillion US dollars annually.i Negotiations over a global goal and mitigation commitments are addressing how to share this limited atmospheric resource between rich and poor nations. At stake in the climate negotiations, therefore, is among the largest divisions of wealth and resources in modern history. Annex I countries have already used more than their fair share of this budget, and have long understood what’s at stake in the negotiations. They seek to continue their over-use of a shared resource by securing substantial “assigned amounts” of emissions based on their high historical levels, while locking the South into considerably lower and declining per-capita levels. Non-Annex I countries are rapidly beginning to understand the implications of an unjust distribution of the remaining atmospheric space, and of the financing and technology required to live well within its constraints. A number of countries have called for more equitable approaches taking into account historical responsibility, an equitable allocation of a shared atmospheric resource, per-capita accumulative emission levels, and the climate debt owed by developed countries to developing countries for their over-use of shared atmospheric space (“emissions debt”) and for the devastating consequences of climate change on developing countries (“adaptation debt”).

Nigeria: No More Oil Blocks! Let’s leave the oil under the Ground

As the Niger Delta boils and as Nigeria looks towards a bleak future with diminished oil revenues, the oil corporations operating in Nigeria continue to garner obscene profits. This happens because the corporations are not paying for environmental costs of their operations and because ecological debts go unattended to. Local communities have shouldered the burdens while the corporations laugh all the way to the banks secured by their opaque Joint Venture agreements. The trend of profits made by oil companies over the past couple of years are very telling. These companies reap profits in the face of whatever woes the world is confronted with.

Radical new agenda needed to achieve climate justice

Poznan statement from the Climate Justice Now! coalition12 December 2008 Members of Climate Justice Now! – a worldwide alliance of more than 160 organisations -- have been in Poznan for the past two weeks closely following developments in the UN climate negotiations.This statement is our assessment of the Conference of Parties (COP) 14, and articulates our principles for achieving climate justice.

Peak-oil debunked

407. NATE HAGENS PIMPS RACIST PUBLICATION

Today, the Oil Drum is featuring an article by pseudo-scientist Richard "worldwide permanent electrical blackouts by 2007" Duncan, and the intro by Nate Hagens begins like this:This is a guest posting of Richard Duncan's latest "Olduvai" update, which is also featured in the Summer 2009 issue of The Social Contract Quarterly www.thesocialcontract.com. The essay explores energy use and population and as with previous updates arrives at some rather grim conclusions.The uninitiated may not know what is going on here, so let me explain. The "Social Contract Quarterly" is not a scientific journal. It's a rag published and edited by overt white supremacists.Let me be clear:The Oil Drum, an ostensibly scientific and reality-based website, is directing its readers to a white supremacist publication and website.Here's the Southern Poverty Law Center on "The Social Contract":The Social Contract PressPetoskey, Mich.www.tscpress.comWith a strong focus on immigration, The Social Contract Press (TSCP) sells books from its on-line bookstore and publishes a quarterly journal, The Social Contract. TCSP says it favors lowering immigration levels merely "to reduce the rate of American's population growth, protect jobs, preserve the environment, and foster assimilation."But it publishes a number of racist works, including a reprint of the "gripping" 1973 book, The Camp of the Saints (see Fear and Fantasy), a French racist fantasy novel about the obliteration of Western civilization by dark-skinned hordes from India. The novel, like the race war fantasy The Turner Diaries, has become a key screed for American white supremacists.The Social Contract is edited by Wayne Lutton, who recently the joined the editorial advisory board of the newspaper of the white supremacist Council of Conservative Citizens (CCC).At a 1997 CCC conference, Lutton said Third Worlders "have declared racial demographic war against us. ... Why are their populations exploding? Because ... our people have exported medical technology and we feed them."Had we left them alone, many of them would be going extinct today."The Social Contract has published articles by James Lubinskas of the racist American Renaissance magazine; Brent Nelson, who like Lutton is on the advisory board for the CCC's periodical, and Sam Francis, current editor of the CCC tabloid.John H. Tanton, publisher of The Social Contract Press and founder of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, was instrumental in a 1996 effort to add an anti-immigration plank to the Sierra Club platform, a move that nearly split the environmental group permanently.To editor Lutton, America essentially is a white man's country. "We are the real Americans," he declared in 1997, "not the Hmong, not Latinos, not the Siberian-Americans. ... As far as the future, the handwriting is on the screen. The Camp of the Saints is coming our way."SourceJohn H. Tanton, publisher of the "The Social Contract" has said that unless U.S. borders are sealed, America will be overrun by people "defecating and creating garbage and looking for jobs."SourceHere's a photo of Wayne Lutton Ph.D., editor of "The Social Contract" (2nd from right), at a meeting of white supremacists on June 11, 2004. Note the confederate flag in the foreground:by JD

406. ORLOV NYC EVENT CANCELED

Camrade Orlov has now posted a mea culpa for his recent numerical blunder.(BTW, my recent expose DMITRY ORLOV CONCEDES HE'S AN IDIOT is now on the front page of Google for "Dmitry Orlov". As usual, Peak Oil Debunked powers through the seas of doomer bullshit, straight to the top of the charts.)Reading the comments to that article, I was amused to see that Dmitry had a presentation (tickets: $20-30) scheduled in NYC for July 11, 2009, but it was cancelled due to poor ticket sales. Apparently only 18 people in the entire NY metropolitan area (population 8.3 million +) expressed any interest. LOLFor reference, here's the comments:"I just found out that the event in NY is cancelled. A couple of days ago I called Local Energy Solutions to find out why my check was not cashed, and I've got a reply that the event might be postponed or cancelled because there was not enough response.""Wow. Only 18 people bought tickets for the talk? I was expecting "sold out" and hundreds of people bustling in an auditorium, not "cancelled".""Can't believe the NY event is off !"Clearly the event was nuked due to pathetic turn out. True blue americans can smell a rat a mile away.by JD

405. SUPPLY CRUNCH RECEDES

For the last few months the peak oilers have been terrorizing the newbies with the "looming supply crunch" due to lack of investment. Much of this was based on comments earlier this year by the IEA:"Currently the demand is very low due to the very bad economic situation," [Nobuo Tanaka, the IEA's executive director] said. "But when the economy starts growing and recovery comes again in 2010 and onward, we may have another serious supply crunch if capital investment is not coming." However, this one has now bitten the bag like so many other peak oil scares over the years:IEA sees global oil supply crunch risk recedeJun 29 2009The world may escape an oil supply crisis for the next five years because a slow recovery from the economic downturn would hold down growth of demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday.Yet another case where the peak oilers relentlessly hype an anticipated threat, and provide no reporting at all when the threat evaporates.And in related news, the IEA just cut 3 million barrels per day for demand for the next four years: So Much for Chinese Demand (hat tip to Eric J. Fox)by JD

404. 100 YEARS OF NATURAL GAS

Rigzone reports some very important news:The amount of natural gas available for production in the United States has soared 58% in the past four years, driven by a drilling boom and the discovery of huge new gas fields in Texas, Louisiana and Pennsylvania, a new study says. The report, due to be released Thursday by the nonprofit Potential Gas Committee, concludes the U.S. has more than 2,000 trillion cubic feet of natural gas still in the ground, or nearly a century's worth of production at current rates. That's a 35.4% jump over the committee's last estimate, in 2007, of 1,532 trillion cubic feet, the biggest increase in the committee's 44-year history.Boone Pickens puts that volume in perspective:The 2,074 trillion cubic feet of domestic natural gas reserves cited in the study is the equivalent of nearly 350 billion barrels of oil, about the same as Saudi Arabia's oil reserves.For those who aren't up on the history: this is a case where the "peak oil community" has egg on its face about an inch thick. In Aug. 2003, Matt Simmons stated that natural gas armageddon for the US was a certainty within 2 years. Now, here we are 4 years later, swimming in veritable seas of the shit. Read the history, folks. The man is a stooge.While we're at it, let's also recall that the entire "peak oil community" bought into the "natural gas crisis" hook line and sinker:Matt Simmons, Dale Allen Pfeiffer, mobjectivist, Julian Darley, Culture Change, dieoff.org, LATOC, Post Carbon Institute, Energy Bulletin, The Oil Drum etc. etc.And the crisis never came. In fact, the result was exactly the opposite of that predicted.This huge surge in NG supplies is very important, and very good news. As Robert Rapier says: "It also appears that we have enough natural gas available that civilization isn't going to end any time soon due to lack of energy supplies."by JD

403. DMITRY ORLOV CONCEDES HE'S AN IDIOT

Still on vacation, but I couldn't resist this one. A couple of days ago, Dmitry Orlov posted a new presentation on his website, well-larded with his usual asinine assertions about the imminent end of industrial civilization etc. etc.The funny part is that much of it is based on this concept:François Cellier has recently published an analysis in which he shows that at roughly $600/bbl the entire world's GDP would be required to pay for oil, leaving no money for putting it to any sort of interesting use. At that price level, we can't even afford to take delivery of it. In fact, at that price level, we can't even afford to pump it out of the ground, because the tool pushers, roughnecks and roustabouts that make oil rigs work don't drink the oil, and there would no longer be room in the budget for beer.And so, the actual limiting price, beyond which no economic activity is possible, is certainly a lot lower, and last summer we seem to have experimentally established that to be around $150/bbl. which is something like 25% of global GDP.Scary stuff, except the figures are totally bogus.$150 oil would not constitute 25% of the world's GDP.The world consumed 84 million barrels/day in 2008 (from the BP statistical review 2009). At $150 per barrel, that comes to $12.6 billion a day, or $4.6 trillion per year.The CIA Factbook 2009 gives world GDP for 2008 as $69.49 trillion.Therefore sustained $150 oil would only account for 4.6/69.49 = 6.6% of world GDP, not 25% as Orlov fraudulently states.Similary, if oil rose to $600 a barrel, that would cost roughly $50 billion/day, or $18.25 trillion per year.Clearly $600 oil cannot consume the entire world's GDP because$18.25 trillion < $69.49 trillionIt would take something a little closer to $2240 per barrel to consume the world's GDP.*****You can see where Orlov screwed up if you compare his comment with the original analysis by Cellier. Here's the quote from Orlov: François Cellier has recently published an analysis in which he shows that at roughly $600/bbl the entire world's GDP would be required to pay for oil, leaving no money for putting it to any sort of interesting use.Here's the source quote from Cellier:This means that, if ever the price of energy should rise to a level of $0.37/kWh, we would spend our entire GDP just on the procurement of energy. This corresponds to an oil price of $590/barrel.Notice the little switcheroo there boys and girls?The really funny part is that he delivered this presentation at some cheesy doomer jamboree called The New Emergency Conference and NOT ONE PERSON bothered to check his figures. Then he posted the presentation on his blog, and it was commented on by more than 40 fawning idiots, and NO ONE bothered to check his figures. No critical thought was anywhere to be seen. Nothing but wall-to-wall brown-nosing: "Fabulous, Dmitry." "What an absolutely amazing and thoughtful essay." "Marvelous" "Brilliant!"...I submitted a comment pointing out Orlov's mistake on his blog. However, Orlov heavily moderates the blog, and buried the comment by not posting it. Apparently the facts are not welcome at ClubOrlov.This incident really speaks volumes about sycophancy and gullibility in the peak oil community.2009/6/20 update:Orlov has now formally conceded that yours truly gutted him like a fish, and his figures are complete bullshit (Read down in the comments. Orlov calls himself "kollapsnik". Hat tip to LoneSnark for smoking him out.):Orlov:Some people have pointed out that I misquoted François Cellier:"François Cellier has recently published an analysis in which he shows that at roughly $600/bbl the entire world's GDP would be required to pay for oil..."Here's the analysis: http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5388#morePlease substitute "energy" for "oil" and $590 for $600.Orlov:I said "oil" whereas I should have said "energy". [...] I don't care about arithmetic very much at all.2009/7/2 update:Another (more formal) apology from Kamrade Orlov.Reading the comments to the blog article, I was amused to see that Dmitry had a presentation (tickets: $20-30) scheduled in NYC for July 11, 2009, but it was cancelled due to lack of interest. Apparently only 18 people in the entire 5-borough area expressed any interest. LOLby JD

Transition Culture

Responding to Sharon Astyk on Permaculture and Transition

Sharon Astyk is one of the bloggers I most admire, one of the most insightful and incredibly prolific writers out there.  It was fascinating therefore to read the two articles she recently posted, Permaculture Future Part One and Part Two.  Her basic argument is that permaculture and Transition are, as we head into the Long [...]

Transition Town Tooting Win Prestigious Grant

Roving Transition reporter and publisher of Transition Network News Mike Grenville sent the following report from an awards event in London at which Transition Town Tooting found out that they had been one of four projects selected from 178 applications to recieve funding for projects that bring art and responses to climate change together.  The [...]

Making my Questionnaire Available… perhaps you might like to use it too?

Several people have been in touch to ask whether it is possible to see the original questionnaire that I used to do the surveys from which the initial findings were presented here at Transition Culture the other day.  You can download a pdf. of the questionnaire here.  It was based, in part on questions from [...]

What Employment Opportunities Arise from Embracing Transition?

As part of the Totnes EDAP, we are creating this table (below), by way of illustrating the wealth of new employment possibilities that could be created in a community that seriously embraces the potential of Transition. There will of course be hundreds of things we have neglected to include. In the light [...]

Skills, Resilience and Awareness? Initial Findings from my Survey of Totnes…

As part of the PhD that I am still pretending to be doing, I have done a survey of around 215 households in Totnes and Dartington. I have just, through my rudimentary knowledge of SPSS ( a statistical analysis package), done an initial analysis of the data, and the findings are very interesting. [...]

Postcarbon Cities

Getting Out From Behind the Wheel

The New York Times' "Green Inc." blog explores reactions to a previous article on the Vauban car-free development in Freiburg, Germany. Post Carbon Cities author Daniel Lerch is quoted in this article.

Small, Green and Good: The role of neglected cities in a sustainable future

Smaller cities have a distinctive and vital role to play in the work of the new century: they will be critical in the move to local agriculture and the development of renewable energy industries. Their underused or vacant industrial space and surrounding tracts of farmland make them ideal sites for sustainable land-use policies, or "smart growth." (This article quotes Post Carbon Cities author Daniel Lerch.)

Post Carbon Cities ending daily news posts

As of 10 January 2009 we are no longer collecting news articles on the Post Carbon Cities website. When we started this service two years ago, news and information on city responses to energy and climate uncertainty was hard to come by. Climate change and fossil fuel depletion have since become widely recognized concerns among local decision-makers and planners, so the time has come to shift our efforts elsewhere. Post Carbon Institute continues to do research on how local governments can best respond to and prepare for energy and climate uncertainty. Our database of local government actions will remain on the site and continue to be updated, as will our accompanying resource database of relevant resolutions and reports. If you'd like to keep following the news we find interesting, you can visit or subscribe to our feed on the bookmark-sharing site del.icio.us. Our News Archives will remain online for a few more months. Daniel Lerch, author of Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty, will continue blogging and posting articles on the Post Carbon Institute website. We hope our work at Post Carbon Institute continues to be useful to you. Please send your questions, concerns and suggestions to us using the contact form.

Sydney directs its development upward

Sydney's plans for future development are in the direction of dense, transit-accessible neighborhoods instead of traditional sprawling suburbs. This development pattern is expected to save the city hundreds of millions of dollars in infrastructure, transport, health and greenhouse gases.

Transit: Long-scorned, key to metros' future?

The MTA's new report, "Sustainability and the MTA," outlines a transit program for the New York metro region that could well be applied to other metro regions.

Relocalization Network

Regional Localization Networking Conference 2007 -May 18-20

Planetary Permaculture Directory

Six Republican House Members Urge Immediate U.S. Response to a Looming Energy Crisis: Global Peak Oil

Listserve - willits@postcarbon.org

Listserve - scv@postcarbon.org

Surviving Peak Oil

Easing the transition, simply stated for we with limited means

by Robert J. Gregory People of limited means, and that includes me, can shift from today’s world into the future by taking a few steps that will lead, almost inevitably, further along the track towards self-sustainability, happiness, and meaningfulness. Although we can’t be sure about how our future will turn out, we can be certain that we must try our very best to act in the most appropriate ways. Otherwise, catastrophe will occur. Some simple steps are outlined below. 1) Begin a garden. Gardens are places where you can grow some of your own food and, at the same time, provide yourself and your family with enormous opportunities to appreciate nature and the environment, participate in the processes of growth and harvest, gain real tangible skills and abilities, build up supplies and resources, provide fresh produce for gifts or trade with others, and much more. Gardens, if you think about it, help a person or family withdraw their allegiance and dependence on the food stores and global corporations that control food by creating local, home-grown, and better tasting food at far lower costs. Gardens can benefit the soil and preserve local seed stock, create wildlife havens, and add to the diversity and interest in our communities. Local gardens mean transportation costs are minimized, and therefore precious gas and oil use is reduced. Best of all, gardening provides a living model about how to withdraw yourself and your family from unnecessary and unneeded dependence on “the system”, whether food, other products and services, and/or emotional links and ties created by habits. 2) Do away with non-essentials that do not contribute to happiness and well-being. We can do without expensive lawns that have to be mowed every week or so, SUV’s and fancy automobiles that use enormous amounts of gas and oil, junk food that costs a lot, tastes bad and contributes to ill health, television that blots out or distorts our minds and takes away time and energy and health, expensive church or other buildings that are used for only an hour or two per week, tobacco that destroys lungs and lives, and alcohol that poisons and wastes brain power, sensibility, precious time, energy, money and relationships. 3) Learn skills and get “really” educated. Skills such as growing and drying food, making soap, fixing things and carrying out home repairs, simple plumbing, creating your own clothes, and similar skills are always valuable, for all people. With the local library, the Internet, and local discussion groups, it is possible to learn about history, literature, philosophy, science, alternative ways to live, different languages, financial self-management, and much more. The opportunities are present, the challenges are many, and the time is here and now. 4) Call on leaders--or so-called leaders--to be honest, responsible and accountable to the needs and wishes of all the people they represent. Monitor, track, and study what local and global leaders say, look at the decisions they make, and then examine what they actually do. Inform and discuss their decisions and actions with your relatives, friends, work mates, neighborhood and other groups, and give wholehearted, enthusiastic support to those leaders who do the right things. Withdraw your support from those who are not acting in the best interests of all, and the future. Further, publicize exactly why you support or oppose particular leaders and their decisions, to inform as many people as you can. 5) Enjoy safe sex for relationships, recreation, affection, and love. Avoid sex for procreation, as we have way too many people on Planet Earth now. Intelligent and aware scientists and researchers tell us that the Earth can support, in a sustainable and reasonable manner, perhaps one billion people. Right now, we have well over six billion, which is five billion too many. We do not need more people, we do need more quality of life for the people we have. 6) Appreciate, or at the least acknowledge and accept, death and mortality. Yes, we feel sad, bad, and angry when a loved one dies, or when famine, war, and poverty kill off large numbers of humans anywhere in the world. But, let us recognize that death is natural, and further, let us recognize that we have well over six billion people on a planet that can sustain probably only one billion. Our attitudes toward death should remain sensitive, caring and loving, but we also need to become more realistic and mature about death, whether by abortion, euthanasia, accidents, illness, old age or the many other causes. 7) Know that these steps are a small but important beginning, and the opportunities are many for social entrepreneurs, innovations, and plenty of hard work. Changing lifestyles, enriching lives, making a positive difference, working with neighbors and friends, helping your own family, reorienting corporations and businesses, building new and better communities, engaging with the politicians and political systems; why, think about it! The possibilities of what can be are virtually endless. Now, get out there and get started!

A Matter of Survival

Dale Allen Pfeiffer “Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish and he will never go hungry.” Introduction Recently, my daughter and I saw a man on the side of the road holding a sign on which was scrawled: “Homeless. Will work for food. God bless.” While this is not an unusual sight in Flint, what struck me in this particular case was that this man did not appear at all disabled. He appeared to be a very able young man who had simply fallen upon hard times. After doing what we could for the young man, my daughter and I continued on our way, albeit now worried about the man's welfare and wishing we could have done more for him. I reflected on the thought that all too soon we may see many more people like this young man, fallen victim to the hard times of economic collapse and peak oil. These people will need help, and while a hand-out may help a little, it would be much better to arm them with a little survival knowledge which will help them to find the necessities of survival. While I in no way wish to encourage the rape of our remaining wilderness, I do feel that the following material should be presented to allow those in desperate straits some options for their survival. The material presented here is representative of a whole school of such knowledge and skills, essential to living in nature, which is all but forgotten in our modern world. The knowledge presented here is freeing and empowering, and it is my hope that somebody may benefit from it. Nowhere is it more apt than in discussions of homelessness and starvation. In the United States, federal and state governments own large portions of land and still other privately owned patches are kept idle for economic reasons. A patch of vacant land a mile square could easily support three industrious homeless people. I emphasis that any who do take this suggestion should be very careful not to disturb the land where they are dwelling. The goal should be to swim through the wilderness without ever making a ripple. The information which I am presenting here is but a sampling of that body of knowledge pertaining to free existence in nature which vanished from human consciousness too quickly after we stepped away from nature, knowledge so vital to our relationship with nature. This information should be general among all people. Yet, this knowledge is freedom, and freedom holds its own price. More than anything, wilderness survival is about attitude. You have to look past the many discomforts to discover what is rare and beautiful, in nature and within yourself. Know that nature will never throw anything at you which you can not handle if you deal with it directly. But if you look for disaster, you will surely find it. Embrace the experience and you might be surprised to find that life is embracing you. Never over-harvest any plant or animal. Instead of taking all of something from one area, take a little from several areas. Always leave enough for others. Take only what you need, no more nor less. Always be grateful for any food which you may find, and show your gratitude as is appropriate. Feel your full responsibility for that which you feed upon, and understand that this responsibility is the price of freedom. The path will not be easy but, for those who can find it, not without reward. Aside from the attitude, there are four issues to address in wilderness survival, ranked in order of importance: shelter, water, fire and food. Though weighty tomes could be devoted to each of these subjects, the essentials can be recorded in a few short paragraphs. Shelter This is as simple as piling leaves over sticks, which is precisely that of which the simplest form of shelter consists. Find a dead log wedged between a couple of other trees so that it angles gently down to the base. Or look for a fallen tree whose limbs or root ball afford a potential frame. Perhaps a dry patch beneath the under bows of some standing tree might provide a habitable space. Potential shelter sites should be no problem, once you know what you are looking for. You will need an area at least big enough to allow you to sleep comfortably. On the other hand, the larger the area, the harder it will be to heat. If possible, plan to have the opening face east or southeast, never northwest (of course this depends on location and topography). Aside from this, you must consider various factors about the location: a dry, well-drained area, protected from weather and natural hazards, southern exposure, fire safety, abundance of materials and comfort. You will also want to keep an eye open for such things as poison ivy and ant nests. Once you have chosen an adequate location and improvised a frame, that frame should be ribbed with sticks and branches, cross-woven for strength. Some people use pine boughs for this part of the structure. Over the frame is then deposited leaf litter to a thickness of at least an arm's length. You will have to work with this over the course of time to seal leaks and drafts. Cork it up with a ball of leaf litter and you will be sealed in tight. Beyond these basics, debris shelters can be as simple or as complex as you desire. Properly built, these structures can be as warm and cozy as any heated bedroom. These huts can be easily dismantled and all the materials redistributed so that there is little evidence that the area was ever disturbed. In the summer they can consist of little more than the frame or they can be thatched with a little effort and ingenuity. At most, a debris shelter should never be used for more than a season. The ideal is to have three or four debris huts scattered over a territory among which the homesteader can then shift as (s)he hunts and forages. For long term residence, you had probably better look into putting up log walls, but if you are squatting an area, it had better be remote enough to prevent your cabin from being discovered. Remember, the esthetic path is that which leaves no trail. Water Don't ever take the chance. Between parasitic infestation and manmade pollutants, the odds that your source is tainted are just too great. Fresh water should always be filtered and boiled. Boil for twenty minutes (add five minutes for every thousand feet of elevation). If water tastes dead after this, it can be resuscitated by pouring it back and forth through the air between two containers. Vessels can be placed out to catch rain, which can be drank directly from the containers. In the winter, water is as easy as melting snow or ice. Be careful eating snow or ice because the melting draws a lot of energy from your reserve. And remember, filtering and boiling may take care of dirt and microbes, but chemical pollutants may still be present and can even be concentrated by boiling. Try to be choosy about your watering sites, and always look upstream. The only way you can ever be sure about water is by using a solar still. Dig a hole in the ground about three feet deep and wide enough to let in the sun, and place a can in the middle. Then cover the hole with a clear sheet of plastic, secured around the edge with the dirt from the hole. Lastly, place a rock in the middle of the plastic, pulling it down over the open can. Then go about your daily business and check the can later. You will have to move the still every five days or so, as the area you are tapping dries out. Do not worry, the water you consume in this method will make no impression on the area water table or ecology, and the result is pure, sun-distilled water. At this point, I wish to discuss trash and sewage. First, in regards to trash, not only does it breed disease, it also attracts animals. If that is your desire, then I suggest you lay your bait some distance from your home. All unrecyclable trash should be buried with sewage in latrines dug at some reasonable distance from camp, no less than one hundred feet from any water source. No trash or sewage should ever be poured into open water or tossed into sinkholes or swamps - particularly manmade chemicals - as this will only serve to compromise the ground water throughout the area. Latrine pits should always be filled back in once their operation is complete. Fire Always be careful with fire. Treat it with full respect but never let it out of your control. Pick a special spot for your fire where it cannot consume anything other than what you feed it. Dig a fire pit and clear the area around the fire. Line your fire pit with a circle of dirt or rocks (beware rocks found in streams or along lakes; they may explode when heated). Be careful to extinguish the fire when you are done with it. Keep sufficient water handy to douse the flame. Don't build a camp fire when you need a cooking fire. For a cooking fire, you need hard wood: oak, maple, hickory in sticks and branches never much bigger than kindling. Feed the fire copiously and then let it burn down into a nice hot bed of coals. You can place rocks in the coals (see the warning above) if you don't want to cook directly on the burning embers. If you lack metal cooking utensils, you can cook in wood, hide or clay vessels by dropping heated rocks in the vessel. If you have access to a variety of stones (and most old farmland has a ridge of stones marking property lines) you can even build a stove. The Bow Drill The easiest way of making a fire with natural materials is by use of the fire bow drill. This technique takes practice, but do not give up in frustration. Like riding a bike: once you have it, you will never forget. The bow drill has four parts, the spindle, the fireboard, the handle, and the bow. The spindle and fireboard should always be made out of the same sort of wood (similar hardness is the key factor here). The wood should be dry but not rotten and should be of medium hardness. Cottonwood, willow, aspen, sassafras, sycamore, and poplar are best. Avoid hard woods like oak and hickory, as well as soft woods like pine. This being said, any wood can be used in a pinch, providing that it is dry. The spindle should be a smooth cylinder about an inch thick and eight inches long. You will find that the straighter the spindle, the better. Taper both ends to blunt points. The fireboard should be about half an inch thick, a foot long, and at least twice as wide as the spindle. The handle must fit comfortably in your palm. It will hold the drill in place while you apply the bow. The handle can be made of hard wood, stone, or any other suitable material. The bow should be a two- to three-foot stick strung loosely with braided cordage, leather, sinew, or even a shoelace. Choose a branch which is strong enough so that the cord will not slip on the spindle. Now, measuring in from the edge of the fireboard a little more than half the diameter of the spindle, score the board with a knife to begin the socket. Likewise the handle. Cut a notch into the fireboard almost to the center of the socket. Grease the handle and the upper end of the spindle, but be careful not to lubricate the working end of the spindle or the fireboard. (You can use pine pitch, animal fat, or even oil from your hair or the sides of your nose.) Twist the spindle into the bowstring and take the proper position. If you are right handed (I am not), kneel on your right knee with your left foot across the fireboard. The socket should be just beside your instep and your chest should be firmly against your left knee. Bracing your left hand firmly against your shin, grasp the handle and keep the spindle perpendicular to the fireboard. Take the bow in your right hand and move it in line with your body. Move the bow with vigorous, long strokes, gradually increasing the pressure from the handle. Be sure you have tinder piled around the notch of your fireboard so that the center of the tinder is directly beneath the notch. Soon the board will begin smoking and you'll see dark powder forming in the notch. Apply more pressure and drill faster until the board is smoking copiously. When burning dust begins to pour into the notch take a dozen more double strokes and carefully remove the spindle from the fireboard. Use your knife to carefully tip the burning coal into the tinder. Gently blow on the ember and pack the tinder around it. As the coal spreads, blow harder until flame erupts. Feed the fire on kindling, gradually increasing the size of the firewood until you have a roaring campfire. Do not grow discouraged if you fail to even produce smoke on your first hundred attempts. Eventually you will learn the trick and never forget it. This is a skill best learned before you need to apply it; however, necessity may produce the resolve to persist until you have succeeded. More details of the fire bow drill, as well as other methods of starting a fire, can be found in Tom Brown's Field Guide to Wilderness Survival, which I highly recommend. Food When obtaining food, the prime consideration is the amount of energy expended in exchange for the food gathered. For this reason, foraging, trapping, and fishing are all preferred over active hunting. Big game should only be sought when you need to stock a supply of winter meat. Stocking meat also requires drying and smoking to keep the meat from spoiling, whereas grains and nuts simply have to be kept dry. The Four Survival Foods There are four different groups of plants which are easily identified, easily obtained, and which provide most of the nutrients necessary to sustain life. They can be found throughout the North American continent, and at least one of them can be obtained in every season. These four plant groups at one time provided the basic sustenance for most indigenous peoples on this continent. They are: grasses, cattails, acorns, and pine trees. All grasses are edible. Young shoots up to six inches tall can be eaten raw. The cellulose of mature grasses render them indigestible (this is why cows chew cud, and why rabbits eat their feces). Some of the nutrients can be steeped out by using the grasses to produce a tea which is not unpalatable. Grass seed is a valuable source of protein. Shake ripe grasses over a blanket or hide to collect the seed, rub it between your hands to remove the chaff, and toast it lightly over a fire to destroy parasites and improve the flavor. Do not use seed that is purple or black, as these may be tainted with toxic fungus (ergot poisoning is nothing with which to take a chance). Seed can be eaten raw, boiled into an oatmeal-like porridge, or ground into flour and then used for baking. Cattails are edible in all seasons and provide a variety of foods from different parts of the plant. In early spring the young shoots and stalks can be peeled and eaten raw or boiled. Later, the green flower heads can be husked and boiled (they are rather like maize). In early summer, the pollen heads can be eaten raw or dried into flour. From late summer clear through winter, horn-shaped sprouts found on the tangled rootstocks can be eaten raw or boiled. The rootstocks themselves are loaded with starch. They should be crushed, dissolved in cold water, and then drained and dried into flour. Be sure to scout out the area where you want to harvest cattails, to ensure that it is not contaminated. “Did you ever eat a Pine Tree?” as Euell Gibbons used to say. Because trees take so long to grow, I recommend that this food source is only utilized where it is plentiful, and only as necessary (this advice applies in general to all items of forage; the rule of thumb is: leave some for other foragers and to perpetuate the species - take only what you need). Tea made from the needles is a precious source of vitamin C (more than an equal serving of orange juice). How many old prospectors suffered the ravages of scurvy even while they camped in the middle of a pine forest? The needles should be diced finely and steeped for five minutes in boiling water. In spring, the male pollen anthers are high in protein. The red squirrel knows how delicious are the seeds of mature pine cones. They can be opened by placing them near the heat of a fire. In desperate circumstances, you can even eat the tree's inner bark, though this is not recommended because it will kill the tree. Wherever there are oak trees, you will find a plentiful source of Acorns. A handful of acorns has as much nutritional value as a pound of beef. Acorns of the white and pin oaks can be eaten raw. All other varieties are rather high in tannic acid, which should be leached by boiling in several changes of water. Indians used to bury them in the bed of a stream and leave them there for a day or two. The nuts can then be eaten as is or ground into flour. Beyond these four foods, every open area is loaded with edible plant life which it is beyond the scope of this paper to list. There are a number of good foraging guides available. I recommend the Peterson Field Guides (Edible Wild Plants, Medicinal Plants, and Wildflowers). Euell Gibbons' books are interesting reading but poor field guides. While acquainting yourself with edible and medicinal plants, you should also learn to identify the poisonous varieties so there is no confusion between the two. If ever you are uncertain, pass it up; a case of accidental poisoning is at best debilitating, at the worst it can prove fatal. Meat Before continuing, let me state right here that this section is not for the squeamish. Meat should only be taken for necessity, and the hunt should be undertaken in full humility and with all respect for the quarry. Taking animals for meat should be avoided unless necessary but, considering the energy and nutritional yield of meat, it should not be excluded from the diet without careful consideration. For reasons of energy conservation mentioned above, meat is best obtained through fishing or trapping. There are a number of methods of trapping using snares, dead falls, and stick traps; to describe them all would take more room than I have available here. A good wilderness survival guide will provide adequate instructions and illustrations. I recommend Tom Brown's Field Guide to Wilderness Survival. When skinning and cleaning animals, the prime concern is to avoid contamination of the meat with feces or urine, or the secretions of scent glands. The animal should be hung from a tree limb or laid on an incline, head upmost. On a male animal, tie off the penis to help prevent the meat from being spoiled by urine. From the tail upward, make an incision just under the skin and continue it all the way up to the chin. Also make an incision down each leg to the first joint. On small animals, at this point, you can strip off the skin like a jacket. Large animals require a little more effort. Eviscerate the animal by making an incision in front of the anus and sex organs and open the abdominal cavity all the way to the breastbone, being careful not to puncture any internal organs. Now cut around the anus and free the sex organs, tying off any leaks. Cut through the diaphragm and reach up to severe and pull out the windpipe and gullet. Once this is done, everything should come out easily and should be stored for future use. Once the carcass is cleaned and skinned, prop the chest cavity open and leave the meat hanging in the open air for several hours. In warm weather, meat needs to be preserved. This is easily accomplished by drying and smoking the meat by a warm fire. Butcher the carcass into thin strips, removing all fat (as this can go rancid). Lay the meat on hot rocks around the edge of the fire or drape it from a-frames or drying racks over the fire. Use only hardwood fire for this purpose. Keep the fire going and check the meat regularly. If it is lying on rocks, turn it over when the exposed side is dry. If it is fully dry, the meat will crack when you bend it, otherwise it is not dry enough. Head, internal organs, sinew, bones, hooves, and hide should all be utilized. If you do not do this then you are wasting the gift which this animal has given to you and you having no business hunting for meat in the first place. I would also like to interject that, if you are squatting on a piece of land, people are much less likely to object if you are only foraging and not poaching meat. Tanning Hides can be tanned either with the hair attached or without. If you wish to remove the hair, first soak the hide in water for a couple days. In either case, the hide should be stretched out and staked over the ground or racked on a frame; tighten and reset periodically. Peel off all fat and other matter, then let the stretched hide dry completely. Using some sort of sharp makeshift tool, scrape off the outer membrane until the hide has the appearance of suede. Rawhide is stiff but useful for everything from moccasins to container vessels. For softening the leather to make clothing, you will need to brain tan the hide. For this purpose, you should have saved the brains when you cleaned your kill. It is said that every animal has just enough brain to tan that animal's hide. Soak the rawhide until it is soft and pliable. Over a low heat, mash the animal's brains into a paste and rub them thoroughly into the wet rawhide. If the hair has been removed, treat both sides. Add water to the remaining brains and soak the hide in this broth for several hours. Wring the hide out and stretch and rack it once more. If you have left the hair on, omit the soaking but make sure the hide is permeated by the brain paste. The hide must now be continually plied, stroked, and stretched until it is dry. Work the hide with a rounded rock until all the fibers are smooth. All of this takes a good deal of time and elbow grease. Be sure to work out all rough areas. Keep this up until the hide is completely dry. Now smoke the hide over a small fire of green sticks and leaves, aiming for a smoky fire - not a hot one. Last of all, buff the hide by running it back and forth like shoe-shine clothe over a smooth pole or large, smooth rock. The final product should be soft and pliable. Further Sources There are a number of field guides and survival manuals on the market, all differing to some extent in content. I recommend Tom Brown's field guides (Tom Brown's Field Guide to Wilderness Survival, …Nature Observation and Tracking, …Living with the Earth, …City and Suburban Survival, …Wild Edible and Medicinal Plants, …the Forgotten Wilderness). This man was well taught by his Indian mentor, scout and shaman Stalking Wolf. I also recommend Tom Brown's autobiographical books (The Tracker, The Search, and The Vision) which are all compelling reading and present a view of man's relationship to nature which is vanishing. I consider all of these books to be among the most important books I have ever read. You can find a full survival guide bibliography at www.survivingpeakoil.com, with links to amazon.com. Another important source of knowledge which we should take advantage of before it vanishes entirely is our senior citizens. Many elderly people grew up in a world where wilderness lore was common knowledge. Talk to them. You may be surprised at the wealth of their knowledge, and those who possess it are usually quite willing to pass it on if you approach them correctly. Remember, the key to wilderness survival is attitude. It is only a struggle if you make it so. And be sure to show all respect and consideration for your environment and the other creatures who are your neighbors. So there is your fishing pole. Now, may you catch plenty of fish.

Planning Ahead in the Age of Oil Depletion on Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia.

Frances Oommen 14 July 2006 We live on the beautiful Island of Cape Breton in Nova Scotia, Canada. It is almost the end of the road, except for Newfoundland. The community It is what used to be termed a “depressed area.” At the present time, the coal and steel industries are no more, the fisheries are shrinking and the young people are moving away in droves to find paying jobs in other parts of Canada. There are many early-retirees, and older workers who have a lot of practical abilities such as carpentry, welding, metal work, electrical, concrete and construction skills which they learned and used in the heavy industry jobs they had in the coal mines and Sydco Steel. There are some polluted “hot Spots” in Cape Breton, - the most well known one being the Sydney Tar ponds.(1) But generally speaking, the island is one of the most pristine and unspoiled places left in the world.(2) Wild flowers and birds are seen everywhere. Not many people use pesticides to kill “weeds” in their lawns, like they do in Ontario, and no one worries about dandelions. People who live here are very close knit - everyone knows everyone else. And (like in India and other countries, where family ties are strong and important) people ask about family connections, look out for each other and help each other. Every summer people help each other out, repairing their houses and cars, sharing tools and labour, even if there is no money to pay. There is an informal barter system already in place. Many people choose to stay in Cape Breton, even though they cannot find a paying job, because of family ties, and the inner strength and support of the community. Family members who remain have not become isolated or separated from each other as they have in other parts of Canada. Food/Agriculture/Health “Food” in the supermarkets comes from as far away as California, and the Food Terminals in New Brunswick, Montreal and Toronto. On average this food has traveled approximately 2,500 kilometers to the table! Can it be fresh? Real, fresh, mostly organic, locally- grown food is available at the Cape Breton Farmer’s Market. (3) This is purchased by a small proportion of the population. There is a lot of unused arable land which could be used to produce food for local markets. A conference to discuss the opportunities for the development of agriculture on Cape Breton has been in the works for some time, and in 2006 a conference entitled "Sharing Knowledge on Agriculture and Rural Life in Atlantic Canada will take place in July. (4) According to the Cape Breton Regional Health Authority, generally speaking the average diet is poor and the population has a higher-than-average rate of disease than the rest of Canada.(5) Conventional farmers are beginning to realize that when oil and natural gas increase in price and becomes scarcer, they will not be able to use their lifeless, dead soil. If they do their homework now, they will convert to organic farming as quickly as possible, replenishing their soil through the use of compost, the rotation of crops etc. Psychological/physical and mental health What a wonderful island, Cape Breton will become! Our world is the only home that we have ever had. Some of the people of earth will survive, if those of us who will die sooner, rather than later support them, and show them the way. Most people in Health Care are unaware about oil depletion and what this means. These "experts" will be the ones that people will look to when sickness and death come. Hospital administrators and doctors etc, need to work personally through the stages of grief, and come to some level of acceptance themselves, or they will not be able to help others.(10) The stages of grief include denial, anger, isolation, depression and acceptance. Working through grief takes time, and there’s not much time -- five to ten years maximum. In North America, people are thinking in one way (that every generation expects to have a higher standard of living than the generation before them), and we will need to completely reverse our thinking. In “The Telling of Bad News” (The medical model) (11), the receivers of the bad news need to be given information, and they need to talk about the news they have been given for as long as they want to, at the time the information is given. They need to have other opportunities to talk about the bad news again at regular intervals, and they need to talk about how they are feeling with people who have experienced a similar “loss”. Long ago in school, I remember being taught about Malthus.(12) Two hundred years ago, in 1798 he wrote an essay in which he acknowledged that there is an imbalance between the growth of the population and the means of subsistence. (Population grows geometrically and subsistence grows arithmetically. The human animal was so clever that it has already used up approximately half of the stored energy in the earth (i.e. oil and natural gas) in just one hundred years. Because of our flexibility and inventiveness and belief that we are in control of our own destiny, we humans cannot stop exploiting and mining the earth. As a result there soon will be nothing left. People need to be given information. If people do not understand what is going on, they will not be able to behave in a reasonable way and their health will be affected negatively. Shelter/Heat May people in Cape Breton live in houses built by themselves or their fathers. Some houses have sloped or collapsed floors because of old mine workings under their houses. Some older people still heat their houses with their coal ration provided to them by Devco. Most people use “oil/hot water” to heat their homes -- (an oil furnace and metal radiators ). There is no natural gas and few people have electric heating. People on a fixed low income are finding it increasingly difficult to keep warm in winter -- they cannot afford to buy insulation and/or new windows. Already I have heard some people in Glace Bay say that they have to choose between food and heat. What will happen to these people when oil becomes too expensive for them to pay for it? Income/Barter Money is, generally speaking, in short supply. Many people are living on a low income. Maybe, because of this, they buy food at the super market that appears to be “better value” and more attractive in other ways. We need to start a LETS system (a Local Exchange and Trading System) so that when, (not if), there is a stock market crash, everyone will have access to a local currency that they will trust.(13) LETS is a bartering system set up by the citizens, which everyone can use. Community “scrip” like this (money or interest free credit) brings people together and encourages communication and honesty -- and is perfectly legal. Citizens will be able to exchange their skills, services and products for the skills, services and products they need from other people. Energy/Pollution Cape Breton is a windy island. A few years ago a teacher at Glace Bay High School applied for funding for a windmill; planning to put this up on the school property, so that any money generated could be used to buy computers/equipment etc. for the school. But for a long time there has been no political will on the part of the politicians and the local private electricity-generating company (Nova Scotia Power) to get this project up and running. Sadly, the teacher and students, who were involved in this project, have left school and the windmill which was purchased has been forgotten. Where is it now? Is it still lying in the warehouse? Electrical energy is generated on Cape Breton Island using imported coal from “union-busting” Guatemala, (carried here by Paul Martin’s shipping lines, I understand), in heavily polluting power stations. You can see the yellow plume /pall hanging over Dominion from the Lingan Power Station on a fine day. There are high rates of illnesses, including cancer, caused by this power station. There are no nuclear power stations in Nova Scotia, as there has always been a policy of not having these. This was in order to support the local coal industry, which no longer exists. There is a lot of interest amongst citizens to either build their own windmills or to form wind energy co-ops, which would be primarily for the benefit of the citizen shareholders, and not for the power company. Also, citizens are supportive of the two businessmen who formed a company that has put up windmills in Donkin, Glace Bay and Lingan. They sell the power produced to Nova Scotia Power. We need someone to invent a scrubber for all the chimneys on Cape Breton, because people will turn to burning coal which is still in the ground as the price of oil and wood goes up. Also we need solar-powered ferries and trains to move goods using water and rail. Clothing, including shoes and boots In the present era of free trade agreements, most boots and shoes are made in sweat shops in China, as are most other goods found in Zellers or Wal-Mart(14). At the present time there is one person(15) who does leatherwork full time on Cape Breton Island and there is no abattoir or tannery, nor are there many cattle on the island. The same goes for sheep -- but there are a few people who do spinning and weaving and some of them are under fifty years old!(16) Some ladies are trying to prepare flax to make linen thread for weaving at the Highland Village(17), but it is extremely hard work -- no one is investigating the potential of the wild lupines(18) found growing in many places on the island or the potential of growing the hardy hemp(19) plant -- both of which have the potential to provide many useful and legal products. Getting back to boots and clothes, how many people know hand sewing? How many people know how to patch clothes. These old-fashioned skills are going to be what the New Primitive Man is going to look for in a wife(20). Oh yes, she will also need to know how to preserve and keep food through the long winter months without the benefit of a refrigerator. So, if I was to stand for the position of Mayor in the next municipal election, what would be my election platform be? Facing the facts There is a great distance between the thought content of the average Cape Bretoner, and someone who knows about oil depletion and understands the implications. Like 5 years of grieving, 5 books of information, 5 discussion groups, and 5 years of getting skills to survive: we can squash this into a shorter time, but it will be tough. At least when the coal mines and the steel company closed, they knew it was coming. This time it will hit like a ton of bricks, but never fear, the people of Cape Breton are resilient. Like the governments of Sweden(21) and Western Australia(22), we must talk about the price of gasoline and our vulnerability, and plan for change. Community leaders, (knowledgeable, supportive citizens, non-governmental organizations, civic leaders, the Chief of Police, medical doctors, psychiatrists and psychologists, social workers, occupational therapists and social service workers, and business and education administrators/teachers and religious leaders, etc.) must meet to get the facts, and work through their own grieving process with their families and colleagues. Then the other people in the community must be given an opportunity to learn the true facts, grieve and help plan for the changes which will be needed if a portion of citizens are to survive. We will pull together because we care for each other and are connected to each other, so we have nothing to fear. Even when large numbers of people die, it will be O.K. because people will understand why this is happening. Becoming informed, grieving, accepting and planning are necessary alternatives to doing nothing, and allowing all hell to break loose, (Thank God I don’t live in a place like Chicago). Aha! -- now I know why they have gated communities with armed security guards in USA. Because Cape Breton is an island, populated by mature people who have gone through hard times before, it will be possible for the society to not disintegrate into a blood bath. People have supported each other through bad times before, and they will do it again. The only difference is that they will have to rely on themselves, not on federal or provincial government hand-outs. It will be a challenging and exciting time of growth of a different type, as a shrinking caring, community. Community design Municipal governments must encourage the formation of self-sufficient communities ( a "Community of communities"), where people will have access to the majority of their needs within their own neighbourhood, i.e. farmer’s market and store, school and primary health centre, community kitchen with solar cooker, windmill, food producers, carpenters and metal workers, etc. Transportation Bicycle paths should be built; people will gradually stop using cars and will use public transportation between communities. Solar powered trains should be developed. We must encourage boat building and have wind or solar ferry boats linking communities. “No way” can they dig up and sell for scrap the train track from Sydney to Antigonish (on the Mainland) and beyond. This will be our only trade route -- besides horse and buggy, or boat, to the rest of Nova Scotia and Halifax. Unless, of course, we want to declare our independence, and be autonomous and safe from mainland marauders? Incentives will be paid to encourage businesses, health care centres, schools, general stores to be set up in each community and people will be encouraged to live near to their work. Food/ Agriculture/ Health To encourage local food production, we must support organic farmers in Cape Breton. Incentives need to be paid to conventional farmers to change to organic farming methods. Allotments (gardening plots), should be provided for families to grow their own food. Co-ops could be set up to allow the sharing of power and hand tools in community gardens. The old people will teach the young; community kitchens will be set up where young people can learn about cooking and preserving food. Young people in school, and students in university and community college, will gradually increase the number of courses they take in practical skills. For example, tanning and leatherwork will be very important skills in the future, and will ensure a good income and prestige in the community. Each community will have its own weekly farmer’s market and craft sale area - i.e. where food, and locally-made clothes and shoes will be sold. LETS trading as well as the Canadian dollar will be options for payment, negotiated by both buyer and seller. Doctors will learn from the elders about local plants that are useful in the treatment of diseases. Ex Pharmacists and herbalists will make medicines from what is available from the land. Alternative healing methods will be taught and used. Doctors, nurses and other health care workers will be de-centralized. They will live in the community they serve and have a local primary care clinic. People will need to be cared for at home when they are sick. Home Care workers and other volunteers will live and work in their "walkable" community serving the sick and the dying. Does this sound like a strange way of life? Or does it have the potential of being a more satisfying life in many ways? With the price of oil and gasoline going up, NOW is the time for citizens to create the future we want, not one that is imposed on us by people from outside our Island. The Citizens of Cape Breton will want to have positive outcomes based on love and trust, not negative outcomes based on greed and fear. Frances Oommen (1) "Frederick Street", Maude Barlow and Elizabeth May, Harper Collins, 2000. (2) Cape Breton was named by the National Geographic, Traveler Magazine, as the #2 Destination in the world to visit, 2004. (3) Sydney Farmers Market, Saturday mornings, 8 am to 12 noon, Government Warf, Sydney, Nova Scotia. (4) "Eating Fossil Fuels", article by Dale Allen Pfeiffer, www.fromthwilderness.com (5) ACORN - Atlantic Canadian Organic Regional Network, www.gks.com/ACORN "Food for Naught - The Decline in Nutrition", Ross Hume Hall, Vintage Books, 1976. (9) "Einstein's Moon", F. David Peat, Contemporary Books, Chicago, 1990. "Perceiving Ordinary Magic", Jeremy W. Hayward, New Science Library, 1984. (10) "On Death and Dying", Elizabeth Kubler-Ross. (11) "How to Deliver a Terminal Diagnosis to Patients", Article by Rahul K. Chhablani www.amsa.org/dd/termdiag.cfm (12) "Energy and Human Evolution", Article by David Price, from Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Volume 16, Number4, March 1995, Human Sciences Press, Inc. (13) "Our Kind of Town", John Spayde, Utne Reader, May-June 1997. www.pipcon.com/~ptbolets/ (The Peterborough LETS Exchange). (14) Cape Breton Wind Energy Project (15) John C. Roberts, Leather Reproductions, Indian Brook, Cape Breton Island. (16) Cape Breton Centre for Craft and Design, 225 George Street, Sydney, Nova Scotia. www.capebretoncraft.com (17) Highland Village Museum, An Clachan Gaidhealach, Iona, Cape Breton Island. www.highlandvillage.museum.gov.ns.ca (18) "Hardy Lupine waiting to be cultivated", Article in the CCPA Monitor, Volume 10 No. 6, April, 2003. (19) See cartoon, Figure 1, "Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization", "Olduvai Theory - Sliding towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age. Article by Richard C. Duncan, Institute of Energy and Man. www.dieoff.org/page125htm (20) In Sweden in May 2003, Professor Kjei Aleklett of Uppsala University, ( The Association for the Study of Peak Oil), reported that there had been 30 media interviews on TV, radio, in magazines and in newspapers, in the past year to alert citizens to the “end of oil”. (21) "Global Oil Vulnerability and the Australian Situation", a paper researched for the government of Western Australia, by Bruce Robinson, in 2002. (22) www.stcwa.org.au/ (23) www.gov.ns.ca/legislature/hansard/comm/pp/pp_2004jul (24) The Serenity Prayer, www.aatoronto.org/serenity.htm (25) The Junior Encyclopedia of Canada, N-S, page 50, "substitutes for oil",

How to Plan for Peak Oil on a Limited Budget

Chris Lisle Preparing for peak oil can be relatively easy, since the preparation is 75% mental, 15% physical, and 10% fiscal. Don't be flabbergasted at what to do. Quit asking should I buy solar? Should I buy an axe? Should I buy a gun? The answers are no, no, and no. If in fact, billions of people will die, look at all the stuff that will be left behind. So, don't buy it, pick it up off the ground when others leave it behind. This feeling of a need to buy stuff is in fact the very reason why we have this predicament. We over-consume. The preparation problem is not addressed by buying more stuff; it's addressed by mentally and physically getting used to the idea of getting by on less stuff. The more you learn, the less you need to carry on your back. People spend 80% of their time worrying about things that don't happen. So, stop worry and start acting. To illustrate the absurdity of buying stuff, what would you buy? It's impossible to know what to buy, because the event of peak oil is unknown in both time and scope. Preparing for peak oil is not like preparing for a hurricane which we know will hit sometime next week, so we will buy wood to board up the doors, some extra batteries, and maybe get out of town for awhile. Peak oil will not be some isolated calamity that you somehow survive and wake up the next morning and count your blessings. Preparing for peak oil is all about preparing yourself mentally and physically for a complete and permanent change in lifestyle. It is first realizing that there will be no one to come to your rescue the next morning - there will only be you and those around you, and the realization that the next morning will be more of the same, maybe worse than the day before. It's the realization that you will have to learn to get by using less. So start now by getting over the idea you have to buy stuff and get into more debt. So how do you prepare for a situation like peak oil, which is so indefinite in time and scope? Since we don't know exactly what will happen and when, any preparation has to prepare you for any contingency at any time - now or 20 years from now. If you do the following, you and your family will be prepared for peak oil or any thing else life may throw at you. Those things are: (1) develop the right attitude; (2) stay healthy; (3) get out of debt; (4) decide where your going to live (build your shelter); (5) buy a good sleeping bag; (6) have a month of food on hand; (7) get good peers. Attitude Positive attitude is the most important aspect of surviving anything, including life in general. Life in general is just one big survival course and we all die in the end anyway. So life isn't about surviving death, it's about enjoying what time you have. A positive attitude is important to success in life and it's the difference between living or dying in a true survival situation. All survival courses begin by telling you to get the right attitude, no matter what. To survive anything, including life, you must first adopt a “can do,” “will survive” attitude. If you don't believe you will survive, you won't, plain and simple. You have to always believe that you will survive; you can't be a quitter. It's the same thing you teach your kids everyday, don't quit. Go to school each day, do your homework, try, don't quit, and everything else will work itself out. Why is it that simply not quitting will get you to the finish line? It's the law of averages; it’s because others will quit. As others quit, it moves you forward. A good example of this is the old joke about two hunters. Two hunters see a bear coming into their campsite and one starts putting on his running shoes. The other hunter says “You can't outrun that bear.” The first guy says, “I'm not going to outrun the bear. I'm going to outrun you.” In any situation, all you have to do is outlast the ones that quit. Think of peak oil as the bear. All you have to do is outrun the others, not the bear. Don't worry if others will quit, they always do. Look at all the millions of people that drop out of high school. Of those that do finish high school fewer go on to college, and fewer still finish college. These are people that quit even though it's so easy to get through high school and college. In America, an average student can make it through high school and college if they simply don't quit. I made a “C” average my whole life, but now everyone thinks I'm successful simply because I got my degrees and became a lawyer. I'm a lawyer not because I'm brilliant, but because I finished and never gave up. If a person doesn't quit and gets through high school and college, they will finish ahead of the vast majority. So, with peak oil, have a good attitude, never quit, and know that you and your family will survive. As they say in Army Ranger School, “Hard times don't last, hard people do.” Health It never makes any since not to be physically fit and healthy. Staying fit and healthy should be a part of life whether you are preparing for peak oil or not. But for those who need some extra motivation to get in shape, find it in peak oil. How can anyone believe in peak oil and not be in shape? For example, there may be little or no medicines right? Vast numbers of Americans, both young and old, suffer from obesity and are kept alive by a health system that may not survive peak oil. Those unhealthy people can barely walk up a flight of stairs right now. What are they going to do if there are no medicines to support their unhealthy lifestyle and no air conditioning, elevators, escalators, or motorized shopping carts to get their groceries? These unhealthy people are the ones that will quit first and not survive peak oil - don't you be one of them. All these millions of unhealthy people have little chance of making it. The bear of peak oil will swallow them up. All you have to do is outlast them, and that won't be hard if you just do a little today to get in shape and stay healthy. Just a little exercise and you will be okay. Basic physical fitness costs you and your family nothing, but pays big dividends not only in everything you do but in your mental attitude - remember, attitude is the first key to survival. So, you had better be on your way to physical fitness or you will be swallowed up by the bear of peak oil. The more physically fit you are, the less sick you will be. Further, in a culture that will be more and more dependent upon physical labor, you will be prepared to take on that challenge. This means you start eating right and getting some exercise. If you smoke, quit. You don't have to join a gym. You don't have to buy anything. All it takes is a little discipline to set aside a some time each day. Exercising a mere three times a week and practicing some discipline at the dinner table will put you ahead of millions of others. Do some pushups and sit-ups three times a week, and run, walk or bike three times a week and you will be okay - cut the deserts and fried foods. If you believe in the calamities of peak oil but are not willing to get in shape and start eating right, then you don't really believe in peak oil, it's only “peaked” your interest. Further, if you can't discipline yourself to workout, you don't have the winning attitude it is going to take to survive peak oil, and probably won't survive life's normal ups and downs. Life is and always has been about survival of the fittest. Survival of the fittest, literally, starts now. Make sure you and your family keep regular dental and health exams each year - prevention now, because there may be no future cure. Debt Get out of debt! You should begin getting out of debt immediately. I say this as a lawyer. Everyday, I see people's lives ruined because of debt they can't sustain. One minute, they are happy thinking their world is okay. Then, they are suddenly and completely debilitated by an injury or illness, or they lose their job, and their financial house of cards comes crashing down on them. Peak oil will do the same. Get out of debt now. This requires as much discipline as getting in shape. Most of you will probably have to completely change your lives to get out of debt. You should do this now while you control it before peak oil forces it on you. By definition, getting out of debt doesn't cost you anything, but it's not easy. You must learn to live on less. You will be preparing yourself and your family for a post peak oil economy and keeping the creditors away at the same time. Hopefully, as you get out of debt you will also be stockpiling some cash savings and increasing assets. Getting out of debt is like the old credit card commercials where the hordes go after those people with high interest credit cards and pass by the low interest credit card holder. Thus, if you get out of debt, the bear of peak oil will pass you by and go gobble up those millions of other Americans who are out spending like there is no tomorrow. The problem with the philosophy of spending like there is no tomorrow is that it's unrealistic. There is always another tomorrow, and no one knows what it will bring. So, be prepared for that unknown tomorrow by getting out of debt. There are always ways to cut costs. You save money not by getting a better paying job, but by cutting costs/expenses. To save money and get out of debt, you need to immediately quit buying stuff that you don't need. Use that money saved to get yourself out of debt. If you have to, cancel all nonessentials like cable, newspaper, and cell phone, quit eating out and start eating at home. Cancel your credit cards! Getting out of debt may mean down-sizing your life-style like selling a car that's too expensive or a house that you can't afford. The home and the car are the biggest expenses for most people. People can often downsize a home by selling one that's too expensive, make a little money on it, and then buy a cheaper smaller house. Bottom line - get out of a lifestyle that you can probably barely afford now and certainly can't afford in a time of crisis. Learn to discipline you buying - before you buy anything, ask whether you need it or desire it. There is a big difference between need and desire. For example, you need to eat, but you don't need to eat desert. Craving a desert is desire, not need. Save the money, don't get the desert, and you get in shape and out of debt at the same time. In this way, you are preparing for peak oil and so far, you haven't spent a dime. By recognizing the difference between need and desire, you are also working on your attitude, which is so critical to surviving a changing world. Your Home Shelter is the first priority in a true survival situation - then water, then food. In a true survival situation, more people die of hypothermia than for lack of thirst or food. This will be true with peak oil. So, let's talk about your shelter. Your shelter is your home. In a true survival situation, you need a shelter near a source of water and out of the extremes of the environment if possible. So, how do you select a home site meeting these criteria? Here are some considerations: (1) Own your home if possible. You need to own if possible, not rent. Owning a home is always the best thing financially, peak oil or no peak oil. Keep the home simple and inexpensive. Further, it is usually harder to get a person out of a home they own than it is to evict a tenant. Everyone does not need their own bedroom and bathroom. Abe Lincoln was raised in a one room cabin, and he turned out okay, and so will your kids. (2) You need a home with a yard. You need a yard to be able to have a garden, collect water, etc. (3) Don't live in a condo or any type of multi-housing. Don't live in an apartment or a trailer park. Condos and apartments probably don't have any usable yard space and become unbearable if the heat or AC goes off. That housing is unlivable if the elevators don't work or the water shuts off. So, move to a home and get out of the apartment or condo. (4) Live in a mild climate area. Live in a part of the United States where you can will not need heating or air-conditioning to survive. The area also needs ample rainfall each year (not Arizona or New Mexico). For example, in my home state of Arkansas, the climate is mild enough you can survive the winter, if you had to, with a blanket. You can survive summers by sitting on your porch. There are no droughts here, at least not yet. (5) Live in a state where your home is not subject to foreclosure by any creditor other than your home lender. In many states, Arkansas for example, the home is exempt from foreclosure by anyone other than the home mortgage holder. So, if you get your house paid off in Arkansas, it is truly your castle. Move to a state where your home is exempt from creditors. This makes the most financial and survival sense. (6) Downsize your home. Many people have too much home. Big homes are expensive to heat and cool, expensive to keep up, and cost more. Downsize everything, including your home. Do more with less! Get lean and mean. (7) What home should you buy. Any small home in a small community, within walking distance of a school and store, a home with a yard, preferably an acre lot to plant a garden, with a pond or a swimming pool for a source of water (pools hold up to 15,000 gallons of water or more), in an area with ample yearly rainfall. You can buy homes in small communities in rural states very cheap. Check any of the following states: Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Arkansas. At one time, some communities in Kansas were offering free lots to anyone who would build a home on them and take up a residence there. So far, nothing I have suggested has cost you anything. However, if you get your body and budget in shape, and you make sure your shelter is in the right place and the right cost, you stand a good chance of surviving the bear of peak oil; at least you will be ahead of the curve. Your Sleeping Bag There's only one item I recommend you buy, and that's a good sleeping bag. A good sleeping bag is worth its weight in gold. You need a good sleeping bag for many reasons. In a true survival situation, most people die because of hypothermia, not because of lack of water or food. A person can die of hypothermia in temperatures well above freezing. Just getting cold and wet at 60 degrees can make someone go hypothermic. In any survival situation, maintaining body temperature is critical to surviving. Further, getting sleep is essential to a good attitude and essential for making good decisions. Cave men would have killed for a good sleeping bag. How does a good sleeping bag have anything to do with peak oil? As fuel supplies dwindle, people wonder how to heat their homes without any home heating oils. The answer is easy, a $400 or less sleeping bag. I've slept comfortably in the snowy Italian Alps and in Alaska with no fire, no tent, and no ground pad - all I had was a good sleeping bag. I've spent many nights outside, and I am here to say that a good sleeping bag can keep you cozy warm in any climate under any conditions, be it rain, sleet, or snow. Even if you now live in a warm climate like southern Florida, you never know where you will be in 10 years if forced to migrate for some reason because of changes brought about by peak oil. You too will need a good sleeping bag. It is your mobile shelter. A good sleeping bag is a survival must and first on my list of survival/peak oil equipment. For a one time expense of $400 or less, you never have to worry about electric heat, wood heat, gas heat, or where you are going to sleep. The sleeping bag is lightweight, will last a lifetime if cared for, and easily transportable. If you trust me and buy a sleeping bag, buy a synthetic bag, not a down bag. Synthetic bags keep you warm even when wet, down bags don't. Always buy a bag with a temperature rating at least 15 degrees colder than your average winters. In my opinion, you should buy a synthetic bag rated down to minus 20 or 25 degrees (trust me). Here are some good dealers in cheap synthetic sleeping bags - “Cheaper than Dirt” and “High Peak.” I recently bought three synthetic sleeping bags rated down to -20 degrees for $60 each. I can survive anywhere now. Have bag, will travel. Food Have a month's supply of food on hand ($500). There are numerous websites dealing with food supplies etc. But basically, buy things you will eat. Remember, though, you are eating to survive, not for taste. When choosing foods, dry milk, white rice and dried beans will last almost indefinitely if stored right (and their cheap, a fifty pound bag of white rice costs about $13.00). Canned foods will last two years, longer if stored right. Honey is good food, stores for a long time, and is also a good home medicine. Honey is a natural antibiotic and can be used to treat wounds, even gunshot wounds and burns. Do an internet search on honey and wound care. Learn all about it. Iodized salt is a must and will last indefinitely. Pure sugar is a must, and lasts almost indefinitely. Peanut butter is the best all round survival food. You don't have to heat or cook it, it comes in its own container, you can eat it with your finger, and its crammed full of protein, carbs and fats. It will keep you going. It lasts two years on the shelf. Peers We all know that peers are an important part of growing up, but they are just as important to us as adults as they were to us as kids. Though I've been through many extreme survival courses, I have no illusions that I could survive alone for very long. Surviving alone in the wilderness is for movies. Even cave men lived in small groups and depended on the group to survive. Nations are just bigger groups. Peak oil will not be the death of us all, there will be survivors. To survive peak oil and life, you are going to have to be surrounded by good, honest, trustworthy people - people that help each other out. A group provides strength and security in many ways. For example, you cannot learn everything you need to learn. It would be impossible to know all trades or even know what trades to learn, so just find a community of people, develop good relationships, and you will be okay. The collective knowledge and power of your community is what will get you through peak oil.

Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century

Dmitry Orlov Introduction A decade and a half ago the world went from bipolar to unipolar, because one of the poles fell apart: The S.U. is no more. The other pole - symmetrically named the U.S. - has not fallen apart - yet, but there are ominous rumblings on the horizon. The collapse of the United States seems about as unlikely now as the collapse of the Soviet Union seemed in 1985. The experience of the first collapse may be instructive to those who wish to survive the second. Reasonable people would never argue that that the two poles were exactly symmetrical; along with significant similarities, there were equally significant differences, both of which are valuable in predicting how the second half of the clay-footed superpower giant that once bestrode the planet will fare once it too falls apart. I have wanted to write this article for almost a decade now. Until recently, however, few people would have taken it seriously. After all, who could have doubted that the world economic powerhouse that is the United States, having recently won the Cold War and the Gulf War, would continue, triumphantly, into the bright future of superhighways, supersonic jets, and interplanetary colonies? But more recently the number of doubters has started to climb steadily. The U.S. is desperately dependent on the availability of cheap, plentiful oil and natural gas, and addicted to economic growth. Once oil and gas become expensive (as they already have) and in ever-shorter supply (a matter of one or two years at most), economic growth will stop, and the U.S. economy will collapse. Many may still scoff at this cheerless prognosis, but this article should find a few readers anyway. In October 2004, when I started working on it, an Internet search for “peak oil” and “economic collapse” yielded about 16,300 documents; by April of 2005 that number climbed to 4,220,000. This is a dramatic change in public opinion only, because what is known on the subject now is more or less what was known a decade or so ago, when there was exactly one Web site devoted to the subject: Jay Hanson’s Dieoff.org. This sea change in public opinion is not restricted to the Internet, but is visible in the mainstream and the specialist press as well. Thus, the lack of attention paid to the subject over the decades resulted not from ignorance, but from denial: although the basic theory that is used to model and predict resource depletion has been well understood since the 1960s, most people prefer to remain in denial. Denial Although this is a bit off the subject of Soviet collapse and what it may teach us about our own, I can’t resist saying a few words about denial, for it is such an interesting subject. I also hope that it will help some of you to go beyond denial, this being a helpful step towards understanding what I am going to say here. Now that a lot of the predictions are coming true more or less on schedule, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the steady climb of energy prices and the dire warnings from energy experts of every stripe, outright denial is being gradually replaced with subtler forms of denial, which center around avoiding any serious, down-to-earth discussion of the likely actual consequences of peak oil, and of the ways one might cope with them. Instead, there is much discussion of policy: what “we” should do. The “we” in question is presumably some embodiment of the great American Can-Do Spirit: a brilliantly organized consortium of government agencies, leading universities and research centers, and major corporations, all working together toward the goal of providing plentiful, clean, environmentally safe energy, to fuel another century of economic expansion. Welcome to the sideshow at the end of the universe! One often hears that “We could get this done, if only we wanted to.” Most often one hears this from non-specialists, sometimes from economists, and hardly ever from scientists or engineers. A few back-of-the-envelope calculations are generally enough to suggest otherwise, but here logic runs up against faith in the Goddess of Technology: that she will provide. On her altar are assembled various ritualistic objects used to summon the Can-Do Spirit: a photovoltaic cell, a fuel cell, a vial of ethanol, and a vial of bio-diesel. Off to the side of the altar is a Pandora’s box packed with coal, tar sand, oceanic hydrates, and plutonium: if the Goddess gets angry, it’s curtains for life on Earth. But let us look beyond mere faith, and focus on something slightly more rational instead. This “we,” this highly organized, high-powered problem-solving entity, is quickly running out of energy, and once it does, it will not be so high-powered any more. I would like to humbly suggest that any long-term plan it attempts to undertake is doomed, simply because crisis conditions will make long-term planning, along with large, ambitious projects, impossible. Thus, I would suggest against waiting around for some miracle device to put under the hood of every SUV and in the basement of every McMansion, so that all can live happily ever after in this suburban dream, which is looking more and more like a nightmare in any case. The next circle of denial revolves around what must inevitably come to pass if the Goddess of Technology were to fail us: a series of wars over ever more scarce resources. Paul Roberts, who is very well informed on the subject of peak oil, has this to say: “what desperate states have always done when resources turn scarce… [is] fight for them.” Let us not argue that this has never happened, but did it ever amount to anything more than a futile gesture of desperation? Wars take resources, and, when resources are already scarce, fighting wars over resources becomes a lethal exercise in futility. Those with more resources would be expected to win. I am not arguing that wars over resources will not occur. I am suggesting is that they will be futile, and that victory in these conflicts will be barely distinguishable from defeat. I would also like to suggest that these conflicts would be self-limiting: modern warfare uses up prodigious amounts of energy, and if the conflicts are over oil and gas installations, then they will get blown up, as in Iraq. This will result in less energy being available and, consequently, less warfare. Take, for example, the last two US involvements in Iraq. In each case, as a result of US actions, Iraqi oil production decreased. It now appears that the whole strategy is a failure. Supporting Saddam, then fighting Saddam, then imposing sanctions on Saddam, then finally overthrowing him, has left Iraqi oil fields so badly damaged that the “ultimate recoverable” estimate for Iraqi oil is now down to 10-12% of what was once thought to be underground (according to the New York Times). Some people are even suggesting a war over resources with a nuclear endgame. On this point, I am optimistic. As Robert McNamara once thought, nuclear weapons are too difficult to use. And although he has done a great deal of work to make them easier to use, with the introduction of small, tactical, battlefield nukes and the like, and despite recent renewed interest in nuclear “bunker busters,” they still make a bit of a mess, and are hard to work into any sort of a sensible strategy that would reliably lead to an increased supply of energy. Noting that conventional weapons have not been effective in this area, it is unclear why nuclear weapons would produce better results. But these are all details; the point I really want to make is that proposing resource wars, even as a worst-case scenario, is still a form of denial. The implicit assumption is this: if all else fails, we will go to war, win, the oil will flow again, and we will be back to business as usual in no time. Again, I would suggest against waiting around for the success of a global police action to redirect a lion’s share of the dwindling world oil supplies toward the United States. Outside this last circle of denial lies a vast wilderness called the Collapse of Western Civilization, roamed by the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, or so some people will have you believe. Here we find not denial but escapism: a hankering for a grand finale, a heroic final chapter. Civilizations do collapse - this is one of the best-known facts about them - but as anyone who has read The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire will tell you, the process can take many centuries. What tends to collapse rather suddenly is the economy. Economies, too, are known to collapse, and do so with far greater regularity than civilizations. An economy does not collapse into a black hole from which no light can escape. Instead, something else happens: society begins to spontaneously reconfigure itself, establish new relationships, evolve new rules, in order to find a point of equilibrium at a lower rate of resource expenditure. Note that the exercise carries a high human cost: without an economy, many people suddenly find themselves as helpless as newborn babes. Many of them die, sooner than they would otherwise: some would call this a “die-off.” There is a part of the population that is most vulnerable: the young, the old, and the infirm; the foolish and the suicidal. There is also another part of the population that can survive indefinitely on insects and tree bark. Most people fall somewhere in between. Once we accept the idea that don’t collapse into nothing, but that economic collapses give rise to new, smaller and poorer economies, we can start reasoning about similarities and differences between a collapse that has already occurred and one that is about to occur. Unlike astrophysicists, who can confidently predict whether a given star will collapse into a neutron star or a black hole based on measurements and calculations, I have to work with general observations and anecdotal evidence. However, my thought experiment allows me to guess at the general shape of the new economy, and arrive at survival strategies that may be of use to individuals and small communities. The Collapse of the Soviet Union - an Overview When trying to think about what happens when a modern economy collapses, and the complex society it supports disintegrates, a look at a country that has recently undergone such an experience can be most educational. We are lucky enough to have such an example: the collapse of the Soviet Union. I spent a total of about six months living, traveling, and doing business in Russia during the perestroika period and immediately afterward, and was fascinated by the transformation I witnessed. The specifics are different, of course. The Soviet problems seem to have been largely organizational rather than physical in nature, although the fact that the Soviet Union collapsed just 3 years after reaching peak oil production is hardly a coincidence. The ultimate cause of Soviet Union’s spontaneous collapse remains shrouded in mystery. Was it Ronald Reagan’s Star Wars? Or was it Raisa Gorbachev’s American Express card? It is possible to fake a missile defense shield; but it is not so easy to fake a Herod’s department store. The arguments go back and forth. One contemporary theory would have it that the Soviet elite scuttled the whole program when it decided that Soviet Socialism was not going to make them rich. (It remains unclear why it should have taken the Soviet elite 70 years to come to this startlingly obvious conclusion.) A slightly more commonsense explanation is this: during the pre-perestroika “stagnation” period, due to the chronic underperformance of the economy, coupled with record levels of military expenditure, trade deficit, and foreign debt, it became increasingly difficult for the average Russian middle-class family of three, with both parents working, to make ends meet. (Now, isn’t that beginning to sound familiar?) Of course, the government bureaucrats were not too concerned about the plight of the people. But the people found ways to survive by circumventing government controls in a myriad of ways, preventing the government from getting the results it needed to keep the system going. Therefore, the system had to be reformed. When this became the consensus view, reformers lined up to try and reform the system. Alas, the system could not be reformed. Instead of adapting, it fell apart. Russia was able to bounce back economically because it remains fairly rich in oil and very rich in natural gas, and will probably continue in relative prosperity for at least a few more decades. In North America, on the other hand, oil production peaked in the early 1970s and has been in decline ever since, while natural gas production is now set to fall off a production cliff. Yet energy demand continues to rise far above what the continent can supply, making such a spontaneous recovery unlikely. When I say that Russia bounced back, I am not trying to understate the human cost of the Soviet collapse, or the lopsidedness and the economic disparities of the re-born Russian economy. But I am suggesting that where Russia bounced back because it was not fully spent, the United States will be more fully spent, and less capable of bouncing back. But such “big picture” differences are not so interesting. It is the micro-scale similarities that offer interesting practical lessons on how small groups of individuals can successfully cope with economic and social collapse. And that is where the post-Soviet experience offers a multitude of useful lessons. Returning to Russia I first flew back to Leningrad, which was soon to be rechristened St. Petersburg, in the summer of 1989, about a year after Gorbachev freed the last batch of political prisoners, my uncle among them, who had been locked up by General Secretary Andropov’s final, senile attempt at clenching an iron fist. For the first time it became possible for Soviet escapees to go back and visit. More than a decade had passed since I left, but the place was much as I remembered it: bustling streets full of Volgas and Ladas, Communist slogans on the roofs of towering buildings lit up in neon, long lines in shops. About the only thing new was a bustle of activity around a newly organized Cooperative movement. A newly hatched entrepreneurial class was busy complaining that their cooperatives were only allowed to sell to the government, at government prices, while hatching ingenuous schemes to skim something off the top through barter arrangements. Most were going bankrupt. It did not turn out to be a successful business model for them or for the government, which was, as it turned out, also on its last legs. I went back a year later, and found a place I did not quite recognize. First of all, it smelled different: the smog was gone. The factories had largely shut down, there was very little traffic, and the fresh air smelled wonderful! The stores were largely empty and often closed. There were very few gas stations open, and the ones that were open had lines that stretched for many blocks. There was a ten-liter limit on gasoline purchases. Since there was nothing better for us to do, my friends and I decided to take a road trip, to visit the ancient Russian cities of Pskov and Novgorod, taking in the surrounding countryside along the way. For this, we had to obtain fuel. It was hard to come by. It was available on the black market, but no one felt particularly inclined to let go of something so valuable in exchange for something so useless as money. Soviet money ceased to have value, since there was so little that could be bought with it, and people still felt skittish around foreign currency. Luckily, there was a limited supply of another sort of currency available to us. It was close to the end of Gorbachev’s ill-fated anti-alcoholism campaign, during which vodka was rationed. There was a death in my family, for which we received a funeral’s worth of vodka coupons, which we of course redeemed right away. What was left of the vodka was placed in the trunk of the trusty old Lada, and off we went. Each half-liter bottle of vodka was exchanged for ten liters of gasoline, giving vodka far greater effective energy density than rocket fuel. There is a lesson here: when faced with a collapsing economy, one should stop thinking of wealth in terms of money. Access to actual physical resources and assets, as well as intangibles such as connections and relationships, quickly becomes much more valuable than mere cash. *** Two years later, I was back again, this time in the dead of winter. I was traveling on business through Minsk, St. Petersburg and Moscow. My mission was to see whether any of the former Soviet defense industry could be converted to civilian use. The business part of the trip was a total fiasco and a complete waste of time, just as one would expect. In other ways, it was quite educational. Minsk seemed like a city rudely awakened from hibernation. During the short daylight hours, the streets were full of people, who just stood around, as if wondering what to do next. The same feeling pervaded the executive offices, where people I used to think of as the representatives of the “evil empire” sat around under dusty portraits of Lenin bemoaning their fate. No one had any answers. The only beam of sunshine came from a smarmy New York lawyer who hung around the place trying to organize a state lottery. He was almost the only man with a plan. (The director of a research institute which was formerly charged with explosion-welding parts for nuclear fusion reactor vessels, or some such thing, also had a plan: he wanted to build summer cottages.) I wrapped up my business early and caught a night train to St. Petersburg. On the train, a comfortable old sleeper car, I shared a compartment with a young, newly retired army doctor, who showed me his fat roll of hundred-dollar bills and told me all about the local diamond trade. We split a bottle of cognac and snoozed off. It was a pleasant trip. St. Petersburg was a shock. There was a sense of despair that hung in the winter air. There were old women standing around in spontaneous open-air flea markets trying to sell toys that probably belonged to their grandchildren, to buy something to eat. Middle-class people could be seen digging around in the trash. Everyone’s savings were wiped out by hyperinflation. I arrived with a large stack of one-dollar bills. Everything was one dollar, or a thousand rubles, which was about five times the average monthly salary. I handed out lots of these silly thousand-ruble notes: “Here, I just want to make sure you have enough.” People would recoil in shock: “That’s a lot of money!” “No, it isn’t. Be sure to spend it right away.” However, all the lights were on, there was heat in many of the homes, and the trains ran on time. My business itinerary involved a trip to the countryside to tour and to have meetings at some scientific facility. The phone lines to the place were down, and so I decided to just jump on a train and go there. The only train left at 7 am. I showed up around 6, thinking I could find breakfast at the station. The station was dark and locked. Across the street, there was a store selling coffee, with a line that wrapped around the block. There was also an old woman in front of the store, selling buns from a tray. I offered her a thousand-ruble note. “Don’t throw your money around!” she said. I offered to buy her entire tray. “What are the other people going to eat?” she asked. I went and stood in line for the cashier, presented my thousand-ruble note, got a pile of useless change and a receipt, presented the receipt at the counter, collected a glass of warm brown liquid, drank it, returned the glass, paid the old woman, got my sweet bun, and thanked her very much. It was a lesson in civility. *** Three years later, I was back again, and the economy had clearly started to recover, at least to the extent that goods were available to those who had money, but enterprises were continuing to shut down, and most people were still clearly suffering. There were new, private stores, which had tight security, and which sold imported goods for foreign currency. Very few people could afford to shop at these stores. There were also open air markets in many city squares, at which most of the shopping was done. Many kinds of goods were dispensed from locked metal booths, quite a few of which belonged to the Chechen mafia: one shoved a large pile of paper money through a hole and was handed back the item. There were sporadic difficulties with the money supply. I recall standing around waiting for banks to open in order to cash my traveler’s checks. The banks were closed because they were fresh out of money; they were all waiting for cash to be delivered. Once in a while, a bank manager would come out and make an announcement: the money is on its way, no need to worry. There was a great divide between those who were unemployed, underemployed, or working in the old economy, and the new merchant class. For those working for the old state-owned enterprises - schools, hospitals, the railways, the telephone exchanges, and what remained of the rest of the Soviet economy - it was lean times. Salaries were paid sporadically, or not at all. Even when people got their money, it was barely enough to subsist on. But the worst of it was clearly over. A new economic reality had taken hold. A large segment of the population saw its standard of living reduced, sometimes permanently. It took the economy ten years to get back to its pre-collapse level, and the recovery was uneven. Alongside the nouveau riche, there were many whose income would never recover. Those who could not become part of the new economy, especially the pensioners, but also many others, who had benefited from the now defunct socialist state, could barely eke out a living. This thumbnail sketch of my experiences in Russia is intended to convey a general sense of what I had witnessed. But it is the details of what I have observed that I hope will be of value to those who see an economic collapse looming ahead, and want to plan, in order to survive it. Similarities between the Superpowers A lot of people would find a direct comparison between the United States and the Soviet Union incongruous, if not downright insulting. After all, what grounds are there to compare a failed Communist empire to the world’s largest economy? Some might find it humorous that the loser might have advice for the winner in what they might see as an ideological conflict. Since the differences between the two appear glaring to most, let me just indicate the similarities, which I hope you will find are no less obvious. The Soviet Union and the United States are either winner or runner-up in the following categories: the space race, the arms race, the jails race, the hated evil empire race, the squandering of natural resources race, and the bankruptcy race. In some of these categories, the United States is, shall we say, a late bloomer, setting new records even after its rival was forced to forfeit. Both believed, with giddy zeal, in science, technology, and progress, right up until the Chernobyl disaster occurred. After that, there was only one true believer left. They are the two post-World War II industrial empires that attempted to impose their ideologies on the rest of the world: democracy and capitalism versus socialism and central planning. Both had some successes: while the United States reveled in growth and prosperity, the Soviet Union achieved universal literacy, universal health care, far less social inequality, and a guaranteed - albeit lower - standard of living for all citizens. The state-controlled media took pains to make sure that most people didn’t realize just how much lower it was: “Those happy Russians don’t know how badly they live”, Simone Signoret said after visiting Russia. Both empires made a big mess of quite a few other countries, each financing and directly taking part in bloody conflicts around the world in order to impose their ideology, and to thwart the other. Both made quite a big mess of their own country, setting world records for the percentage of population held in jails (South Africa was a contender at one point). In this last category, the U.S. is now a runaway success, supporting a burgeoning, partially privatized prison-industrial complex. While the United States used to have far more good will around the world than the Soviet Union, the “evil empire” gap has narrowed since the Soviet Union disappeared from the scene. Now, in many countries around the world, including Western countries like Sweden, the United States ranks as a bigger threat to peace than Iran or North Korea. In the hated empire race, the United States is now beginning to look like the champion here as well. Nobody likes a loser, but especially if the loser is a failed superpower. Nobody had any pity for poor defunct Soviet Union; and nobody will have any pity for poor defunct America either. The bankruptcy race is particularly interesting. Prior to its collapse, the Soviet Union was taking on foreign debt at a rate that could not be sustained. The combination of low world oil prices and a peak in Soviet oil production sealed its fate. Later, the Russian Federation, which inherited the Soviet foreign debt, was forced to default on its obligations, precipitating a financial crisis. Russia’s finances later improved, primarily due to rising oil prices, along with rising oil exports. At this point, Russia is eager to wipe out the remaining Soviet debt as quickly as possible, and over the past few years the Russian rouble has done just a bit better than the U.S. dollar. The United States is now facing a current account deficit that cannot be sustained, a falling currency, and an energy crisis, all at once. It is now the world’s largest debtor nation, and most people do not see how it can avoid defaulting on its debt. According to a lot of analysts, it is technically bankrupt, and is being propped up by foreign reserve banks, which hold a lot of dollar-denominated assets, and, for the time being, want to protect the value of their reserves. This game can only go on for so long. Thus, while the Soviet Union deserves honorable mention for going bankrupt first, the gold in this category (pun intended) will undoubtedly go to the United States, for the largest default ever. There are many other similarities as well. Women received the right to education and a career in Russia earlier than in the U.S. Russian and American families are in similarly sad shape, with high divorce rates and many out-of-wedlock births, although the chronic shortage of housing in Russia did force many families to stick it out, with mixed results. Both countries have been experiencing chronic depopulation of farming districts. In Russia, family farms were decimated during collectivization, along with agricultural output; in the U.S., a variety of other forces produced a similar result with regard to rural population, but without any loss of production. Both countries replaced family farms with unsustainable, ecologically disastrous industrial agribusiness, addicted to fossil fuels. The American ones work better, as long as energy is cheap, and, after that, probably not at all. The similarities are too numerous to mention. I hope that what I outlined above is enough to signal a key fact: that these are, or were, the antipodes of the same industrial, technological civilization. Differences between the Superpowers: Ethnicity Our thumbnail sketch of the two superpowers would not be complete without a comparison of some of the differences, which are no less glaring than the similarities. The United States has traditionally been a very racist country, with numerous categories of people one wouldn’t want one’s daughter or sister to marry, no matter who one happens to be. It was founded on the exploitation of African slaves and the extermination of the natives. Over its formative years, there was no intermarriage between the Europeans and the Africans, or Europeans and the Indians. This stands in stark contrast to other American continent nations such as Brazil. To this day in the U.S. there remains a disdainful attitude toward any tribe other than the Anglo-Saxon. Glazed over with a layer of political correctness, at least in polite society, it comes out again when observing whom people actually choose to marry, or date. Russia is a country whose ethnic profile shifts slowly from mainly European in the West to Asian in the East. Russia’s settlement of its vast territory was accompanied by intermarriage with every tribe the Russians met on their drive east. One of the formative episodes of Russian history was the Mongol invasion, which resulted in a large infusion of Asian blood into Russia’s bloodlines. On the other hand, Russia had received quite a few immigrants from Western Europe. Currently, Russia’s ethnic problems are limited to combating ethnic mafias, and to the many small but humiliating episodes of anti-Semitism, which has been a feature Russian society for centuries, and, in spite of which, Jews, my family included, have done quite well there. Jews were barred from some of the more prestigious universities and institutes, and were held back in other ways. The United States remains a powder keg of ethnic tension, where urban blacks feel oppressed by suburban whites, who in turn fear to venture into the cities. In a time of permanent crisis, the urban blacks are likely to riot and loot the cities, because they don’t own them, and the suburban whites are likely to get foreclosed out of their “little cabins in the woods”, as James Kunstler charmingly calls them, and decamp to a nearby trailer park. Add to this already volatile mixture the fact that firearms are widely available, and the fact that violence permeates American society. In short, the social atmosphere of post-collapse America is unlikely to be as placid and amicable as that of post-collapse Russia. At least in parts, it is more likely to resemble other, more ethnically mixed, and therefore less fortunate parts of the Former Soviet Union, such as the Fergana valley and, of course, that “beacon of freedom” in the Caucasus, Georgia (or so says the U.S. President). No part of the United States is an obvious choice for the survival-minded, but some are obviously riskier than others. Any place with a history of racial or ethnic tension is probably unsafe. This rules out the South, the Southwest, and many large cities elsewhere. Some people might find a safe harbor in an ethnically homogeneous enclave of their own kind, while the rest would be well-advised to look for the few communities where inter-ethnic relations have been cemented through integrated living and intermarriage, and where the strange and fragile entity that is multi-ethnic society might have a chance of holding together. Differences between the Superpowers: Ownership Another key difference: in the Soviet Union, nobody owned their place of residence. What this meant is that the economy could collapse without causing homelessness: just about everyone went on living in the same place as before. There were no evictions or foreclosures. Everyone stayed put, and this prevented society from disintegrating. One more difference: the place where they stayed put was generally accessible by public transportation, which continued to run during the worst of times. Most of the Soviet-era developments were centrally planned, and central planners do not like sprawl: it is too difficult and expensive to service. Few people owned cars, and even fewer depended on cars for getting around. Even the worst gasoline shortages resulted in only minor inconveniences for most people: in the springtime, they made it difficult to transport seedlings from the city to the dacha for planting; in the fall, they made it difficult to haul the harvest back to the city. Differences between the Superpowers: Labor Profile The Soviet Union was almost entirely self-sufficient when it came to labor; not so with the United States, where not only is most of the manufacturing done abroad, but a lot of service back home is provided by foreigners and immigrants as well. This includes the professions, such as engineering and medicine, without which society will unravel. Most of these people came to the United States to enjoy the superior standard of living - for as long as it lasts. Many of them will eventually head home, leaving a gaping hole in the social fabric. It is no surprise that this situation should have come about; for the last few generations, Americans preferred disciplines such as law, communications, and business administration, while immigrants and foreigners went into the sciences and engineering. This was known as “brain drain” - America’s extraction of talent from foreign lands, to its advantage, and to their detriment. This flow of brain power is likely to reverse itself, leaving the country even less capable of finding ways to cope with its economic predicament. This may mean that, even in areas where there will be ample scope for innovation and development, such as restoration of rail service, or renewable energy, America may find itself without the necessary talent to make it happen. Differences between the Superpowers: Religion The last dimension worth mentioning along which the Soviet Union and the United States are in stark contrast is that of religion. Pre-revolutionary Russia’s two-headed eagle symbolized the monarchy and the church, with a crown on one head and a miter on the other. Along with its somewhat holier manifestations, the Russian church was as bloated with wealth and ostentation, and as oppressive, as the monarchy whose power it helped legitimize. But over the course of the 20th century Russia managed to evolve in a distinctly secular way, oppressing religious people with compulsory atheism. The United States, uncharacteristically for a Western nation, remains a fairly religious place, where most people look for and find God in a church, or a synagogue, or a mosque. The colonies’ precocious move to leave the fold of the British Empire has made the U.S. something of a living fossil in terms of cultural evolution. This is manifested in some trivial ways, such as the inability to grasp the metric system (a problem considered mostly solved in England itself) or its distinctly 18th century tendency to make a fetish of its national flag, as well as in some major ones, such as its rather half-hearted embrace of secularism. What this difference means in the context of economic collapse is, surprisingly, next to nothing. Perhaps the American is more likely than not to start quoting the Bible and going on about the Apocalypse, the end of times, and the Rapture. These thoughts, need I say, are not conducive to survival. But the supposedly atheist Russian turned out to be just as likely to go on about The End of the World, and flocked to the newly opened churches in search of certainty and solace. Perhaps the more significant difference is not between the prevalence and the lack of religion, but the differences between the dominant religions. In spite of the architectural ostentation of the Russian Orthodox Church, and the pomp and circumstance of its rituals, its message has always been one of asceticism as the road to salvation. Salvation is for the poor and the humble, because one’s rewards are either in this world or the next, not both. This is rather different from Protestantism, the dominant religion in America, which made the dramatic shift to considering wealth as one of God’s blessings, ignoring some inconvenient points rather emphatically made by Jesus to the effect that rich people are extremely unlikely to be saved. Conversely, poverty became associated with laziness and vice, robbing poor people of their dignity. Thus, a Russian is less likely to consider sudden descent into poverty as a fall from God’s grace, and economic collapse as God’s punishment upon the people, while the religions that dominate America - Protestantism, Judaism, and Islam - all feature temporal success of their followers as a key piece of evidence that God is well-disposed toward them. What will happen once God’s good will toward them is no longer manifest? Chances are, they will become angry and try to find someone other than their own selves to blame, that being one of the central mechanisms of human psychology. We should look forward to unexpectedly wrathful congregations eager to do the work of an unexpectedly wrathful God. The United States is by no means homogeneous when it comes to intensity of religious sentiment. When looking for a survivable place to settle, it is probably a good idea to look for a place where religious fervor does not run to extremes. The Loss of Technological Comforts Warning: what I am about to say may be somewhat unpleasant, but I’d like to get the issue out of the way. Most of the technological progress of the 20th century resulted in a higher level of physical comfort. Yes, that’s why we caused global warming, a hole in the ozone layer, and a mass extinction of plants, fish, birds, and mammals: to be somewhat more comfortable for a little while. We all expect heating and air-conditioning, hot and cold water, reliable electricity, personal transportation, paved roads, illuminated streets and parking lots, maybe even high-speed Internet. Well, what if you had to give up all that? Or, rather, what will you do when you have to give up all that? Most of our ancestors put up with a level of physical discomfort we would find appalling: no running hot water, an outhouse instead of a flush toilet, no central heat, and one’s own two feet, or a horse, as the main means for getting around. And still they managed to produce a civilization and a culture that we can just barely manage to emulate and preserve. Let’s start with the most important civilizing element: the toilet. It’s what sets us apart from other higher primates, who think nothing of throwing their feces about just to make a point. You don’t have to go to the zoo to find examples: on a recent afternoon, as I was bicycling past the Fresh Pond Mall in Cambridge, Massachusetts - a short stretch suburban hell haphazardly inserted between the idyllic Minuteman bike trail and the perfectly reasonable, older parts of Boston - I smelled it: raw sewage. There was a Cambridge Public Works truck, and it was pumping sewage right onto the inbound side of Route 2. Apparently, their policy of hiring the best and the brightest is finally paying off. The fine ambiance pervaded the strip mall for at least a week. It doesn’t take a crisis to make public utilities go on the blink, but a crisis certainly helps. Any crisis will do: economic, financial, or even political. Consider the governor of Primorye, a region on the far side of Siberia, who simply stole all the money that was supposed to buy coal for the winter. Primorye froze. With winter temperatures around 40 below, it’s a wonder there’s anyone still living there. It’s a testament to human perseverance. As the economic situation degenerates, events seem to unfold in a certain sequence, regardless of locale. They always seem to lead to the same result: unsanitary conditions. But an energy crisis seems to me by far the most efficacious way of depriving one of one’s treasured utility services. First, electricity begins to wink in and out. Eventually, this settles into a rhythm. Countries such as Georgia, Bulgaria and Romania, as well as some peripheral regions of Russia, have had to put up with a few hours of electricity a day, sometimes for several years. North Korea is perhaps the best Soviet pupil we have, surviving without much electricity for years. Lights flicker on as the sun begins to set. The generators struggle on for a few hours, powering light bulbs, television sets, and radios. When it’s time for bed, the lights wink out once again. Second in line is heat. Every year, it comes on later and goes off sooner. People watch television or listen to the radio, when there’s electricity, or just sit, under piles of blankets. Sharing bodily warmth has been a favored survival technique among humans through the ice ages. People get used to having less heat, and eventually stop complaining. Even in these relatively prosperous times, there are apartment blocks in St. Petersburg that are heated every other day, even during the coldest parts of winter. Thick sweaters and down comforters are used in place of the missing buckets of coal. Third in line is hot water: the shower runs cold. Unless you’ve been deprived of a cold shower, you won’t be able to appreciate it for the luxury that it affords. In case you are curious, it’s a quick shower. Get wet, lather up, rinse off, towel off, dress, and shiver, under several layers of blankets, and let’s not forget shared bodily warmth. A less radical approach is to wash standing in a bucket of warm water - heated up on the stove. Get wet, lather, rinse. And don’t forget to shiver. Next, water pressure drops off altogether. People learn to wash in even less water. There is a lot of running around with buckets and plastic jugs. But the worst part of this is not the lack of running water; it is that the toilets won’t flush. If the population is enlightened and disciplined, it will realize what it must do: collect their excretions in buckets and hand-carry them to a sewer inlet. The super-enlightened build outhouses and put together composting toilets, and use the proceeds to fertilize their kitchen gardens. Under this combined set of circumstances, there are three causes of mortality to avoid. The first is simply avoiding freezing to death. It takes some preparation to be able to go camping in wintertime. But this is by far the easiest problem. The next is avoiding humans’ worst companions through the ages: bedbugs, fleas, and lice. These never fail to make their appearance wherever unwashed people huddle together, and spread diseases such as typhoid, which have claimed millions of lives. A hot bath and a complete change of clothes is often a lifesaver. Baking the clothes in an oven kills the lice and their eggs. The last is avoiding cholera and other diseases spread through feces by boiling all drinking water. It seems safe to assume that the creature comforts to which we are accustomed are going to be few and far between. But if we are willing to withstand the little indignities of reading by candlelight, bundling up throughout the cold months, running around with buckets of water, shivering while standing in a bucket of tepid water, and carrying our poop out in a bucket, then none of this is enough to stop us from maintaining a level of civilization worthy of our ancestors, who probably had it worse than we ever will. They were either depressed or cheerful about it, in keeping with their personal disposition and national character, but apparently they survived, or you wouldn’t be reading this. Economic Comparison It can be said that the U.S. economy is run either very well or very badly. On the plus side, companies are lean, and downsized as needed to keep them profitable, or at least in business. There are bankruptcy laws that weed out the unfit and competition to keep productivity going up. Businesses use just in time delivery to cut down on inventory and make heavy use of information technology to work out the logistics of operating in a global economy. On the minus side, the U.S. economy runs ever larger structural deficits. It fails to provide the majority of the population with the sort of economic security that people in other developed nations take for granted. It spends more on medicine and education than many other countries, and gets less for it. Instead of a single government-owned airline it has several permanently bankrupt government-supported ones. It spends heavily on law enforcement, and has a high crime rate. It continues to export high-wage manufacturing jobs and replace them with low-wage service jobs. As I mentioned before, it is, technically, bankrupt. It can also be said that the Soviet economy was run either very well or very badly. On the plus side, that system, for all its many failings, managed to eradicate the more extreme forms of poverty, malnutrition, many diseases, and illiteracy. It provided economic security of an extreme sort: everyone knew exactly how much they would earn, and the prices of everyday objects remained fixed. Housing, health care, education, and pensions were all guaranteed. Quality varied; education was generally excellent, housing much less so, and Soviet medicine was often called “the freest medicine in the world”. On the minus side, the centrally planned behemoth was extremely inefficient, with vast lossage and outright waste at every level. The distribution system was so inflexible that enterprises hoarded inventory. It excelled at producing capital goods, but when it came to manufacturing consumer goods, which require much more flexibility than a centrally planned system can provide, it failed. It also failed miserably at producing food, and was forced to resort to importing many basic foodstuffs. It operated a huge military and political empire, but, paradoxically, failed to derive any economic benefit from it, running the entire enterprise at a net loss. Also paradoxically, these very failings and inefficiencies made for a soft landing. Because there was no mechanism by which state enterprises could go bankrupt, they often continued to operate for a time at some low level, holding back salaries or scaling back production. This lessened the number of instant mass layoffs or outright closings, but where these did occur, they were accompanied by very high mortality among men between the ages of 45 and 55, who turn out to be psychologically the most vulnerable to sudden loss of career, and who either drank themselves to death or committed suicide. People could sometimes use their old, semi-defunct place of employment as a base of operations of sorts, from which to run a black market business, which allowed many of them to gradually transition to private enterprise. The inefficient distribution system, and the hoarding to which it gave rise, resulted in very high levels of inventory, which could be bartered. Some enterprises continued to operate in this manner, bartering their left over inventory with other enterprises, in order to supply their employees with something they could use, or sell. What parallels can we draw from this to employment in the post-collapse United States? Public sector employment may provide somewhat better chances for keeping one’s job. For instance, it is unlikely that all schools, colleges, and universities will dismiss all of their faculty and staff at the same time. It is somewhat more likely that their salaries will not be enough to live on, but they may, for a time, be able to maintain their social context and serve as a base of operations. Properties and facilities management is probably a safe bet: as long as there are properties that are considered valuable, they will need to be managed. When the time comes to dismantle them and barter off the pieces, it will help if they are still intact, and one has the keys to them. Economic Collapse in the U.S. A spontaneous soft landing is unlikely in the U.S., where a large company can decide to shut its doors by executive decision, laying off personnel and auctioning off capital equipment and inventory. Since in many cases the equipment is leased and the inventory is just in time and therefore very thin, a business can be made to evaporate virtually overnight. Since many executives may decide to cut their losses all at once, seeing the same economic projections and interpreting them similarly, the effect on communities can be utterly devastating. Most people in the U.S. cannot survive very long without an income. This may sound curious to some people - how can anyone, anywhere survive without an income? Well, in post-collapse Russia, if you didn’t pay rent or utilities - because no-one else was paying them either - and if you grew or gathered a bit of your own food, and you had some friends and relatives to help you out, then an income was not a prerequisite for survival. Most people got by, somehow. But most people in the U.S., once their savings are depleted, would in due course be forced to live in their car, or in some secluded stretch of woods, in a tent, or under a tarp. There is no mechanism by which landlords can be made not to evict deadbeat tenants, or banks be prevailed upon not to foreclose on nonperforming loans. Once enough residential and commercial real estate becomes vacant, and law enforcement becomes lax or nonexistent, squatting becomes a real possibility. Squatters usually find it hard to get mail and other services, but this is a very minor issue. More importantly, they can be easily dislodged again and again. Homelessness The term “loitering” does not translate into Russian. The closest equivalent one can find is something along the lines of “hanging around” or “wasting time”, in public. This is important, because once nobody has a job to go to, the two choices they are presented with are sitting at home, and, as it were, loitering. If loitering is illegal, then sitting at home becomes the only choice. The U.S. and the Soviet Union were at two extremes of a continuum between the public and the private. In the Soviet Union, most land was open to the public. Even apartments were often communal, meaning that the bedrooms were private, but the kitchen, bathroom, and hallway were common areas. In the U.S., most of the land is privately owned, some by people who put up signs threatening to shoot trespassers. Most public places are in fact private, marked “Customers Only” and “No Loitering”. Where there are public parks, these are often “closed” at night, and anyone trying to spend a night there is likely to be told to “move along” by the police. After the collapse, Russia experienced a swelling of the ranks of people described by the acronym “BOMZh”, which is actually short for “BOMZh i Z”, and stands for “persons without a definite place of residence or employment”. The bomzhies, as they came to be called, often inhabited unused bits of the urban or rural landscape, where, with nobody to tell them to “move along” they were left largely in peace. Such an indefinite place of residence was often referred to as bomzhatnik. English badly needs a term for that. Perhaps we could call it a “bum garden” - it is as much a garden as an “office park” is a park. When the U.S. economy collapses, one would expect employment rates, and, with them, residency rates, to plummet. It is hard to estimate what percentage of the U.S. population would, as a result, become homeless, but it could be quite high, perhaps becoming so commonplace as to remove the stigma. A country where most of the neighborhoods are structured so as to exclude people of inadequate means, in order to preserve property values, is not a pleasant place to be a bum. Then again, when property values start dropping to zero, we may find that some of the properties spontaneously re-zone themselves into “bum gardens”, with no political will or power anywhere to do anything about it. I do not mean to imply that Russian bums have a good time of it. But because most of the Russian population was able to keep their place of residence in spite of a collapsing economy, the percentage of bomzhies in the general population never made it into the double digits. These most unfortunate cases led short, brutal lives, often in an alcoholic haze, and accounted for quite a lot of Russia’s spike in post-collapse mortality. Some of them were refugees - Russians ethnically cleansed from the newly independent, suddenly nationalistic republics - who could not be easily reabsorbed into the Russian population due to Russia’s chronic housing shortage. Communal Survival Russia’s chronic housing shortage was partly caused by the spectacular decline of Russian agriculture, which caused people to migrate to the cities, and partly due simply to the inability of the government to put up buildings quickly enough. What the government wanted to put up was invariably an apartment building: 5 floors, 9 floors, and even some 14-floor towers. The buildings went up on vacant, or vacated, land, and were usually surrounded by a generous portion of wasteland, which, in the smaller cities and towns, and in places where the soil is not frozen year-round, or covered with sulfur or soot from a nearby factory, was quickly converted into kitchen gardens. The quality of construction always looked a bit shabby, but has turned out to be surprisingly sound structurally and quite practical. Mostly it was reinforced concrete slab construction, with ceramic tile on the outside and hard plaster for insulation on the inside. It was cheap to heat, and usually had heat, at least enough of it so that the pipes wouldn’t freeze, by a gigantic central boiler that served an entire neighborhood. One often hears that the shabbiest of these Soviet-era apartment blocks, termed “Khrushcheby” - a melding of Khrushchev, who ordered them built, and “trushcheby” (slums) - are about to start collapsing, but they haven’t done so yet. Yes, they are dank and dreary, and the walls are cracked, and the roof often leaks, and the hallways are dark and smell of urine, but it’s housing. Because apartments were so hard to come by, with waiting lists stretched out for decades, several generations generally lived together. This was often an unpleasant, stressful, and even traumatic way to live, but also very cheap. Grandparents often did a lot of the work of raising children, while adults worked. When the economy collapsed, it was often the grandparents who took to serious gardening and raised food during the summer months. Working-age people took to experimenting in the black market, with mixed results: some would get lucky and strike it rich, while for others it was lean times. With enough people living together, these accidental disparities tended to even out at least to some extent. A curious reversal took place. Whereas before the collapse, parents were often in a position to provide some financial help to their adult children, now the opposite is true. Older people who do not have children are much more likely to live in poverty than those who have children to support them. Once financial capital is wiped out, human capital becomes essential. A key difference between Russia and the U.S. is that Russians, like most people around the world, generally spend their entire lives living in one place, whereas Americans move around constantly. Russians generally know, or at least recognize, most of the people who surround them. When the economy collapses, everyone has to confront an unfamiliar situation. The Russians, at least, did not have to confront it in the company of complete strangers. On the other hand, Americans are far more likely than Russians to help out strangers, at least when they have something to spare. Another element that was helpful to Russians was a particular feature of Russian culture: since money was not particularly useful in the Soviet era economy, and did not convey status or success, it was not particularly prized either, and shared rather freely. Friends thought nothing of helping each other out in times of need. It was important that everyone had some, not that one had more than the others. With the arrival of market economics, this cultural trait disappeared, but it persisted long enough to help people to survive the transition. Smelling the Roses Another note on culture: once the economy collapses, there is generally less to do, making it a good time for the naturally idle and a bad time for those predisposed to keeping busy. Soviet-era culture had room for two types of activity: normal, which generally meant avoiding breaking a sweat, and heroic. Normal activity was expected, and there was never any reason to do it harder than expected. In fact, that sort of thing tended to be frowned upon by “the collective”, or the rank and file. Heroic activity was celebrated, but not necessarily rewarded financially. Russians tend to look in bemused puzzlement on the American compulsion to “work hard and play hard”. The term “career” was in the Soviet days a pejorative term - the attribute of a “careerist” - greedy, unscrupulous, overly “ambitious” (also a pejorative term). Terms like “success” and “achievement” were very rarely applied on a personal level, because they sounded overweening and pompous. They were reserved for bombastic public pronouncements about the great successes of the Soviet people. Not that positive personal characteristics did not exist: on a personal level, there was respect given to talent, professionalism, decency, sometimes even creativity. But “hard worker”, to a Russian, sounded a lot like “idiot”. A collapsing economy is especially hard on those who are accustomed to prompt, courteous service. In the Soviet Union, most official service was rude and slow, and involved standing in long lines. Many of the products that were in short supply could not be obtained even in this manner, and required something called blat: special, unofficial access or favor. The exchange of personal favors was far more important to the actual functioning of the economy than the exchange of money. To Russians, blat is almost a sacred thing: a vital part of culture that holds society together. It is also the only part of the economy that is collapse-proof, and, as such, a valuable cultural adaptation. Most Americans have heard of Communism, and automatically believe that it is an apt description of the Soviet system, even though there was nothing particularly communal about a welfare state and a vast industrial empire run by an elitist central planning bureaucracy. But very few of them have ever heard of the real operative “ism” that dominated Soviet life: Dofenism, which can be loosely translated as “not giving a rat’s ass”. A lot of people, more and more during the “stagnation” period of the 1980’s, felt nothing but contempt for the system, did what little they had to get by (night watchman and furnace stoker were favorite jobs among the highly educated) and got all their pleasure from their friends, from their reading, or from nature. This sort of disposition may seem like a cop-out, but when there is a collapse on the horizon, it works as psychological insurance: instead of going through the agonizing process of losing and rediscovering one’s identity in a post-collapse environment, one could simply sit back and watch events unfold. If you are currently “a mover and a shaker”, of things or people or whatever, then collapse will surely come as a shock to you, and it will take you a long time, perhaps forever, to find more things to move and to shake to your satisfaction. However, if your current occupation is as a keen observer of grass and trees, then, post-collapse, you could take on something else that’s useful, such as dismantling useless things. Asset Stripping Russia’s post-collapse economy was for a time dominated by one type of wholesale business: asset stripping. To put it in an American setting: suppose you have title, or otherwise unhindered access, to an entire suburban subdivision, which is no longer accessible by transportation, either public or private, too far to reach by bicycle, and is generally no longer suitable for its intended purpose of housing fully employed commuters who shop at the now defunct nearby mall. After the mortgages are foreclosed and the properties repossessed, what more is there to do, except board it all up and let it rot? Well, what has been developed can be just as easily undeveloped. What you do is strip it of anything valuable or reusable, and either sell or stockpile the materials. Pull the copper out of the streets and the walls. Haul away the curbs and the utility poles. Take down the vinyl siding. Yank out the fiberglass insulation. The sinks and windows can surely find a new use somewhere else, especially if no new ones are being made. Having bits of the landscape disappear can be a rude surprise. One summer I arrived in St. Petersburg and found that a new scourge had descended on the land while I was gone: a lot of manhole covers were mysteriously missing. Nobody knew where they went or who profited from their removal. One guess was that the municipal workers, who hadn’t been paid in months, took them home with them, to be returned once they got paid. They did eventually reappear, so there may be some merit to this theory. With the gaping manholes positioned throughout the city like so many anteater traps for cars, you had the choice of driving either very slowly and carefully, or very fast, and betting your life on the proper functioning of the shock absorbers. Post-collapse Russia’s housing stock stayed largely intact, but an orgy of asset stripping of a different kind took place: not just left-over inventory, but entire factories were stripped down and exported. What went on in Russia, under the guise of privatization, is a subject for a different article, but whether it’s called “privatization” or “liquidation” or “theft” doesn’t matter: those with title to something worthless will find a way to extract value from it, while making it even more worthless. An abandoned suburban subdivision might be worthless as housing, but valuable as a toxic waste dump. Just because the economy has collapsed in the most oil-addicted country on earth doesn’t necessarily mean that things are just as bad everywhere else. As the Soviet example shows, if the entire country is for sale, buyers will materialize out of nowhere, crate it up, and haul it away. They will export everything: furnishings, equipment, works of art, antiques. The last remnant of industrial activity is usually the scrap iron business. There seems to be no limit to the amount of iron that can be extracted from a mature post-industrial site. Food The dismal state of Soviet agriculture turned out to be paradoxically beneficial in fostering a kitchen garden economy, which helped Russians to survive the collapse. At one point it became generally understood that 10% of the farmland - the part allocated to private plots - was used to produce 90% of the food. Beyond underscoring the gross inadequacies of Soviet-style command and control industrial agriculture, it is indicative of a general fact: agriculture is far more efficient when it is carried out on a small scale, using manual labor. Russians always grew some of their own food, and scarcity of high-quality produce in the government stores kept the kitchen garden tradition going during even the more prosperous times of the 60s and the 70s. After the collapse, these kitchen gardens turned out to be lifesavers. What many Russians practiced, either through tradition or by trial and error, or sheer laziness, was in some ways akin to the new organic farming techniques. Many productive plots in Russia look like a riot of herbs, vegetables, and flowers growing in wild profusion. Forests in Russia have always been used as an important additional source of food. Russians recognize, and eat, just about every edible mushroom variety, and all of the edible berries. During the peak mushroom season, which is generally in the fall, forests are overrun with mushroom-pickers. The mushrooms are either pickled or dried and stored, and often last throughout the winter. Recreational Drug Use A rather striking similarity between Russians and Americans is their propensity to self-medicate. While the Russian has traditionally been single-heartedly dedicated to the pursuit of vodka, the American is more likely than not to have also tried cannabis. Cocaine has also had a big effect on American culture, as have opiates. There are differences as well: the Russian is somewhat less likely to drink alone, or to be apprehended for drinking, or being drunk, in public. To a Russian, being drunk is almost a sacred right; to an American, it is a guilty pleasure. Many of the unhappier Americans are forced by their circumstances to drink and drive; this does not make them, nor the other drivers, any happier. The Russian can get furiously drunk in public, stagger about singing patriotic songs, fall into a snow bank, and either freeze to death or be carted off to a drunk tank. All this produces little or no remorse in him. Based on my reading of H. L. Mencken, America was also once upon a time a land of happy drunks, where a whiskey bottle would be passed around the courtroom at the start of proceeding, and where a drunken jury would later render a drunken verdict, but the prohibition ruined all that. Russia’s prohibition lasted only a few short years, when Gorbachev tried to save the nation from itself, and failed miserably. When the economy collapses, hard-drinking people everywhere find all the more reason to get drunk, but much less wherewithal with which to procure drink. In Russia, innovative market-based solutions were quickly improvised, which it was my privilege to observe. It was summer, and I was on a local electric train heading out of St. Petersburg. I stood in the vestibule of the car, and observed rainbows (it had just rained) through the missing windowpane. Soon, activity within the vestibule caught my attention: at each stop, grannies with jugs of moonshine would approach the car door and offer a sniff to the eager customers waiting inside. Price and quality were quickly discussed, an agreed-upon quantity was dispensed in exchange for a fistful of notes, jug to mug, and the train moved on. It was a tense atmosphere, because along with the paying customers there came many others, who were simply along for the ride, but expected their fair share nevertheless. I was forced to make a hasty exit, because the freeloaders thought I was taking up valuable freeloading space. There might be a few moonshine-makers left in rural parts of the United States, but most of the country seems to be addicted to cans and bottles of beer, or jugs, plastic or glass, of liquor. When this source dries up due to problems with interstate trucking, local breweries will no doubt continue to operate, and even expand production, to cope with both old and new demand, but there will still be plenty of room for improvisation. I would also expect cannabis to become even more widespread; it makes people less prone to violence than liquor, which is good, but it also stimulates their appetite, which is bad if there isn’t a lot of food. Still, it is much cheaper to produce than alcohol, which requires either grain or natural gas and complicated chemistry. In all, I expect drugs and alcohol to become one of the largest short-term post-collapse entrepreneurial opportunities in the United States, along with asset stripping, and security. Security Security in post-collapse Soviet Union was, shall we say, lax. I came through unscathed, but I know quite a few people who did not. A childhood friend of mine and her son were killed in their apartment over the measly sum of 100 dollars. An elderly lady I know was knocked out and had her jaw broken by a burglar who waited outside her door for her to come home, assaulted her, took her keys, and looted her place. There is an infinite supply of stories of this sort. Empires are held together through violence or the threat of violence. Both the U.S. and Russia were, and are, serviced by a legion of servants whose expertise is in using violence: soldiers, policemen, prison wardens, and private security consultants. Both countries have a surplus of battle-hardened men who have killed, and who are psychologically damaged by the experience, and have no qualms about taking human life. In both countries, there are many, many people whose stock in trade is their use of violence, in offense or defense. No matter what else happens, they will be employed, or self-employed; preferably the former. In a post-collapse situation, all of these violent men automatically fall into the general category of private security consultants. They have a way of creating enough work to keep their entire tribe busy: if you don’t hire them, they will still do the work, but against you rather than for you. Rackets of various sizes and shapes proliferate, and, if you have some property to protect, or wish to get something done, a great deal of your time and energy becomes absorbed by keeping your private security organization happy and effective. To round out the violent part of the population, there are also plenty of criminals. As their sentences expire, they are released into the wild, and return to a life of violent crime, but now there is nobody to lock them up again because the machinery of law enforcement has broken down due to lack of funds. This further exacerbates the need for private security, and puts those who cannot afford it at additional risk. There is a continuum of sorts between those who can provide security and mere thugs. Those who can provide security also tend to know how to either employ or otherwise dispose of mere thugs. Thus, from the point of view of an uneducated security consumer, it is very important to work with an organization rather than with individuals. To be fair, the need for security is huge: with a large number of desperate people about, anything that is not watched will be stolen. The scope of security-related activities is huge: from sleepless grannies who sit in watch over the cucumber patch to bicycle parking lot attendants to house-sitters, and all the way to armed convoys and snipers on rooftops. As the government, with its policing and law enforcement functions, atrophies, private, improvised security measures cover the security gap it leaves behind. In Russia, there was a period of years during which the police was basically not functioning: they had no equipment, no budget, and their salaries were not sufficient for survival. Murders went unsolved, muggings and burglaries were not even investigated. The police could only survive through graft. There was a substantial amount of melding between the police and organized crime. As the economy came back, it all got sorted out, to some extent. In a case where there is no reason to expect the economy to ever come back, one must learn how to make strange new friends, and keep them, for life. Loss of Normalcy An early victim of collapse is the sense of normalcy. People are initially shocked, but quickly forget that such a thing ever existed, except for the odd vague tinge of nostalgia. Normalcy is not exactly normal: in an industrial economy, the sense of normalcy is an artificial, manufactured item. We may be hurtling towards environmental doom, and thankfully never quite get there because of resource depletion, but, in the meantime, the lights are on, there is traffic on the streets, and, even if the lights go out for a while due to a blackout, they will be back on in due course, and the shops will reopen. Business as usual will resume. The sumptuous buffet lunch will be served on time, so that the assembled luminaries can resume discussion of measured steps we all need to take to avert certain disaster. The lunch is not served; then the lights go off. At some point, somebody calls the whole thing a farce, and the luminaries adjourn, forever. In Russia, normalcy broke down in a series of steps. First, people stopped being afraid to speak their mind. Then, they stopped taking the authorities seriously. Lastly, the authorities stopped taking themselves seriously. In the Soviet Union, as this thing called normalcy wore thin due to the stalemate in Afghanistan, the Chernobyl disaster, and general economic stagnation, it continued to be enforced through careful management of mass media. In the United States, as the economy fails to create enough jobs for several years in a row, and the entire economy leans towards bankruptcy, business as usual continues to be a top-selling product, or so we are led to believe. American normalcy circa 2005 seems as impregnable as Soviet normalcy circa 1985 once seemed. If there is a difference between the Soviet and the American approach to maintaining a sense of normalcy, it is this: the Soviets tried to maintain it by force, while the Americans’ superior approach is to maintain theirs through fear. You tend to feel more normal if you fear falling off your perch, and cling to it for dear life, than if somebody nails your feet to it. More to the point: in a consumer society, anything that puts people off their shopping is dangerously disruptive, and all consumers sense this. Any expression of the truth about our lack of prospects for continued existence as a highly developed, prosperous industrial society is disruptive to the consumerist collective unconscious. There is a herd instinct to reject it, and therefore it fails, not through any overt action, but by failing to turn a profit, because it is unpopular. In spite of this small difference in how normalcy is or was enforced, it was, and is being brought down, in the late Soviet Union as in contemporary United States, through almost identical means, though with different technology. In the Soviet Union, there was something called samizdat, or self-publishing: with the help of manual typewriters and carbon paper, Russian dissidents managed to circulate enough material to neutralize the effects of enforced normalcy. In contemporary United States, we have web sites and bloggers: different technology, same difference. These are writings for which enforced normalcy is no longer the norm; it is the truth - or at least someone’s earnest approximation of it. So what has become of these Soviet mavericks, some of whom foretold the coming collapse with some accuracy? To be brief, they faded from view. Both tragically and ironically, those who become experts in explaining the faults of the system and in predicting the course of its demise are very much part of the system. When the system disappears, so does their area of expertise, and their audience. People stop intellectualizing their predicament and start trying to escape it - through drink or drugs or creativity or cunning - but they have no time for pondering the larger context. Political Apathy Before, during, and immediately after the Soviet collapse, there was a great deal of political activity by groups we might regard as progressive: liberal, environmentalist, pro-democracy reformers. These grew out of the dissident movements of the Soviet era, and made quite a significant impact for a time. A decade later “democracy” and “liberalism” are generally considered dirty words in Russia, commonly associated with exploitation of Russia by foreigners and other rot. The Russian state is centrist, with authoritarian tendencies. Most Russians dislike and distrust their government, but are afraid of weakness, and want a strong hand. It is easy to see why political idealism fails to thrive in the murky post-collapse political environment. There is a strong pull to the right by nationalists who want to find scapegoats (inevitably, foreigners and ethnic minorities), a strong pull to the center by members of the ancien regime trying to hold on to remnants of their power, and a great upwelling of indecision, confusion, and inconclusive debate on the left, by those trying to do good, and failing to do anything. Sometimes the liberals get a chance to try an experiment or two. Yegor Gaidar got to try some liberal economic reforms under Yeltsin. He is a tragicomic figure, and many Russians now cringe when remembering his efforts. The liberals, reformists, and progressives in the United States, whether self-styled or so labeled, have had a hard time implementing their agenda. Even their few hard-won victories, such as Social Security, may get dismantled. Even when they managed to elect a president more to their liking, the effects were, by Western standards, reactionary. There was the Carter doctrine, according to which the United States will protect its access to oil by military aggression if necessary. There was also Clinton’s welfare reform, which forced single mothers to work menial jobs while placing their children in substandard daycare in order to have access to social services. People in the United States have a broadly similar attitude towards politics with people of the Soviet Union. In the U.S., this is often referred to as “voter apathy”, but it might be more accurately described as disgust with politics. The Soviet Union had a single, entrenched, systemically corrupt political party, which held a monopoly on power. The U.S. has two entrenched, systemically corrupt political parties, whose positions are often indistinguishable, and which together hold a monopoly on power. In either case, there is, or was, a single governing elite, but in the United States it organized itself into opposing teams to make its stranglehold on power seem more sportsmanlike. In the U.S., there is an industry of political commentators and pundits, which is devoted to inflaming political passions, as much as possible, and especially before elections. This is similar to what sports writers and commentators do, to draw attention to their game. It seems that the main force behind political discourse in the U.S. is boredom: one could talk about the weather, one’s job, one’s mortgage and how it relates to current and projected property values, cars and the traffic situation, sports, and, far behind sports, politics. Although people often bemoan political apathy as if it were a grave social ill, it seems to me that this is just as it should be. Why should essentially powerless people want to engage in a humiliating farce designed to demonstrate the legitimacy of those who wield the power? In Soviet-era Russia, intelligent people did their best to ignore the Communists: paying attention to them, whether through criticism or praise, would only serve to give them comfort and encouragement, making them feel as if they mattered. Why should Americans want to act any differently with regard to the Republicans and the Democrats? For love of donkeys and elephants? Political Dysfunction As I mentioned before, crisis-mitigating agendas for “us” to implement, whether they involve wars over access to resources, nuclear plant construction, wind farms or hydrogen dreams, are not likely to be implemented, because this “we” entity will no longer be functional. If we are not likely to be able to implement our agenda prior the collapse, then whatever is left of us is even less likely to do so after. There is no reason to organize politically if you are trying to do something useful. But if you want to prepare to take advantage of a bad situation - well, that’s a different story! Politics has great potential for making a bad situation worse, much worse. It can cause war, ethnic cleansing and genocide. Whenever people gather into political organizations, whether voluntarily or forcibly, it is a sign of trouble. I was at the annual meeting of my community garden recently, and among the generally placid and shy group of gardeners there were a couple of self-termed “activists”. Before too long, one of these was raising the question of expelling people. People who don’t show up for annual meetings and don’t sign up to do cleaning and composting and so on - why are they allowed to hold on to their plots? Well, some of the “rogue element” the activist was referring to consisted of elderly Russians, who, due to their extensive experience with such things during the Soviet times, are exceedingly unlikely to ever be compelled to take part in communal labor or sit through community meetings. Frankly, they would prefer death. But they also love to garden. The reason the “element” is allowed to exist in this particular community garden is because the woman who runs the place allows them to hold on to their plots. It is her decision: she exercises leadership, and she does not engage in politics. She makes the garden function, and allows the activists to make their noise, once a year, with no ill effects. But if the situation were to change and the kitchen garden suddenly became a source of sustenance rather than a hobby, how long would it take before the activist element would start demanding more power and asserting its authority? Leadership is certainly a helpful quality in a crisis, which is a particularly bad time for lengthy deliberations and debates. In any situation, some people are better equipped to handle it than others, and can help others by giving them directions. They naturally accumulate a certain amount of power for themselves, and this is fine as long as enough people benefit from it, and as long as nobody is harmed or oppressed. Such people often spontaneously emerge in a crisis. An equally useful quality in a crisis is apathy. The Russian people are exceptionally patient: even in the worst of post-collapse times, they did not riot, and there were no significant protests. They coped as best they could. The safest group of people to be with in a crisis is one that does not share strong ideological convictions, is not easily swayed by argument, and does not possess an overdeveloped sense of identity. Clueless busybodies who feel that “we must do something” and can be spun around by any half-wit demagogue are bad enough, but the most dangerous group, and one to watch out for and run from, is a group of political activists resolved to organize and promote some program or other; even if the program is benign, and even if it is beneficial, the politicized approach to solving it might not be. As the saying goes, revolutions eat their children. Then they turn on everyone else. The life of a refugee is a form of survival; staying and fighting an organized mob generally isn’t. The Balkans are the post-collapse nightmare everyone is familiar with. Within the former Soviet Union, Georgia is the prime example of nationalist politics pursued to the point of national disintegration. After winning its independence, Georgia went through a paroxysm of nationalist fervor, resulting in a somewhat smaller, slightly less populous, permanently defunct state, with two former provinces stuck in permanent political limbo, because, apparently, the world has lost its ability to redraw political boundaries. The U.S. is much more like the Balkans than like Russia, which is inhabited by a fairly homogeneous Caucasian/Asian population. The U.S. is very much segregated, usually by race, often by ethnicity, and always by income level. During prosperous times, it is kept relatively calm by keeping a percentage of people in jail that has set an all-time world record. During less prosperous times, it is at a big risk of political explosion. Multi-ethnic societies are fragile; when they fall apart, everyone loses. Collapse in the U.S. In the U.S., there appear to be few ways to make the collapse scenario work out smoothly for oneself and one’s family. The whole place seems too far gone in a particular, unsustainable direction. It is a real creative challenge, and we should be giving it a lot of serious thought. Suppose you live in a big city, in an apartment or a condo. You depend on municipal services for survival. A week without electricity, or heat, or water, or gas, or garbage removal spells extreme discomfort. Any two of these is a calamity. Any three is a disaster. Food comes from the supermarket, with help from the cash machine or the credit card slot at the checkout station. Clean clothes come from the laundromat, which requires electricity, water, and natural gas. Once all the businesses have shut down and your apartment is cold, dark, smells like garbage because it isn’t being collected and like excrement because the toilet doesn’t flush, perhaps it is time to go camping and explore the great outdoors. So let’s consider the countryside. Suppose that you own a homestead and have a tiny mortgage that shrivels to next to nothing after a good bout of inflation, or that you own it free and clear. If it’s in a developed suburban subdivision, there will still be problems with taxes, code enforcement, strangers from outer space living next door, and other boondoggles, which could get worse as conditions deteriorate. Distressed municipalities may at first attempt jack up rates to cover their costs instead of simply closing up shop. In a misguided effort to save property values, they may also attempt to enforce codes against such necessities as compost heaps, outhouses, chicken coops, and raising crops on your front lawn. Keep in mind, also, that the pesticides and herbicides lavished on lawns and golf courses leave toxic residues. Perhaps the best thing to do with suburbia is to abandon it altogether. A small farm offers somewhat better possibilities for farming, but most farms in the U.S. are mortgaged to the hilt, and most land that has been under intensive cultivation has been mercilessly bombarded with chemical fertilizers, herbicides and insecticides, making it an unhealthy place, inhabited by men with tiny sperm counts. Small farms tend to be lonely places, and many, without access to diesel or gasoline, would become dangerously remote. You will need neighbors to barter with, to help you, and to keep you company. Even a small farm is probably overkill in terms of the amount of farmland available, because without the ability to get crops to market, or a functioning cash economy to sell them in, there is no reason to grow a large surplus of food. Tens of acres are a waste when all you need is a few thousand square feet. Many Russian families managed to survive with the help of a standard garden plot of one sotka, which is 100 square meters, or, if you prefer, 0.024710538 acres, or 1076.391 square feet. What is needed, of course is a small town or a village: a relatively small, relatively dense settlement, with about an acre of farmland for every 30 or so people, and with zoning regulations designed for fair use and sustainability, not opportunities for capital investment, growth, property values, or other sorts of “development”. Further, it would have to be a place where people know each other and are willing to help each other - a real community. There may still be a few hundred communities like that tucked away here and there in the poorer counties in the United States, but there are not enough of them, and most of us would not be welcome there. Investment Advice People often come to me and say: “I hear that the U.S. economy is going to collapse soon; what investment tips can you give me, so that I can adjust my portfolio accordingly?” Well, I am not a professional investment adviser, so I risk nothing by making some suggestions. The nuclear scare gave rise to the archetype of the American Survivalist, holed up in the hills, with a bomb shelter, a fantastic number of tins of spam, an assortment of guns, and plentiful ammo with which to fight off similar idiots from further downhill. And, of course, an American flag. This sort of survivalism is about as good as burying yourself alive, I suppose. The idea of stockpiling is not altogether bad, though. Stockpiling food is, of course, a rotten idea, literally. But certain manufactured items are certainly worth considering. Suppose you have a retirement account, or some mutual funds. And suppose you know for certain that it won’t exist by the time you are scheduled to retire. And suppose you realize that you can currently buy a lot of good stuff that has a long shelf life and will be needed, and valuable, far into the future. And suppose, further, that you have a small amount of storage space: a few hundred square feet. Now, what are you going to do? Sit by and watch your savings evaporate? Or take the tax hit and invest in things that are not composed of vapor. Once the cash machines are out of cash, the stock ticker stops ticking, and the retail chain breaks down, people will still have basic needs. There will be flea markets to fill these needs, using whatever local token of exchange is available; bundles of $100 bills, bits of gold chain, packs of cigarettes, or what have you. It’s not a bad idea to own a few of everything you will need, but you should invest in things you will be able to trade for things you will need. Think of consumer necessities that require high technology and have a long shelf life. Here are some suggestions to get you started: condoms, razor blades, and drugs (over-the-counter and prescription). Rechargeable batteries (and solar chargers) are sure to become a prized item (Ni-MH are the less toxic ones). Toiletries, such as good soap, will be luxury items. Fill some containers, nitrogen-pack them so that nothing rusts or rots, and store them somewhere. After the Soviet collapse, there swiftly appeared a category of itinerant merchants who provided people with access to imported products. To procure their wares, these people had to travel abroad, to Poland, to China, to Turkey, on trains, carrying goods back and forth in their baggage. They would exchange a suitcase of Russian-made watches for a suitcase of other, more useful consumer products, such as shampoo or razor blades. They would have to grease the palms of officials along their route, and were often robbed. There was a period of time when these people, called “chelnoki”, which is Russian for “shuttles”, were the only source of consumer products. The products were often factory rejects, damaged, or past their sell-by date, but this did not make them any less valuable. Based on their example, it is possible to predict which items will be in high demand, and to stockpile these items ahead of time, as a hedge against economic collapse. Note that chelnoki had intact, economies to trade with, accessible by train - while this is not guaranteed to be the case in the U.S. A stockpile of this sort, in a walkable, socially stable place, where you know everybody, where you have some close friends and some family, where you own your shelter and some land free and clear, and where you can grow most of your own food, should enable you survive economic collapse without too much trouble. And, who knows, maybe you will even find happiness there. Conclusion Although the basic, and obvious, conclusion is that the United States is worse prepared for economic collapse than Russia was, and will have a harder time than Russia had, there are some cultural facets to the United States that are not entirely unhelpful. To close on an optimistic note, I will mention three of these. I will say nothing particularly original here, so feel free to whistle your own cheerful tune as you read this. Firstly, and perhaps most surprisingly, Americans make better Communists than Russians ever did, or cared to try. They excel at communal living, with plenty of good, stable roommate situations, which compensate for their weak, alienated, or nonexistent families. These roommate situations can be used as a template, and scaled up to village-sized self-organized communities. Communism (obviously, under a mo